Climate Models, Calibration, and Confirmation
British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 64 (3):609-635 (2013)
Abstract
We argue that concerns about double-counting—using the same evidence both to calibrate or tune climate models and also to confirm or verify that the models are adequate—deserve more careful scrutiny in climate modelling circles. It is widely held that double-counting is bad and that separate data must be used for calibration and confirmation. We show that this is far from obviously true, and that climate scientists may be confusing their targets. Our analysis turns on a Bayesian/relative-likelihood approach to incremental confirmation. According to this approach, double-counting is entirely proper. We go on to discuss plausible difficulties with calibrating climate models, and we distinguish more and less ambitious notions of confirmation. Strong claims of confirmation may not, in many cases, be warranted, but it would be a mistake to regard double-counting as the culprit. 1 Introduction2 Remarks about Models and Adequacy-for-Purpose3 Evidence for Calibration Can Also Yield Comparative Confirmation3.1 Double-counting I3.2 Double-counting II4 Climate Science Examples: Comparative Confirmation in Practice4.1 Confirmation due to better and worse best fits4.2 Confirmation due to more and less plausible forcings values5 Old Evidence6 Doubts about the Relevance of Past Data7 Non-comparative Confirmation and Catch-Alls8 Climate Science Example: Non-comparative Confirmation and Catch-Alls in Practice9 Concluding RemarksAuthor Profiles
DOI
10.1093/bjps/axs036
My notes
Similar books and articles
Varieties of support and confirmation of climate models.Elisabeth A. Lloyd - 2009 - Aristotelian Society Supplementary Volume 83 (1):213-232.
Holism and Entrenchment in Climate Model Validation.Johannes Lenhard & Eric Winsberg - 2011 - In M. Carrier & A. Nordmann (eds.), Science in the Context of Application. Springer. pp. 115--130.
From relative confirmation to real confirmation.Aron Edidin - 1988 - Philosophy of Science 55 (2):265-271.
Coherence and Confirmation through Causation.Gregory Wheeler & Richard Scheines - 2013 - Mind 122 (485):135-170.
Choosing between confirmation theories.R. G. Swinburne - 1970 - Philosophy of Science 37 (4):602-613.
Confirmational holism and bayesian epistemology.David Christensen - 1992 - Philosophy of Science 59 (4):540-557.
Causation, Association, and Confirmation.Gregory Wheeler & Richard Scheines - 2010 - In Stephan Hartmann, Marcel Weber, Wenceslao Gonzalez, Dennis Dieks & Thomas Uebe (eds.), Explanation, Prediction, and Confirmation: New Trends and Old Ones Reconsidered. Springer. pp. 37--51.
(C) instances, the relevance criterion, and the paradoxes of confirmation.Phillip J. Rody - 1978 - Philosophy of Science 45 (2):289-302.
Verification, Validation, and Confirmation of Numerical Models in the Earth Sciences.Naomi Oreskes, Kristin Shrader-Frechette & Kenneth Belitz - 1994 - Science 263 (5147):641-646.
Analytics
Added to PP
2013-03-01
Downloads
393 (#29,012)
6 months
59 (#21,183)
2013-03-01
Downloads
393 (#29,012)
6 months
59 (#21,183)
Historical graph of downloads
Author Profiles
Citations of this work
Calibration: Modelling the measurement process.Eran Tal - 2017 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 65:33-45.
Computer simulations and experiments: The case of the Higgs boson.Michela Massimi & Wahid Bhimji - 2015 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 51:71-81.
Predictivism and old evidence: a critical look at climate model tuning.Mathias Frisch - 2015 - European Journal for Philosophy of Science 5 (2):171-190.
References found in this work
How to Tell When Simpler, More Unified, or Less A d Hoc Theories Will Provide More Accurate Predictions.Malcolm R. Forster & Elliott Sober - 1994 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 45 (1):1-35.
Prediction versus accommodation and the risk of overfitting.Christopher Hitchcock & Elliott Sober - 2004 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 55 (1):1-34.
II—Wendy S. Parker: Confirmation and adequacy-for-Purpose in Climate Modelling.Wendy S. Parker - 2009 - Aristotelian Society Supplementary Volume 83 (1):233-249.
Measuring confirmation and evidence.Ellery Eells & Branden Fitelson - 2000 - Journal of Philosophy 97 (12):663-672.
II—C onfirmation and A dequacy-for-P urpose in C limate M odelling.Wendys Parker - 2009 - Aristotelian Society Supplementary Volume 83 (1):233-249.