What Chance‐Credence Norms Should Not Be

Noûs 47 (3):177-196 (2013)
Abstract
A chance-credence norm states how an agent's credences in propositions concerning objective chances ought to relate to her credences in other propositions. The most famous such norm is the Principal Principle (PP), due to David Lewis. However, Lewis noticed that PP is too strong when combined with many accounts of chance that attempt to reduce chance facts to non-modal facts. Those who defend such accounts of chance have offered two alternative chance-credence norms: the first is Hall's and Thau's New Principle (NP); the second is Ismael's General Recipe (IP). Thus, the question arises: Should we adopt NP or IP or both? In this paper, I argue that IP has unacceptable consequences when coupled with reductionism, so we must accept NP alone
Keywords objective chance  Bayesianism  Principal Principle  reductionism  probability  undermining futures
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DOI 10.1111/nous.12047
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References found in this work BETA
Papers in Metaphysics and Epistemology.David K. Lewis - 1999 - Cambridge: Uk ;Cambridge University Press.
A Subjectivist's Guide to Objective Chance.David Lewis - 1980 - In Richard C. Jeffrey (ed.), Studies in Inductive Logic and Probability. University of California Press. pp. 83--132.
Correcting the Guide to Objective Chance.Ned Hall - 1994 - Mind 103 (412):505-518.
Two Mistakes About Credence and Chance.Ned Hall - 2004 - Australasian Journal of Philosophy 82 (1):93 – 111.
Undermining and Admissibility.Michael Thau - 1994 - Mind 103 (412):491-504.

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