Foundations of Science 11 (4):349-368 (2006)
Authors |
|
Abstract |
To study Earth’s climate, scientists now use a variety of computer simulation models. These models disagree in some of their assumptions about the climate system, yet they are used together as complementary resources for investigating future climatic change. This paper examines and defends this use of incompatible models. I argue that climate model pluralism results both from uncertainty concerning how to best represent the climate system and from difficulties faced in evaluating the relative merits of complex models. I describe how incompatible climate models are used together in ‘multi-model ensembles’ and explain why this practice is reasonable, given scientists’ inability to identify a ‘best’ model for predicting future climate. Finally, I characterize climate model pluralism as involving both an ontic competitive pluralism and a pragmatic integrative pluralism.
|
Keywords | climate change computer simulation models pluralism uncertainty |
Categories | (categorize this paper) |
DOI | 10.1007/s10699-005-3196-x |
Options |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
Download options
References found in this work BETA
Modelling Extended Extragalactic Radio Sources.Daniela M. Bailer-Jones - 2000 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 31 (1):49-74.
Modelling Extended Extragalactic Radio Sources.Daniela M. Bailer-Jones - 2000 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 31 (1):49-74.
Citations of this work BETA
Data models, representation and adequacy-for-purpose.Alisa Bokulich & Wendy Parker - 2021 - European Journal for Philosophy of Science 11 (1):1-26.
Model Robustness as a Confirmatory Virtue: The Case of Climate Science.Elisabeth A. Lloyd - 2015 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 49:58-68.
When Climate Models Agree: The Significance of Robust Model Predictions.Wendy S. Parker - 2011 - Philosophy of Science 78 (4):579-600.
Holism, Entrenchment, and the Future of Climate Model Pluralism.Johannes Lenhard & Eric Winsberg - 2010 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 41 (3):253-262.
On Predicting Recidivism: Epistemic Risk, Tradeoffs, and Values in Machine Learning.Justin B. Biddle - forthcoming - Canadian Journal of Philosophy:1-21.
View all 57 citations / Add more citations
Similar books and articles
T. C. Chamberlin, Climate Change, and Cosmogony.R. J. - 2000 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 31 (3):293-308.
Varieties of Support and Confirmation of Climate Models.Elisabeth A. Lloyd - 2009 - Aristotelian Society Supplementary Volume 83 (1):213-232.
Toward an Understanding of Ethical Climate: Its Relationship to Ethical Behavior and Supervisory Influence. [REVIEW]James C. Wimbush & Jon M. Shepard - 1994 - Journal of Business Ethics 13 (8):637 - 647.
Confirmation and Robustness of Climate Models.Elisabeth A. Lloyd - 2010 - Philosophy of Science 77 (5):971–984.
What Do Numerical (Climate) Models Really Represent?Gabriele Gramelsberger - 2011 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 42 (2):296-302.
Moral Climate in Business Firms: A Conceptual Framework for Analysis and Change. [REVIEW]Deborah Vidaver-Cohen - 1998 - Journal of Business Ethics 17 (11):1211-1226.
Analytics
Added to PP index
2009-01-28
Total views
155 ( #74,639 of 2,499,700 )
Recent downloads (6 months)
5 ( #139,330 of 2,499,700 )
2009-01-28
Total views
155 ( #74,639 of 2,499,700 )
Recent downloads (6 months)
5 ( #139,330 of 2,499,700 )
How can I increase my downloads?
Downloads