British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 70 (4):977-1001 (2019)
Authors |
|
Abstract |
It has recently been argued that a non-Bayesian probabilistic version of inference to the best explanation (IBE*) has a number of advantages over Bayesian conditionalization (Douven [2013]; Douven and Wenmackers [2017]). We investigate how IBE* could be generalized to uncertain evidential situations and formulate a novel updating rule IBE**. We then inspect how it performs in comparison to its Bayesian counterpart, Jeffrey conditionalization (JC), in a number of simulations where two agents, each updating by IBE** and JC, respectively, try to detect the bias of a coin while they are only partially certain what side the coin landed on. We show that IBE** more often prescribes high probability to the actual bias than JC. We also show that this happens considerably faster, that IBE** passes higher thresholds for high probability, and that it in general leads to more accurate probability distributions than JC.
|
Keywords | Inference to the Best Explanation Abduction Bayesianism |
Categories | (categorize this paper) |
Reprint years | 2019 |
DOI | 10.1093/bjps/axy027 |
Options |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
Download options
References found in this work BETA
Inference to the Best Explanation.Peter Lipton - 1991 - London and New York: Routledge/Taylor and Francis Group.
View all 35 references / Add more references
Citations of this work BETA
The Ecological Rationality of Explanatory Reasoning.Igor Douven - 2020 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 79:1-14.
Lying, more or less: a computer simulation study of graded lies and trust dynamics.Borut Trpin, Anna Dobrosovestnova & Sebastian J. Götzendorfer - 2020 - Synthese 199 (1-2):1-28.
How to (Blind)Spot the Truth: An Investigation on Actual Epistemic Value.Danilo Fraga Dantas - 2021 - Erkenntnis:1572-8420.
Jeffrey conditionalization: proceed with caution.Borut Trpin - 2020 - Philosophical Studies 177 (10):2985-3012.
Similar books and articles
Inference to the Best Explanation and Bayesianism.Stathis Psillos - 2004 - Vienna Circle Institute Yearbook 11:83-91.
Inference to the Best Theory, Rather Than Inference to the Best Explanation: Kinds of Abduction and Induction.Theo Kuipers - 2004 - Vienna Circle Institute Yearbook 11:25-51.
Inference to the Best Theory, Rather Than Inference to the Best Explanation. Kinds of Abduction and Induction.Theo Af Kuipers - 2004 - In Friedrich Stadler (ed.), Vienna Circle Institute Yearbook. Springer. pp. 25-51.
Abduction and Inference to the Best Explanation.Valeriano Iranzo - 2009 - Theoria : An International Journal for Theory, History and Fundations of Science 22 (3):339-346.
Eliminative Abduction: Examples From Medicine.Alexander Bird - 2010 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 41 (4):345-352.
Alien Abduction: Inference to the Best Explanation and the Management of Testimony.Peter Lipton - 2007 - Episteme 4 (3):238-251.
Peirce-Suit of Truth – Why Inference to the Best Explanation and Abduction Ought Not to Be Confused.Minnameier Gerhard - 2004 - Erkenntnis 60 (1):75-105.
Bayesianism and Inference to the Best Explanation.Valeriano Iranzo - 2008 - Theoria : An International Journal for Theory, History and Fundations of Science 23 (1):89-106.
Inference to the Best Explanation, Coherence and Other Explanatory Virtues.Adolfas Mackonis - 2013 - Synthese 190 (6):975-995.
Inference to the Best Explanation Made Incoherent.Nevin Climenhaga - 2017 - Journal of Philosophy 114 (5):251-273.
Analytics
Added to PP index
2017-12-29
Total views
68 ( #166,801 of 2,498,128 )
Recent downloads (6 months)
3 ( #212,593 of 2,498,128 )
2017-12-29
Total views
68 ( #166,801 of 2,498,128 )
Recent downloads (6 months)
3 ( #212,593 of 2,498,128 )
How can I increase my downloads?
Downloads