Accuracy, Chance, and the Principal Principle

Philosophical Review 121 (2):241-275 (2012)
Abstract
In ‘A Non-Pragmatic Vindication of Probabilism’, Jim Joyce attempts to ‘depragmatize’ de Finetti’s prevision argument for the claim that our partial beliefs ought to satisfy the axioms of probability calculus. In this paper, I adapt Joyce’s argument to give a non-pragmatic vindication of various versions of David Lewis’ Principal Principle, such as the version based on Isaac Levi's account of admissibility, Michael Thau and Ned Hall's New Principle, and Jenann Ismael's Generalized Principal Principle. Joyce enumerates properties that must be had by any measure of the distance from a set of partial beliefs to the set of truth values; he shows that, on any such measure, and for any set of partial beliefs that violates the probability axioms, there is a set that satisfies those axioms that is closer to every possible set of truth values. I replace truth values by objective chances in his argument; I show that for any set of partial beliefs that violates the probability axioms or a version of the Principal Principle, there is a set that satisfies them that is closer to every possible set of objective chances.
Keywords Principal Principle  gradational accuracy  objective chance  scoring rules  partial beliefs  subjective probability  epistemic norms  probabilism
Categories (categorize this paper)
DOI 10.1215/00318108-1539098
Options
 Save to my reading list
Follow the author(s)
Edit this record
My bibliography
Export citation
Find it on Scholar
Mark as duplicate
Request removal from index
Revision history
Download options
Our Archive


Upload a copy of this paper     Check publisher's policy     Papers currently archived: 31,812
Through your library
References found in this work BETA

No references found.

Add more references

Citations of this work BETA
Immoderately Rational.Sophie Horowitz - 2014 - Philosophical Studies 167 (1):41-56.
How Valuable Are Chances?H. Orri Stefánsson & Richard Bradley - 2015 - Philosophy of Science 82 (4):602-625.
Scoring Imprecise Credences: A Mildly Immodest Proposal.Conor Mayo‐Wilson & Gregory Wheeler - 2016 - Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 92 (1):55-78.

View all 10 citations / Add more citations

Similar books and articles
Added to PP index
2010-10-21

Total downloads
237 ( #18,378 of 2,231,535 )

Recent downloads (6 months)
10 ( #47,100 of 2,231,535 )

How can I increase my downloads?

Monthly downloads
My notes
Sign in to use this feature