Nonmonotonicity and human probabilistic reasoning
In Proceedings of the 6 T H Workshop on Uncertainty Processing. pp. 221--234 (2003)
Nonmonotonic logics allow—contrary to classical (monotone) logics— for withdrawing conclusions in the light of new evidence. Nonmonotonic reasoning is often claimed to mimic human common sense reasoning. Only a few studies, though, have investigated this claim empirically. system p is a central, broadly accepted nonmonotonic reasoning system that proposes basic rationality postulates. We previously investigated empirically a probabilistic interpretation of three selected rules of system p. We found a relatively good agreement of human reasoning and principles of nonmonotonic reasoning according to the coherence interpretation of system p. This study reports an experiment on the cautious monotonicity Rule and its “incautious” counterpart that is not contained in system p, namely the monotonicity Rule. In accordance with our previous results, the data suggest that people reason nonmonotonically: the subjects in the cautious monotonicity condition infer significantly tighter intervals close to the coherence interpretation of system p compared with the subjects in the incautious monotonicity condition where rather wide (and hence non-informative) intervals are inferred.
|Keywords||No keywords specified (fix it)|
|Categories||categorize this paper)|
References found in this work BETA
No references found.
Citations of this work BETA
Formal Epistemology and the New Paradigm Psychology of Reasoning.Niki Pfeifer & Igor Douven - 2013 - Review of Philosophy and Psychology (2):1-23.
Similar books and articles
Is Human Reasoning About Nonmonotonic Conditionals Probabilistically Coherent?Niki Pfeifer & G. D. Kleiter - 2006 - In Proceedings of the 7 T H Workshop on Uncertainty Processing. pp. 138--150.
Experiments on Nonmonotonic Reasoning. The Coherence of Human Probability Judgments.Niki Pfeifer & G. D. Kleiter - 2002 - In H. Leitgeb & G. Schurz (eds.), Pre-Proceedings of the 1 s T Salzburg Workshop on Paradigms of Cognition.
Uncertain Deductive Reasoning.Niki Pfeifer & G. D. Kleiter - 2011 - In K. Manktelow, D. E. Over & S. Elqayam (eds.), The Science of Reason: A Festschrift for Jonathan St B.T. Evans. Psychology Press. pp. 145--166.
Towards a Mental Probability Logic.Niki Pfeifer & G. D. Kleiter - 2005 - Psychologica Belgica 45 (1):71--99.
Nonmonotonic Probabilistic Reasoning Under Variable-Strength Inheritance with Overriding.Thomas Lukasiewicz - 2005 - Synthese 146 (1-2):153 - 169.
Nonmonotonic Reasoning: Logical Foundations of Commonsense.Gerhard Brewka (ed.) - 1991 - Cambridge University Press.
Nonmonotonic Reasoning: From Finitary Relations to Infinitary Inference Operations.Michael Freund & Daniel Lehmann - 1994 - Studia Logica 53 (2):161 - 201.
Added to index2011-04-22
Total downloads42 ( #123,552 of 2,170,276 )
Recent downloads (6 months)1 ( #345,565 of 2,170,276 )
How can I increase my downloads?