Philosophy of Science 72 (5):1160-1173 (2005)
Authors |
|
Abstract |
I present a game-theoretic way to understand the situation describing Newcomb’s Problem (NP) which helps to explain the intuition of both one-boxers and two-boxers. David Lewis has shown that the NP may be modelled as a Prisoners Dilemma game (PD) in which ‘cooperating’ corresponds to ‘taking one box’. Adopting relevant results from game theory, this means that one should take just one box if the NP is repeated an indefinite number of times, but both boxes if it is a one-shot game. Causal decision theorists thus give the right answer for the one-shot situation, whereas the one-boxers’ solution applies to the indefinitely iterated case. Because Nozick’s set-up of the NP is ambiguous between a one-shot and a repeated game, both of these solutions may appear plausible – depending on whether one conceives of the situation as one-off or repeated. If the players’ aim is to maximize their payoffs, the symmetric structure of the PD implies that the two players will behave alike both when the game is one-shot and when it is played repeatedly. Therefore neither the observed outcome of both players selecting the same strategy (in the PD) nor, correspondingly, the predictor’s accurate prediction of this outcome (in the NP) is at all surprising. There is no need for a supernatural predictor to explain the NP phenomena.
|
Keywords | No keywords specified (fix it) |
Categories | (categorize this paper) |
Reprint years | 2005 |
DOI | 10.1086/508962 |
Options |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
Download options
References found in this work BETA
Causality: Models, Reasoning and Inference.Judea Pearl - 2000 - Tijdschrift Voor Filosofie 64 (1):201-202.
Newcomb’s Problem and Two Principles of Choice.Robert Nozick - 1969 - In Nicholas Rescher (ed.), Essays in Honor of Carl G. Hempel. Reidel. pp. 114--146.
View all 27 references / Add more references
Citations of this work BETA
A Robust Resolution of Newcomb’s Paradox.Thomas A. Weber - 2016 - Theory and Decision 81 (3):339-356.
Similar books and articles
Newcomb's Hidden Regress.Stephen Maitzen & Garnett Wilson - 2003 - Theory and Decision 54 (2):151-162.
Dependency Equilibria and the Causal Structure of Decision and Game Situation.Wolfgang Spohn - unknown
Repeated St Petersburg Two-Envelope Trials and Expected Value.Jeremy Gwiazda - 2012 - The Reasoner 6 (3).
How Braess' Paradox Solves Newcomb's Problem.A. D. Irvine - 1993 - International Studies in the Philosophy of Science 7 (2):141 – 160.
Newcomb’s Paradox Realized with Backward Causation.Jan Hendrik Schmidt - 1998 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 49 (1):67-87.
Some Versions of Newcomb's Problem Are Prisoners' Dilemmas.Jordan Howard Sobel - 1991 - Synthese 86 (2):197 - 208.
Analytics
Added to PP index
2009-01-28
Total views
94 ( #125,730 of 2,518,494 )
Recent downloads (6 months)
1 ( #408,186 of 2,518,494 )
2009-01-28
Total views
94 ( #125,730 of 2,518,494 )
Recent downloads (6 months)
1 ( #408,186 of 2,518,494 )
How can I increase my downloads?
Downloads