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  1. The Myopia of Imperfect Climate Models: The Case of UKCP09.Roman Frigg, Leonard A. Smith & David A. Stainforth - 2013 - Philosophy of Science 80 (5):886-897.
    The United Kingdom Climate Impacts Program’s UKCP09 project makes high-resolution forecasts of climate during the 21st century using state of the art global climate models. The aim of this paper is to introduce and analyze the methodology used and then urge some caution. Given the acknowledged systematic errors in all current climate models, treating model outputs as decision relevant probabilistic forecasts can be seriously misleading. This casts doubt on our ability, today, to make trustworthy, high-resolution predictions out to the end (...)
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  • Laplace's demon and the adventures of his apprentices.Roman Frigg, Seamus Bradley, Hailiang Du & Leonard A. Smith - 2014 - Philosophy of Science 81 (1):31-59.
    The sensitive dependence on initial conditions (SDIC) associated with nonlinear models imposes limitations on the models’ predictive power. We draw attention to an additional limitation than has been underappreciated, namely, structural model error (SME). A model has SME if the model dynamics differ from the dynamics in the target system. If a nonlinear model has only the slightest SME, then its ability to generate decision-relevant predictions is compromised. Given a perfect model, we can take the effects of SDIC into account (...)
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  • Probabilistic forecasting: why model imperfection is a poison pill.Roman Frigg, Seamus Bradley, Reason L. Machete & Leonard A. Smith - 2013 - In Hanne Andersen, Dennis Dieks, Wenceslao Gonzalez, Thomas Ubel & Gregory Wheeler (eds.), New Challenges to Philosophy of Science. pp. 479-492.
    This volume is a serious attempt to open up the subject of European philosophy of science to real thought, and provide the structural basis for the interdisciplinary development of its specialist fields, but also to provoke reflection on the idea of ‘European philosophy of science’. This efforts should foster a contemporaneous reflection on what might be meant by philosophy of science in Europe and European philosophy of science, and how in fact awareness of it could assist philosophers interpret and motivate (...)
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