British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 64 (1):33-59 (2013)
Authors |
|
Abstract |
It is a standard view that the concept of chance is inextricably related to the technical concept of credence . One influential version of this view is that the chance role is specified by (something in the neighborhood of) David Lewis's Principal Principle, which asserts a certain definite relation between chance and credence. If this view is right, then one cannot coherently affirm that there are chance processes in the physical world while rejecting the theoretical framework in which credence is defined, namely the Bayesian framework. This is surprising; why should adopting a theory that says there are chances at work in nature put any particular constraints on our theorizing about epistemology and rational choice? It is quite plausible that in order for anything to count as the referent of our concept chance , it would have to be related to epistemic rationality in a certain way—roughly, it is rational to have more confidence that something will happen the greater you think its chance is. But this commonsensical idea does not seem to be inherently committed to any particular theoretical approach to rationality, so why should we think that adopting the Bayesian approach is a prerequisite for thinking coherently about chance? I propose and defend a replacement for the Principal Principle which makes no use of the concept of credence. I also argue that this replacement is advantageous for the project of theorizing about the nature of chance
|
Keywords | No keywords specified (fix it) |
Categories | (categorize this paper) |
DOI | 10.1093/bjps/axr053 |
Options |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
Download options
References found in this work BETA
A Subjectivist’s Guide to Objective Chance.David K. Lewis - 1980 - In Richard C. Jeffrey (ed.), Studies in Inductive Logic and Probability, Volume II. Berkeley: University of California Press. pp. 263-293.
Evidential Symmetry and Mushy Credence.Roger White - 2009 - In T. Szabo Gendler & J. Hawthorne (eds.), Oxford Studies in Epistemology. Oxford University Press. pp. 161-186.
View all 23 references / Add more references
Citations of this work BETA
Similar books and articles
On the Notion of Admissibility in Chance-Credence Principles: A Comment on Vranas.Gabriella Pigozzi - manuscript
Two Mistakes About Credence and Chance.Ned Hall - 2004 - Australasian Journal of Philosophy 82 (1):93 – 111.
Chance, Credence, and the Principal Principle.Robert Black - 1998 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 49 (3):371-385.
On What We Know About Chance.Frank Arntzenius & Ned Hall - 2003 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 54 (2):171-179.
Deterministic Probability: Neither Chance nor Credence.Aidan Lyon - 2011 - Synthese 182 (3):413-432.
A Philosophical Guide to Chance: Physical Probability.Toby Handfield - 2012 - Cambridge University Press.
Principled Chances.Jonathan Schaffer - 2003 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 54 (1):27-41.
Chances and Causes in Evolutionary Biology: How Many Chances Become One Chance.Roberta L. Millstein - 2011 - In P. M. Illari, F. Russo & J. Williamson (eds.), Causality in the Sciences. Oxford University Press. pp. 2--425.
A New Epistemic Utility Argument for the Principal Principle.Richard G. Pettigrew - 2013 - Episteme 10 (1):19-35.
Analytics
Added to PP index
2012-03-22
Total views
133 ( #89,034 of 2,519,516 )
Recent downloads (6 months)
1 ( #407,153 of 2,519,516 )
2012-03-22
Total views
133 ( #89,034 of 2,519,516 )
Recent downloads (6 months)
1 ( #407,153 of 2,519,516 )
How can I increase my downloads?
Downloads