The Diversity of Model Tuning Practices in Climate Science

Philosophy of Science 83 (5):113-114 (2016)
Charlotte Sophie Werndl
London School of Economics
Katie Steele
Australian National University
Many examples of calibration in climate science raise no alarms regarding model reliability. We examine one example and show that, in employing Classical Hypothesis-testing, it involves calibrating a base model against data that is also used to confirm the model. This is counter to the "intuitive position". We argue, however, that aspects of the intuitive position are upheld by some methods, in particular, the general Cross-validation method. How Cross-validation relates to other prominent Classical methods such as the Akaike Information Criterion and Bayesian Information Criterion is also discussed.
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DOI 10.1086/687944
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