Keynes, Uncertainty and Interest Rates

Cambridge Journal of Economics 26 (1):47-62 (2002)

Authors
Brian Weatherson
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
Abstract
Uncertainty plays an important role in The General Theory, particularly in the theory of interest rates. Keynes did not provide a theory of uncertainty, but he did make some enlightening remarks about the direction he thought such a theory should take. I argue that some modern innovations in the theory of probability allow us to build a theory which captures these Keynesian insights. If this is the right theory, however, uncertainty cannot carry its weight in Keynes’s arguments. This does not mean that the conclusions of these arguments are necessarily mistaken; in their best formulation they may succeed with merely an appeal to risk.
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References found in this work BETA

A Mathematical Theory of Evidence.Glenn Shafer - 1978 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 29 (4):375-387.
Logical Foundations of Probability.Rudolf Carnap - 1951 - Journal of Symbolic Logic 16 (3):205-207.
A Treatise on Probability.John Maynard Keynes - 1921 - Journal of Philosophy 20 (11):301-306.

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Citations of this work BETA

How Probabilities Reflect Evidence.James Joyce - 2005 - Philosophical Perspectives 19 (1):153–178.
The Bayesian and the Dogmatist.Brian Weatherson - 2007 - Proceedings of the Aristotelian Society 107 (1pt2):169-185.
Against Radical Credal Imprecision.Susanna Rinard - 2013 - Thought: A Journal of Philosophy 2 (1):157-165.
Do We Need Second-Order Probabilities?Sven Ove Hansson - 2008 - Dialectica 62 (4):525-533.

View all 10 citations / Add more citations

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