Thinking and Reasoning 22 (1):78-98 (2016)

Jean Baratgin
Université Paris 8 (Alumnus)
ABSTRACTThe new paradigm in the psychology of reasoning redirects the investigation of deduction conceptually and methodologically because the premises and the conclusion of the inferences are assumed to be uncertain. A probabilistic counterpart of the concept of logical validity and a method to assess whether individuals comply with it must be defined. Conceptually, we used de Finetti's coherence as a normative framework to assess individuals' performance. Methodologically, we presented inference schemas whose premises had various levels of probability that contained non-numerical expressions and, as a control, sure levels. Depending on the inference schemas, from 60% to 80% of the participants produced coherent conclusions when the premises were uncertain. The data also show that except for schemas involving conjunction, performance was consistently lower with certain than uncertain premises, the rate of conjunction fallacy was consistently low (not exceeding 20%,..
Keywords uncertain reasoning  deduction  de Finetti's coherence
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Reprint years 2016
DOI 10.1080/13546783.2015.1052561
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References found in this work BETA

Cognitive Processes in Propositional Reasoning.Lance J. Rips - 1983 - Psychological Review 90 (1):38-71.
Uncertainty and the de Finetti Tables.Jean Baratgin, David E. Over & Guy Politzer - 2013 - Thinking and Reasoning 19 (3-4):308-328.

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