Authors
Teddy Seidenfeld
Carnegie Mellon University
Abstract
It has long been known that the practice of testing all hypotheses at the same level , regardless of the distribution of the data, is not consistent with Bayesian expected utility maximization. According to de Finetti’s “Dutch Book” argument, procedures that are not consistent with expected utility maximization are incoherent and they lead to gambles that are sure to lose no matter what happens. In this paper, we use a method to measure the rate at which incoherent procedures are sure to lose, so that we can distinguish slightly incoherent procedures from grossly incoherent ones. We present an analysis of testing a simple hypothesis against a simple alternative as a case‐study of how the method can work
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DOI 10.1086/341850
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References found in this work BETA

Coherence and the Axioms of Confirmation.Abner Shimony - 1955 - Journal of Symbolic Logic 20 (1):1-28.

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Evidence and Experimental Design in Sequential Trials.Jan Sprenger - 2009 - Philosophy of Science 76 (5):637-649.
Stopping rules as experimental design.Samuel Fletcher - 2019 - European Journal for Philosophy of Science 9 (2):1-20.

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