Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

Science 185 (4157):1124-1131 (1974)

Abstract
This article described three heuristics that are employed in making judgements under uncertainty: representativeness, which is usually employed when people are asked to judge the probability that an object or event A belongs to class or process B; availability of instances or scenarios, which is often employed when people are asked to assess the frequency of a class or the plausibility of a particular development; and adjustment from an anchor, which is usually employed in numerical prediction when a relevant value is available. These heuristics are highly economical and usually effective, but they lead to systematic and predictable errors. A better understanding of these heuristics and of the biases to which they lead could improve judgements and decisions in situations of uncertainty
Keywords No keywords specified (fix it)
Categories (categorize this paper)
Reprint years 1975
DOI 10.1126/science.185.4157.1124
Options
Edit this record
Mark as duplicate
Export citation
Find it on Scholar
Request removal from index
Revision history

Download options

Our Archive


Upload a copy of this paper     Check publisher's policy     Papers currently archived: 38,992
External links

Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
Through your library

References found in this work BETA

No references found.

Add more references

Citations of this work BETA

Why Do Humans Reason? Arguments for an Argumentative Theory.Dan Sperber - 2011 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 34 (2):57.
The Weirdest People in the World.Joseph Henrich, Steven J. Heine & Ara Norenzayan - 2010 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 33 (2-3):61-83.
Can Human Irrationality Be Experimentally Demonstrated?L. Jonathan Cohen - 1981 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 4 (3):317-370.

View all 706 citations / Add more citations

Similar books and articles

Assessing Uncertainty.Amos Tversky - 1974 - Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B 36 (2):148-159.
Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky, Eds.Daniel Kahneman - 1982 - In Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic & Amos Tversky (eds.), Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge University Press.
Amos Tversky, Eds. 1982.Daniel Kahneman & Paul Slovic - 1982 - In Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic & Amos Tversky (eds.), Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge University Press.
P. & Tversky, A.D. Slovic Kahneman - 1982 - In Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic & Amos Tversky (eds.), Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge University Press.
Tversky, Eds.D. Kahneman & P. Slovic - 1982 - In Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic & Amos Tversky (eds.), Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge University Press.
P. Slovic, and A. Tversky.D. Kahneman - 1982 - In Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic & Amos Tversky (eds.), Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge University Press.
Debiasing/Kahneman, D., Slovic, P. And Tversky, A.B. Fischhoff - 1982 - In Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic & Amos Tversky (eds.), Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge University Press.
Debiasing. D. Kahneman, P. Slovic and A. Tversky, Eds.B. Fischsoff - 1982 - In Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic & Amos Tversky (eds.), Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge University Press.
Studies of Representativeness.Maya Bar-Hillel - 1982 - In Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic & Amos Tversky (eds.), Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge University Press. pp. 69--83.
Teaching Ethics, Heuristics, and Biases.Robert Prentice - 2004 - Journal of Business Ethics Education 1 (1):55-72.
Automated Choice Heuristics.Shane Frederick - 2002 - In . Cambridge University Press. pp. 548-558.
The Availability Bias in Social Perception and Interaction.Shelley E. Taylor - 1982 - In Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic & Amos Tversky (eds.), Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge University Press. pp. 190--200.
A Progress Report on the Training of Probability Assessors.Marc Alpert & Howard Raiffa - 1982 - In Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic & Amos Tversky (eds.), Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge University Press. pp. 294--305.

Analytics

Added to PP index
2016-05-26

Total views
48 ( #150,123 of 2,319,691 )

Recent downloads (6 months)
19 ( #33,517 of 2,319,691 )

How can I increase my downloads?

Monthly downloads

My notes

Sign in to use this feature