David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Ezio Di Nucci
Jonathan Jenkins Ichikawa
Jack Alan Reynolds
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Theory and Decision 54 (4):287-314 (2003)
The conjunction fallacy occurs whenever probability compounds are thought of as more likely than its component probabilities alone. In the experiment we present, subjects chose between simple and compound lotteries after some practice. Depending on the condition, they were given more or less information about the nature of probability compounds. The conjunction fallacy was surprisingly robust. There was, however, a puzzling dissociation between verbal and behavioral learning: verbal responses were sensitive, but actual choices entirely insensitive, to the amount of verbal instructions being provided. This might reflect a dichotomy between implicit and explicit learning. Caution must be exercised in generalizing results from what people say to what people do
|Keywords||conjunction fallacy heuristics learning probability compounding|
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Stefania Sitzia, Jiwei Zheng & Daniel John Zizzo (2015). Inattentive Consumers in Markets for Services. Theory and Decision 79 (2):307-332.
Anders Winman, Peter Juslin, Marcus Lindskog, HÃ¥kan Nilsson & Neda Kerimi (2014). The Role of ANS Acuity and Numeracy for the Calibration and the Coherence of Subjective Probability Judgments. Frontiers in Psychology 5.
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