AI Matters 1 (1):9-11 (2014)

Authors
Nick Bostrom
Oxford University
Vincent C. Müller
Eindhoven University of Technology
Abstract
[This is the short version of: Müller, Vincent C. and Bostrom, Nick (forthcoming 2016), ‘Future progress in artificial intelligence: A survey of expert opinion’, in Vincent C. Müller (ed.), Fundamental Issues of Artificial Intelligence (Synthese Library 377; Berlin: Springer).] - - - In some quarters, there is intense concern about high–level machine intelligence and superintelligent AI coming up in a few dec- ades, bringing with it significant risks for human- ity; in other quarters, these issues are ignored or considered science fiction. We wanted to clarify what the distribution of opinions actually is, what probability the best experts currently assign to high–level machine intelligence coming up within a particular time–frame, which risks they see with that development and how fast they see these developing. We thus designed a brief questionnaire and distributed it to four groups of experts. Overall, the results show an agreement among experts that AI systems will probably reach overall human ability around 2040-2050 and move on to superintelligence in less than 30 years thereafter. The experts say the probability is about one in three that this development turns out to be ‘bad’ or ‘extremely bad’ for humanity.
Keywords No keywords specified (fix it)
Categories (categorize this paper)
Options
Edit this record
Mark as duplicate
Export citation
Find it on Scholar
Request removal from index
Revision history

Download options

PhilArchive copy

 PhilArchive page | Other versions
External links

Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
Through your library

References found in this work BETA

Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies.Nick Bostrom (ed.) - 2014 - Oxford University Press.
20. What Computers Can’T Do: A Critique of Artificial Reason.Hubert L. Dreyfus - 1972 - In Bernard Williams (ed.), Essays and Reviews: 1959-2002. Princeton University Press. pp. 90-100.
How Long Before Superintelligence?Nick Bostrom - 1998 - International Journal of Futures Studies 2.

View all 10 references / Add more references

Citations of this work BETA

Rawls’s Original Position and Algorithmic Fairness.Ulrik Franke - 2021 - Philosophy and Technology 34 (4):1803-1817.
Editorial: Risks of General Artificial Intelligence.Vincent C. Müller - 2014 - Journal of Experimental and Theoretical Artificial Intelligence 26 (3):297-301.

Add more citations

Similar books and articles

Risks of Artificial Intelligence.Vincent C. Müller (ed.) - 2016 - CRC Press - Chapman & Hall.
Editorial: Risks of General Artificial Intelligence.Vincent C. Müller - 2014 - Journal of Experimental and Theoretical Artificial Intelligence 26 (3):297-301.
Risks of Artificial General Intelligence.Vincent C. Müller (ed.) - 2014 - Taylor & Francis (JETAI).
Challenges for Artificial Cognitive Systems.Antoni Gomila & Vincent C. Müller - 2012 - Journal of Cognitive Science 13 (4):452-469.
Ai: Its Nature and Future.Margaret A. Boden - 2016 - Oxford University Press UK.

Analytics

Added to PP index
2015-11-12

Total views
1,642 ( #2,899 of 2,498,175 )

Recent downloads (6 months)
124 ( #5,343 of 2,498,175 )

How can I increase my downloads?

Downloads

My notes