Cliometrica 12:451–480 (2018)

Philippe Mongin
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
The paper has a twofold aim. On the one hand, it provides what appears to be the first game-theoretic modeling of Napoleon’s last campaign, which ended dramatically on 18 June 1815 at Waterloo. It is specifically concerned with the decision Napoleon made on 17 June 1815 to detach part of his army against the Prussians he had defeated, though not destroyed, on 16 June at Ligny. Military historians agree that this decision was crucial but disagree about whether it was rational. Hypothesizing a zero-sum game between Napoleon and Blücher, and computing its solution, we show that it could have been a cautious strategy on the former's part to divide his army, a conclusion which runs counter to the charges of misjudgement commonly heard since Clausewitz. On the other hand, the paper addresses methodological issues. We defend its case study against the objections of irrelevance that have been raised elsewhere against “analytic narratives”, and conclude that military campaigns provide an opportunity for successful application of the formal theories of rational choice. Generalizing the argument, we finally investigate the conflict between narrative accounts – the historians' standard mode of expression – and mathematical modeling.
Keywords analytic narrative  rational choice history  zero-sum games  models vs narratives  military strategy  Napoleon  Clausewitz  Waterloo
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References found in this work BETA

Problems of Rationality.Donald Davidson - 2004 - Oxford University Press.
Who is Fooled?Donald Davidson - 2004 - In Problems of Rationality. Oxford University Press.
Economic Analysis in Historical Perspective.Brian M. Downing - 2000 - History and Theory 39 (1):88–97.

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Philippe Mongin (1950-2020).Jean Baccelli & Marcus Pivato - 2021 - Theory and Decision 90 (1):1-9.

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