Philosophy of Science 77 (5):985-997 (2010)

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Wendy Parker
Durham University
Abstract
Today’s most sophisticated simulation studies of future climate employ not just one climate model but a number of models. I explain why this “ensemble” approach has been adopted—namely, as a means of taking account of uncertainty—and why a comprehensive investigation of uncertainty remains elusive. I then defend a middle ground between two camps in an ongoing debate over the transformation of ensemble results into probabilistic predictions of climate change, highlighting requirements that I refer to as ownership, justification, and robustness.
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DOI 10.1086/656815
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References found in this work BETA

Understanding Pluralism in Climate Modeling.Wendy Parker - 2006 - Foundations of Science 11 (4):349-368.

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Citations of this work BETA

Values and Uncertainties in Climate Prediction, Revisited.Wendy Parker - 2014 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 46:24-30.
The Elusive Basis of Inferential Robustness.James Justus - 2012 - Philosophy of Science 79 (5):795-807.

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