Strategies in Forecasting Outcomes in Ethical Decision-Making: Identifying and Analyzing the Causes of the Problem
David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Ezio Di Nucci
Jonathan Jenkins Ichikawa
Jack Alan Reynolds
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Michael D. Mumford, Chase E. Thiel, Jared J. Caughron, Xiaoqian Wang, Alison L. Antes & Cheryl K. Stenmark
Ethics and Behavior 20 (2):110-127 (2010)
This study examined the role of key causal analysis strategies in forecasting and ethical decision-making. Undergraduate participants took on the role of the key actor in several ethical problems and were asked to identify and analyze the causes, forecast potential outcomes, and make a decision about each problem. Time pressure and analytic mindset were manipulated while participants worked through these problems. The results indicated that forecast quality was associated with decision ethicality, and the identification of the critical causes of the problem was associated with both higher quality forecasts and higher ethicality of decisions. Neither time pressure nor analytic mindset impacted forecasts or ethicality of decisions. Theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed.
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Chase E. Thiel, Shane Connelly, Lauren Harkrider, Lynn D. Devenport, Zhanna Bagdasarov, James F. Johnson & Michael D. Mumford (2013). Case-Based Knowledge and Ethics Education: Improving Learning and Transfer Through Emotionally Rich Cases. Science and Engineering Ethics 19 (1):265-286.
Lauren N. Harkrider, Chase E. Thiel, Zhanna Bagdasarov, Michael D. Mumford, James F. Johnson, Shane Connelly & Lynn D. Devenport (2012). Improving Case-Based Ethics Training with Codes of Conduct and Forecasting Content. Ethics and Behavior 22 (4):258 - 280.
Alexandra E. MacDougall, Lauren N. Harkrider, Zhanna Bagdasarov, James F. Johnson, Chase E. Thiel, Juandre Peacock, Michael D. Mumford, Lynn D. Devenport & Shane Connelly (2014). Examining the Effects of Incremental Case Presentation and Forecasting Outcomes on Case-Based Ethics Instruction. Ethics and Behavior 24 (2):126-150.
John R. Sparks & Jennifer Christie Siemens (2014). Judgment Difficulty and the Moral Intensity of Unethical Acts: A Cognitive Response Analysis of Dual Process Ethical Judgment Formation. Ethics and Behavior 24 (2):151-163.
Cheryl Stenmark (2013). Forecasting and Ethical Decision Making: What Matters? Ethics and Behavior 23 (6):445-462.
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