Cognitive Science 38 (7):1384-1405 (2014)

In most decision-making situations, there is a plethora of information potentially available to people. Deciding what information to gather and what to ignore is no small feat. How do decision makers determine in what sequence to collect information and when to stop? In two experiments, we administered a version of the German cities task developed by Gigerenzer and Goldstein (1996), in which participants had to decide which of two cities had the larger population. Decision makers were not provided with the names of the cities, but they were able to collect different kinds of cues for both response alternatives (e.g., “Does this city have a university?”) before making a decision. Our experiments differed in whether participants were free to determine the number of cues they examined. We demonstrate that a novel model, using hierarchical latent mixtures and Bayesian inference (Lee & Newell, ) provides a more complete description of the data from both experiments than simple conventional strategies, such as the take–the–best or the Weighted Additive heuristics.
Keywords Probabilistic inference  Hierarchical Bayesian models  Heuristic decision making
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DOI 10.1111/cogs.12119
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Theory of Probability.Ernest Nagel - 1940 - Journal of Philosophy 37 (19):524-528.
SSL: A Theory of How People Learn to Select Strategies.Jörg Rieskamp & Philipp E. Otto - 2006 - Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 135 (2):207-236.

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