A Novel Solution to the Problem of Old Evidence

Philosophy of Science 82 (3):383-401 (2015)
Jan Sprenger
University of Turin
One of the most troubling and persistent challenges for Bayesian Confirmation Theory is the Problem of Old Evidence. The problem arises for anyone who models scientific reasoning by means of Bayesian Conditionalization. This article addresses the problem as follows: First, I clarify the nature and varieties of the POE and analyze various solution proposals in the literature. Second, I present a novel solution that combines previous attempts while making weaker and more plausible assumptions. Third and last, I summarize my findings and put them into the context of the general debate about POE and Bayesian reasoning
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DOI 10.1086/681767
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References found in this work BETA

Measuring Confirmation.David Christensen - 1999 - Journal of Philosophy 96 (9):437.
Measuring Confirmation and Evidence.Ellery Eells & Branden Fitelson - 2000 - Journal of Philosophy 97 (12):663-672.
Some Problems for Bayesian Confirmation Theory.Charles S. Chihara - 1987 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 38 (4):551-560.
Bayesianism and Support by Novel Facts.Colin Howson - 1984 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 35 (3):245-251.

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