Simulation Typology and Termination Risks
Abstract
The goal of the article is to explore what is the most probable type of simulation in which humanity lives (if any) and how this affects simulation termination risks. We firstly explore the question of what kind of simulation in which humanity is most likely located based on pure theoretical reasoning. We suggest a new patch to the classical simulation argument, showing that we are likely simulated not by our own descendants, but by alien civilizations. Based on this, we provide classification of different possible simulations and we find that simpler, less expensive and one-person-centered simulations, resurrectional simulations, or simulations of the first artificial general intelligence’s (AGI’s) origin (singularity simulations) should dominate. Also, simulations which simulate the 21st century and global catastrophic risks are probable. We then explore whether the simulation could collapse or be terminated. Most simulations must be terminated after they model the singularity or after they model a global catastrophe before the singularity. Undeniably observed glitches, but not philosophical speculations could result in simulation termination. The simulation could collapse if it is overwhelmed by glitches. The Doomsday Argument in simulations implies termination soon. We conclude that all types of the most probable simulations except resurrectional simulations are prone to termination risks in a relatively short time frame of hundreds of years or less from now.Author Profiles
My notes
Similar books and articles
The perils of tweaking: how to use macrodata to set parameters in complex simulation models.Brian Epstein & Patrick Forber - 2013 - Synthese 190 (2):203-218.
Are We Sims? How Computer Simulations Represent and What this Means for the Simulation Argument.Claus Beisbart - 2014 - The Monist 97 (3):399-417.
You Only Live Twice: A Computer Simulation of the Past Could be Used for Technological Resurrection.Alexey Turchin - manuscript
On the verisimilitude of artificial intelligence.Roger Vergauwen & Rodrigo González - 2005 - Logique Et Analyse- 190 (189):323-350.
Social explanation and computational simulation.R. Keith Sawyer - 2004 - Philosophical Explorations 7 (3):219-231.
A Minimalist Epistemology for Agent-Based Simulations in the Artificial Sciences.Giuseppe Primiero - 2019 - Minds and Machines 29 (1):127-148.
How simulations fail.Patrick Grim, Robert Rosenberger, Adam Rosenfeld, Brian Anderson & Robb E. Eason - 2011 - Synthese 190 (12):2367-2390.
The Simulation Argument and the Reference Class Problem: the dialectical contextualist's standpoint.Paul Franceschi - unknown
L’argument de la Simulation et le problème de la classe de référence : le point de vue du contextualisme dialectique.Paul Franceschi - 2016 - Philosophiques 43 (2):371-389.
Computer simulation and the features of novel empirical data.Greg Lusk - 2016 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 56:145-152.
Epistemic Entitlements and the Practice of Computer Simulation.John Symons & Ramón Alvarado - 2019 - Minds and Machines 29 (1):37-60.
Computing the uncomputable; or, The discrete charm of second-order simulacra.Matthew W. Parker - 2009 - Synthese 169 (3):447-463.
Simulation Models of the Evolution of Cooperation as Proofs of Logical Possibilities. How Useful Are They?Eckhart Arnold - 2013 - Ethics and Politics 2 (XV):101-138.
Learning in a landscape: simulation-building as reflexive intervention.Anne Beaulieu, Matt Ratto & Andrea Scharnhorst - 2013 - Mind and Society 12 (1):91-112.
Analytics
Added to PP
2019-05-16
Downloads
167 (#77,146)
6 months
25 (#47,721)
2019-05-16
Downloads
167 (#77,146)
6 months
25 (#47,721)
Historical graph of downloads
Author Profiles
Citations of this work
The Moral Consideration of Artificial Entities: A Literature Review.Jamie Harris & Jacy Reese Anthis - 2021 - Science and Engineering Ethics 27 (4):1-95.