Logic Journal of the IGPL 18 (2):336-345 (2010)

Abstract
Suppose that several individuals who have separately assessed prior probability distributions over a set of possible states of the world wish to pool their individual distributions into a single group distribution, while taking into account jointly perceived new evidence. They have the option of first updating their individual priors and then pooling the resulting posteriors or first pooling their priors and then updating the resulting group prior. If the pooling method that they employ is such that they arrive at the same final distribution in both cases, the method is said to be externally Bayesian, a property first studied by Madansky . We show that a pooling method for discrete distributions is externally Bayesian if and only if it commutes with Jeffrey conditioning, parameterized in terms of certain ratios of new to old odds, as in Wagner , rather than in terms of the posterior probabilities of members of the disjoint family of events on which such conditioning originates
Keywords No keywords specified (fix it)
Categories (categorize this paper)
Reprint years 2010
DOI 10.1093/jigpal/jzp063
Options
Edit this record
Mark as duplicate
Export citation
Find it on Scholar
Request removal from index
Revision history

Download options

PhilArchive copy


Upload a copy of this paper     Check publisher's policy     Papers currently archived: 72,607
Through your library

References found in this work BETA

A Note on Jeffrey Conditionalization.Hartry Field - 1978 - Philosophy of Science 45 (3):361-367.
Probability Kinematics and Commutativity.Carl G. Wagner - 2002 - Philosophy of Science 69 (2):266-278.

View all 8 references / Add more references

Citations of this work BETA

Groupthink.Jeffrey Sanford Russell, John Hawthorne & Lara Buchak - 2015 - Philosophical Studies 172 (5):1287-1309.

View all 12 citations / Add more citations

Similar books and articles

Analytics

Added to PP index
2009-10-29

Total views
83 ( #143,149 of 2,533,629 )

Recent downloads (6 months)
2 ( #260,743 of 2,533,629 )

How can I increase my downloads?

Downloads

My notes