In Vincent Müller (ed.), Fundamental Issues of Artificial Intelligence. Springer. pp. 553-571 (2016)
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Abstract |
There is, in some quarters, concern about high–level machine intelligence and superintelligent AI coming up in a few decades, bringing with it significant risks for humanity. In other quarters, these issues are ignored or considered science fiction. We wanted to clarify what the distribution of opinions actually is, what probability the best experts currently assign to high–level machine intelligence coming up within a particular time–frame, which risks they see with that development, and how fast they see these developing. We thus designed a brief questionnaire and distributed it to four groups of experts in 2012/2013. The median estimate of respondents was for a one in two chance that high-level machine intelligence will be developed around 2040-2050, rising to a nine in ten chance by 2075. Experts expect that systems will move on to superintelligence in less than 30 years thereafter. They estimate the chance is about one in three that this development turns out to be ‘bad’ or ‘extremely bad’ for humanity.
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Keywords | artificial intelligence AI machine intelligence future of AI progress superintelligence singularity intelligence explosion humanity expert opinion |
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Reprint years | 2016 |
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References found in this work BETA
20. What Computers Can’T Do: A Critique of Artificial Reason.Hubert L. Dreyfus - 1972 - In Bernard Williams (ed.), Essays and Reviews: 1959-2002. Princeton University Press. pp. 90-100.
Is There a Future for AI Without Representation?Vincent C. Müller - 2007 - Minds and Machines 17 (1):101-115.
View all 9 references / Add more references
Citations of this work BETA
The Ethics of AI Ethics: An Evaluation of Guidelines.Thilo Hagendorff - 2020 - Minds and Machines 30 (1):99-120.
Ethics of Artificial Intelligence and Robotics.Vincent C. Müller - 2020 - In Edward Zalta (ed.), Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. Palo Alto, Cal.: CSLI, Stanford University. pp. 1-70.
Imaginative Value Sensitive Design: Using Moral Imagination Theory to Inform Responsible Technology Design.Steven Umbrello - 2020 - Science and Engineering Ethics 26 (2):575-595.
Is It Time for Robot Rights? Moral Status in Artificial Entities.Vincent C. Müller - 2021 - Ethics and Information Technology 23 (3):579–587.
On the Moral Status of Social Robots: Considering the Consciousness Criterion.Kestutis Mosakas - forthcoming - AI and Society:1-15.
View all 30 citations / Add more citations
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