Erkenntnis:1-20 (forthcoming)

Authors
William Peden
Erasmus University Rotterdam
Abstract
According to John D. Norton's Material Theory of Induction, all inductive inferences are justified by local facts, rather than their formal features or some grand principles of nature's uniformity. Recently, Richard Dawid (2015) has offered a challenge to this theory: in an adaptation of Norton's own celebrated "Dome" thought experiment, it seems that there are certain inductions that are intuitively reasonable, but which do not have any local facts that could serve to justify them in accordance with Norton's requirements. Dawid's suggestion is that “raw induction” might have a limited but important role for such inferences. I argue that the Material Theory can accommodate such inductions, because there are local facts concerning the combinatoric features of the induction’s target populations that can licence the inferences in an analogous way to existing examples of material induction. Since my arguments are largely independent of the details of the Dome, Norton's theory emerges as surprisingly robust against criticisms of excessive narrowness.
Keywords Induction  Material Theory of Induction  The Dome  Confirmation  Direct Inference  Space Invaders  Newtonianism
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DOI 10.1007/s10670-021-00448-z
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References found in this work BETA

The Uses of Argument.Stephen E. Toulmin - 1958 - Philosophy 34 (130):244-245.
The Logical Foundations of Probability.Rudolf Carnap - 1950 - Journal of Philosophy 60 (13):362-364.

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