Synthese 190 (9):1489-1501 (2013)
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Abstract |
Terence Horgan defends the thirder position on the Sleeping Beauty problem, claiming that Beauty can, upon awakening during the experiment, engage in “synchronic Bayesian updating” on her knowledge that she is awake now in order to justify a 1/3 credence in heads. In a previous paper, I objected that epistemic probabilities are equivalent to rational degrees of belief given a possible epistemic situation and so the probability of Beauty’s indexical knowledge that she is awake now is necessarily 1, precluding such updating. In response, Horgan maintains that the probability claims in his argument are to be taken, not as claims about possible rational degrees of belief, but rather as claims about “quantitative degrees of evidential support.” This paper argues that the most plausible account of quantitative degree of support, when conjoined with any of the three major accounts of indexical thought in such a way as to plausibly constrain rational credence, contradicts essential elements of Horgan’s argument
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Keywords | Sleeping Beauty problem Logical probability Epistemic probability Indexical knowledge |
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DOI | 10.1007/s11229-011-9888-6 |
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References found in this work BETA
Logical Foundations of Probability.Rudolf Carnap - 1950 - Chicago, IL, USA: Chicago University of Chicago Press.
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Citations of this work BETA
Generalized Conditionalization and the Sleeping Beauty Problem.Terry Horgan & Anna Mahtani - 2013 - Erkenntnis 78 (2):333-351.
Generalized Conditionalization and the Sleeping Beauty Problem, II.Terry Horgan - 2015 - Erkenntnis 80 (4):811-839.
Immortal Beauty: Does Existence Confirm Reincarnation?Jens Jäger - forthcoming - Australasian Journal of Philosophy.
Beauty and Generalized Conditionalization: Reply to Horgan and Mahtani.Joel Pust - 2014 - Erkenntnis 79 (3):687-700.
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