Journal of the Philosophy of Sport 43 (1):163-169 (2016)

Authors
Rory Smead
Northeastern University
Abstract
There are circumstances in which we want to predict a series of interrelated events. Faced with such a prediction task, it is natural to consider logically inconsistent predictions to be irrational. However, it is possible to find cases where an inconsistent prediction has higher expected accuracy than any consistent prediction. Predicting tournaments in sports provides a striking example of such a case and I argue that logical consistency should not be a norm of rational predictions in these situations
Keywords No keywords specified (fix it)
Categories (categorize this paper)
Reprint years 2016
ISBN(s)
DOI 10.1080/00948705.2015.1079134
Options
Edit this record
Mark as duplicate
Export citation
Find it on Scholar
Request removal from index
Revision history

Download options

PhilArchive copy


Upload a copy of this paper     Check publisher's policy     Papers currently archived: 51,232
External links

Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
Through your library

References found in this work BETA

Accuracy, Coherence, and Evidence.Branden Fitelson & Kenny Easwaran - 2015 - Oxford Studies in Epistemology 5:61-96.
Probability and the Logic of Rational Belief.Henry Ely Kyburg - 1961 - Middletown, Conn., Wesleyan University Press.
The Paradox of the Preface.David C. Makinson - 1965 - Analysis 25 (6):205.

View all 15 references / Add more references

Citations of this work BETA

No citations found.

Add more citations

Similar books and articles

Preface Writers Are Consistent.Roger Clarke - 2017 - Pacific Philosophical Quarterly 98 (3):362-381.
Are Generic Predictions Enough?Alexander Rosenberg - 1989 - Erkenntnis 30 (1-2):43 - 68.
Rational Belief in the Impossible.Sharon Ryan - 1991 - Dissertation, The University of Rochester
Logic of the Preface Paradox.Dale Jacquette - 2008 - Principia 12 (2):203-216.
The Virtues of Inconsistency.Peter Klein - 1985 - The Monist 68 (1):105-135.
Generating Predictions From a Dynamical Systems Emotion Theory.Ralph D. Ellis - 2005 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 28 (2):202-203.
Certainty and Mortality Prediction in Critically Ill Children.J. P. Marcin - 2004 - Journal of Medical Ethics 30 (3):304-307.

Analytics

Added to PP index
2015-08-27

Total views
17 ( #557,759 of 2,329,884 )

Recent downloads (6 months)
1 ( #582,921 of 2,329,884 )

How can I increase my downloads?

Downloads

My notes