Synthese 67 (2):195 - 212 (1986)
Proponents of causal decision theories argue that classical Bayesian decision theory (BDT) gives the wrong advice in certain types of cases, of which the clearest and commonest are the medical Newcomb problems. I defend BDT, invoking a familiar principle of statistical inference to show that in such cases a free agent cannot take the contemplated action to be probabilistically relevant to its causes (so that BDT gives the right answer). I argue that my defence does better than those of Ellery Eells and Richard Jeffrey; and that it applies, where necessary, to other types of Newcomb problem.
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References found in this work BETA
Prisoners' Dilemma is a Newcomb Problem.David Lewis - 1979 - Philosophy and Public Affairs 8 (3):235-240.
Citations of this work BETA
Causation, Decision Theory, and Bell's Theorem: A Quantum Analogue of the Newcomb Problem.Eric G. Cavalcanti - 2010 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 61 (3):569-597.
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Freedom, Fiction and Evidential Decision Theory.Phyllis Kirstin McKay - 2007 - Erkenntnis 66 (3):393-407.
The Dr. Psycho Paradox and Newcomb's Problem.Michael Clark & Nicholas Shackel - 2005 - Erkenntnis 64 (1):85 - 100.
Defenses and Conservative Revisions of Evidential Decision Theories: Metatickles and Ratificationism.Jordan Howard Sobel - 1988 - Synthese 75 (1):107 - 131.
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