Model selection, simplicity, and scientific inference

Proceedings of the Philosophy of Science Association 2002 (3):S135-S149 (2002)
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Abstract

The Akaike Information Criterion can be a valuable tool of scientific inference. This statistic, or any other statistical method for that matter, cannot, however, be the whole of scientific methodology. In this paper some of the limitations of Akaikean statistical methods are discussed. It is argued that the full import of empirical evidence is realized only by adopting a richer ideal of empirical success than predictive accuracy, and that the ability of a theory to turn phenomena into accurate, agreeing measurements of causally relevant parameters contributes to the evidential support of the theory. This is illustrated by Newton's argument from orbital phenomena to the inverse-square law of gravitation.

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reprint Myrvold, Wayne C.; Harper, William L. (2002) "Model Selection, Simplicity, and Scientific Inference". Philosophy of Science 69(S3):S135-S149

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William L. Harper
University of Western Ontario

References found in this work

Instrumentalism, parsimony, and the akaike framework.Elliott Sober - 2002 - Proceedings of the Philosophy of Science Association 2002 (3):S112-S123.
Instrumentalism, Parsimony, and the Akaike Framework.Elliott Sober - 2002 - Philosophy of Science 69 (S3):S112-S123.

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