Verisimilitude, cross classification and prediction logic. Approaching the statistical truth by falsified qualitative theories

Mind and Society 6 (1):91-114 (2007)

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Abstract
In this paper it is argued that qualitative theories (Q-theories) can be used to describe the statistical structure of cross classified populations and that the notion of verisimilitude provides an appropriate tool for measuring the statistical adequacy of Q-theories. First of all, a short outline of the post-Popperian approaches to verisimilitude and of the related verisimilitudinarian non-falsificationist methodologies (VNF-methodologies) is given. Secondly, the notion of Q-theory is explicated, and the qualitative verisimilitude of Q-theories is defined. Afterwards, appropriate measures for the statistical verisimilitude of Q-theories are introduced, so to obtain a clear formulation of the intuitive idea that the statistical truth about cross classified populations can be approached by falsified Q-theories. Finally, it is argued that some basic intuitions underlying VNF-methodologies are shared by the so-called prediction logic, developed by the statisticians and social scientists David K. Hildebrand, James D. Laing and Howard Rosenthal
Keywords Verisimilitude  Statistics  Cross classification  Prediction logic  Qualitative theories  Non-falsificationist methodologies  Popper  Lakatos
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DOI 10.1007/s11299-006-0022-2
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References found in this work BETA

Conjectures and Refutations.K. Popper - 1963 - Les Etudes Philosophiques 21 (3):431-434.
Objective Knowledge.Karl R. Popper - 1972 - Oxford, Clarendon Press.
The Probable and the Provable.Samuel Stoljar & L. Jonathan Cohen - 1981 - Philosophical Review 90 (3):457.
Popper’s Qualitative Theory of Verisimilitude.David Miller - 1974 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 25 (2):166-177.

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Citations of this work BETA

The Whole Truth About Linda: Probability, Verisimilitude and a Paradox of Conjunction.Gustavo Cevolani, Vincenzo Crupi & Roberto Festa - 2010 - In Marcello D'Agostino, Federico Laudisa, Giulio Giorello, Telmo Pievani & Corrado Sinigaglia (eds.), New Essays in Logic and Philosophy of Science. College Publications. pp. 603--615.

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