Synthese 149 (1):1-36 (2006)

Authors
Nuel Belnap
University of Pittsburgh
Matt Weiner
University of Vermont
Abstract
We suggest a rigorous theory of how objective single-case transition probabilities fit into our world. The theory combines indeterminism and relativity in the “branching space–times” pattern, and relies on the existing theory of causae causantes (originating causes). Its fundamental suggestion is that (at least in simple cases) the probabilities of all transitions can be computed from the basic probabilities attributed individually to their originating causes. The theory explains when and how one can reasonably infer from the probabilities of one “chance set-up” to the probabilities of another such set-up that is located far away.
Keywords Philosophy   Philosophy   Epistemology   Logic   Metaphysics   Philosophy of Language
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DOI 10.1007/s11229-004-6240-4
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References found in this work BETA

Philosophical Papers.David K. Lewis - 1983 - Oxford University Press.
The Scientific Image.William Demopoulos & Bas C. van Fraassen - 1982 - Philosophical Review 91 (4):603.
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A Subjectivist’s Guide to Objective Chance.David K. Lewis - 1980 - In Richard C. Jeffrey (ed.), Studies in Inductive Logic and Probability, Volume II. Berkeley: University of California Press. pp. 263-293.

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Citations of this work BETA

Probability Theory and Causation: A Branching Space-Times Analysis.Thomas Müller - 2005 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 56 (3):487-520.
Chance Versus Randomness.Antony Eagle - 2010 - Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy.

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