What Kinds of Traffic Forecasts are Possible?

Journal of Critical Realism 11 (3):277-295 (2012)
Abstract
Based on metatheoretical considerations, this article discusses what kinds of traffic forecasts are possible and what kinds are impossible to make with any reasonable degree of accuracy. It will be argued on ontological and epistemological grounds that it is inherently impossible to make exact predictions about the magnitude of the ‘general’ traffic growth 20–30 years ahead, since many of the influencing factors depend on inherently unpredictable geopolitical trajectories as well as contested political decision-making. Due to the context-dependency of each particular planning situation, it is also hardly possible to make exact, quantitative predictions about the impact of implementing a specific infrastructure project, compared to ‘doing nothing’. Instead of relying on traffic model simulations as the general forecasting and assessment tool in transport planning, we propose to separate the so-called strategic, tactical and operational levels of traffic forecasting into three distinct methodological approaches reflecting the different degrees of openness/closure of the systems at hand: scenario analyses at the strategic level; theory-informed, mainly qualitative analyses supplemented with simple calculations at the tactical level; while more traditional micro-simulations should be applied only at a detailed operational level
Keywords No keywords specified (fix it)
Categories (categorize this paper)
DOI 10.1558/jcr.v11i3.277
Options
 Save to my reading list
Follow the author(s)
My bibliography
Export citation
Find it on Scholar
Edit this record
Mark as duplicate
Revision history
Request removal from index
Download options
Our Archive


Upload a copy of this paper     Check publisher's policy     Papers currently archived: 26,721
External links

Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
Through your library
References found in this work BETA

No references found.

Add more references

Citations of this work BETA

No citations found.

Add more citations

Similar books and articles
The Responsible Conduct of Basic and Clinical Research.Andrzej Górski - 2006 - Science and Engineering Ethics 12 (1):3-4.
The Bayesian and the Dogmatist.Brian Weatherson - 2007 - Proceedings of the Aristotelian Society 107 (1pt2):169 - 185.
Use of Heuristics: Insights From Forecasting Research.Nigel Harvey - 2007 - Thinking and Reasoning 13 (1):5 – 24.
Three Kinds of Social Kinds.Muhammad Ali Khalidi - 2015 - Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 90 (1):96-112.
Understanding Moral Responsibility in the Design of Trailers.Simone Burg & Anke Gorp - 2005 - Science and Engineering Ethics 11 (2):235-256.

Monthly downloads

Added to index

2012-07-11

Total downloads

15 ( #311,329 of 2,158,685 )

Recent downloads (6 months)

1 ( #354,589 of 2,158,685 )

How can I increase my downloads?

My notes
Sign in to use this feature


Discussion
Order:
There  are no threads in this forum
Nothing in this forum yet.

Other forums