Authors
Wolfgang Pietsch
Technische Universität München
Abstract
The prospects of a causal interpretation of probability are examined. Various accounts both from the history of scientific method and from recent developments in the tradition of the method of arbitrary functions, in particular by Strevens, Rosenthal, and Abrams, are briefly introduced and assessed. I then present a specific account of causal probability with the following features: First, the link between causal probability and a particular account of induction and causation is established, namely eliminative induction and the related difference-making account of causation in the tradition of Bacon, Herschel, and Mill. Second, it is shown how a causal approach is useful beyond applications of the method of arbitrary functions and is able to deal with various shades of both ontic and epistemic probabilities. Furthermore, I clarify the notion of causal symmetry as a central element of an objective version of the principle of indifference and relate probabilistic independence to causal irrelevance.
Keywords No keywords specified (fix it)
Categories (categorize this paper)
Reprint years 2016
Options
Edit this record
Mark as duplicate
Export citation
Find it on Scholar
Request removal from index
Revision history

Download options

PhilArchive copy


Upload a copy of this paper     Check publisher's policy     Papers currently archived: 65,819
Through your library

References found in this work BETA

Laws and Symmetry.Bas C. van Fraassen - 1989 - Oxford, England: Oxford University Press.
A Treatise on Probability.John Maynard Keynes - 1921 - London, England: Dover Publications.
Causality.Judea Pearl - 2000 - Cambridge University Press.
Humean Supervenience Debugged.David Lewis - 1994 - Mind 103 (412):473--490.

View all 53 references / Add more references

Citations of this work BETA

A Causal Approach to Analogy.Wolfgang Pietsch - 2019 - Journal for General Philosophy of Science / Zeitschrift für Allgemeine Wissenschaftstheorie 50 (4):489-520.

Add more citations

Similar books and articles

A Probabilistic Analysis of Causal Laws.Ansgar Alfred Augustinus Simon - 1996 - Dissertation, University of California, Los Angeles
Causal Probability.John L. Pollock - 2002 - Synthese 132 (1-2):143 - 185.
Causal Probability.John L. John L. - 2002 - Synthese 132 (1/2):143-185.
The Three Faces of Faithfulness.Jiji Zhang & Peter Spirtes - 2016 - Synthese 193 (4):1011-1027.
Probability Theory and Causation: A Branching Space-Times Analysis.Thomas Müller - 2005 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 56 (3):487-520.
The Causal Nature of Modeling with Big Data.Wolfgang Pietsch - 2016 - Philosophy and Technology 29 (2):137-171.
Completion of the Causal Completability Problem.Michał Marczyk & Leszek Wroński - 2015 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 66 (2):307-326.
Causal Independence.Igal Kvart - 1994 - Philosophy of Science 61 (1):96-114.

Analytics

Added to PP index
2015-09-07

Total views
38 ( #289,288 of 2,463,235 )

Recent downloads (6 months)
3 ( #223,581 of 2,463,235 )

How can I increase my downloads?

Downloads

My notes