Uncertain deductive reasoning

In K. Manktelow, D. E. Over & S. Elqayam (eds.), The Science of Reason: A Festschrift for Jonathan St B.T. Evans. Psychology Press. pp. 145--166 (2011)
  Copy   BIBTEX

Abstract

Probabilistic models have started to replace classical logic as the standard reference paradigm in human deductive reasoning. Mental probability logic emphasizes general principles where human reasoning deviates from classical logic, but agrees with a probabilistic approach (like nonmonotonicity or the conditional event interpretation of conditionals). This contribution consists of two parts. In the first part we discuss general features of reasoning systems including consequence relations, how uncertainty may enter argument forms, probability intervals, and probabilistic informativeness. These concepts are of central importance for the psychological task analysis. In the second part we report new experimental data on the paradoxes of the material conditional, the probabilistic modus ponens, the complement task, and data on the probabilistic truth table task. The results of the experiments provide evidence for the hypothesis that people represent indicative conditionals by conditional probability assertions.

Links

PhilArchive



    Upload a copy of this work     Papers currently archived: 92,168

External links

  • This entry has no external links. Add one.
Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server

Through your library

Similar books and articles

Reasoning with conditionals.Guy Politzer - 2007 - Topoi 26 (1):79-95.
On Mental Probability Logic.Niki Pfeifer - 2006 - Dissertation, Department of Psychology, University of Salzburg
Mental probability logic.Niki Pfeifer & Gernot D. Kleiter - 2009 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 32 (1):98-99.
Probabilistic effects in data selection.Mike Oaksford, Nick Chater & Becki Grainger - 1999 - Thinking and Reasoning 5 (3):193 – 243.
Towards a mental probability logic.Niki Pfeifer & G. D. Kleiter - 2005 - Psychologica Belgica 45 (1):71--99.
Probabilistic Reasoning in Expert Systems Reconstructed in Probability Semantics.Roger M. Cooke - 1986 - PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1986:409 - 421.

Analytics

Added to PP
2011-04-22

Downloads
54 (#296,837)

6 months
1 (#1,475,915)

Historical graph of downloads
How can I increase my downloads?

Author's Profile

Niki Pfeifer
Universität Regensburg

References found in this work

No references found.

Add more references