David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Ezio Di Nucci
Jonathan Jenkins Ichikawa
Jack Alan Reynolds
Learn more about PhilPapers
Theory and Decision 50 (2):149-167 (2001)
Research has established that exposure to a combination of diagnostic (i.e., relevant) and nondiagnostic (i.e., irrelevant) information results in predictions that are more regressive than predictions based on diagnostic information (Hackenbrack, 1992; Hoffman and Patton, 1997). This phenomenon has been labeled the dilution effect (e.g., Tetlock and Boettger, 1989) and has been documented when individuals make predictions. This study tests for the dilution effect when small groups make predictions, and examines the effect of using a procedure designed to reduce the dilution effect. Results indicate that group predictions are influenced by nondiagnostic information in the same manner as are individual predictions, and allowing participants to rate the diagnosticity of information prior to making predictions does not reduce the dilution effect
|Keywords||Dilution effect Nondiagnostic information Small groups Individual predictions Uncertain outcome|
No categories specified
(categorize this paper)
Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
|Through your library|
References found in this work BETA
No references found.
Citations of this work BETA
No citations found.
Similar books and articles
Frank E. Ritter, Josef F. Krems & Martin R. K. Baumann (2011). Learning From Examples Does Not Prevent Order Effects in Belief Revision. Thinking and Reasoning 16 (2):98-130.
Ilan Fischer & Ravid Bogaire (2012). The Group Calibration Index: A Group-Based Approach for Assessing Forecasters' Expertise When External Outcome Data Are Missing. [REVIEW] Theory and Decision 73 (4):671-685.
Roger C. Buck (1963). Reflexive Predictions. Philosophy of Science 30 (4):359-369.
Stephen G. Brush (1994). Dynamics of Theory Change: The Role of Predictions. PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1994:133 - 145.
Lorne Tepperman (1985). Informatics and Society: Will There Be an 'Information Revolution'? [REVIEW] Journal of Business Ethics 4 (5):395 - 399.
Gordon N. Fleming (1992). The Objectivity and Invariance of Quantum Predictions. PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1992:104 - 113.
Josef Perner & Anton Kühberger (2002). Framing and the Theory-Simulation Controversy. Predicting People's Decisions. Mind and Society 3 (2):65-80.
Paul Egré (forthcoming). Intentional Action and the Semantics of Gradable Expressions (On the Knobe Effect). In B. Copley & F. Martin (eds.), Causation in Grammatical Structures. Oxford University Press.
Matthew Kopec (2011). A More Fulfilling (and Frustrating) Take on Reflexive Predictions. Philosophy of Science 78 (5):1249-1259.
Mary B. Williams (1973). Falsifiable Predictions of Evolutionary Theory. Philosophy of Science 40 (4):518-537.
Added to index2010-09-02
Total downloads33 ( #145,596 of 1,924,703 )
Recent downloads (6 months)16 ( #40,232 of 1,924,703 )
How can I increase my downloads?