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  1. Rationality and Future Discounting.Arif Ahmed - 2018 - Topoi 39 (2):245-256.
    The best justification of time-discounting is roughly that it is rational to care less about your more distant future because there is less of you around to have it. I argue that the standard version of this argument, which treats both psychological continuity and psychological connectedness as reasons to care about your future, can only rationalize an irrational—because exploitable—form of future discounting.
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  2.  86
    What Rationality Is.Arif Ahmed - manuscript
    A choice function C is rational iff: if it allows a path through a sequence of decisions with a particular outcome, then that outcome is amongst the ones that C would have chosen from amongst all the possible outcomes of the sequence. This implies, and it is the strongest definition that implies, that anyone who is irrational could be talked out of their own preferences. It also implies weak but non-vacuous constraints on choices over ends. These do not include alpha (...)
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  3.  56
    Evidence, Decision and Causality.Arif Ahmed - 2014 - Cambridge University Press.
    Most philosophers agree that causal knowledge is essential to decision-making: agents should choose from the available options those that probably cause the outcomes that they want. This book argues against this theory and in favour of evidential or Bayesian decision theory, which emphasises the symptomatic value of options over their causal role. It examines a variety of settings, including economic theory, quantum mechanics and philosophical thought-experiments, where causal knowledge seems to make a practical difference. The arguments make novel use of (...)
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  4. Intelligent Tutoring Systems Survey for the Period 2000- 2018.Abdelbaset Almasri, Adel Ahmed, Naser Al-Masri, Yousef Abu Sultan, Ahmed Y. Mahmoud, Ihab Zaqout, Alaa N. Akkila & Samy S. Abu-Naser - 2019 - International Journal of Academic Engineering Research (IJAER) 3 (5):21-37.
    The main goals of Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITS) are: providing highly developed instructional guidance on a one-to-one foundation that is improved than what is attained with traditional computer aided instruction and is analogous to that of a decent human tutor; and developing and testing models of intelligent processes associated with instruction. ITS is a subfield of artificial intelligence. ITS consists of four interacting components: the student model which embodies the student's present knowledge state, the pedagogical module which comprises appropriate instructional (...)
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  5. Survey of Rule-Based Systems.Naser Masri, Yousef Abu Sultan, Alaa N. Akkila, Abdelbaset Almasri, Adel Ahmed, Ahmed Y. Mahmoud, Ihab Zaqout & Samy S. Abu-Naser - 2019 - International Journal of Academic Information Systems Research (IJAISR) 3 (7):1-23.
    Rule-Based Systems (RBS) are computer programs based on technologies established by Artificial Intelligence research, which express some characteristics of human knowledge and expertise to perform tasks normally done by human experts. Thus, a Rule -based system has two distinguishing features: a Rule base and an inference engine. The first part, the Rule base, represents facts about the world. The second part, the inference engine, allows new knowledge to be inferred. Most commonly, it can take the form of IF-THEN rules coupled (...)
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  6.  56
    Objective Value Is Always Newcombizable.Arif Ahmed & Jack Spencer - forthcoming - Mind:fzz070.
    This paper argues that evidential decision theory is incompatible with options having objective values.
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  7. The Impact of Information Technology Used on the Nature of Administrators Work at Al-Azhar University in Gaza.Adel A. Ahmed, Samy S. Abu-Naser, Suliman A. El Talla & Mazen J. Al Shobaki - 2018 - International Journal of Academic Information Systems Research (IJAISR) 2 (6):1-20.
    The study aimed to examine the Information Technology used and its effect on the nature of the work of the administrators at Al-Azhar University in Gaza. The researchers used the analytical descriptive method through a questionnaire randomly distributed among the employees of Al-Azhar University in Gaza. The study was conducted on a sample of 77 employees the response rate was 92.20%. The study reached a number of results, the most important of which is that there is a high degree of (...)
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  8.  84
    Accuracy and Statistical Evidence.Arif Ahmed - manuscript
    Abstract. Suppose that the word of an eyewitness makes it 80% probable that A committed a crime, and that B is drawn from a population in which the incidence rate of that crime is 80%. Many philosophers and legal theorists have held that if this is our only evidence against those parties then (i) we may be justified in finding against A but not against B; but (ii) that doing so incurs a loss in the accuracy of our findings. This (...)
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  9. Knowledge-Based Systems Survey.Adel Ahmed, Naser Masri, Yousef Abu Sultan, Alaa N. Akkila, Abdelbaset Almasri, Ahmed Y. Mahmoud, Ihab Zaqout & Samy S. Abu-Naser - 2019 - International Journal of Academic Engineering Research (IJAER) 3 (7):1-22.
    Knowledge-Based Systems (KBS) are computer programs based on technologies established by Artificial Intelligence research, which express some characteristics of human knowledge and expertise to perform tasks normally done by human experts. Thus, a knowledge-based system has two distinguishing features: a knowledge base and an inference engine. The first part, the knowledge base, represents facts about the world. The second part, the inference engine, allows new knowledge to be inferred. Most commonly, it can take the form of IF-THEN rules coupled with (...)
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  10. Causal Decision Theory: A Counterexample.Arif Ahmed - 2013 - Philosophical Review 122 (2):289-306.
    The essay presents a novel counterexample to Causal Decision Theory (CDT). Its interest is that it generates a case in which CDT violates the very principles that motivated it in the first place. The essay argues that the objection applies to all extant formulations of CDT and that the only way out for that theory is a modification of it that entails incompatibilism. The essay invites the reader to find this consequence of CDT a reason to reject it.
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  11. Human Computer Interaction Design of the LP-ITS: Linear Programming Intelligent Tutoring Systems.S. Abu Naser, A. Ahmed, N. Al-Masri & Y. Abu Sultan - 2011 - .
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  12.  91
    Survey of Intelligent Tutoring Systems Up to the End of 2017.Alaa N. Akkila, Abdelbaset Almasri, Adel Ahmed, Naser Al-Masri, Yousef Abu Sultan, Ahmed Y. Mahmoud, Ihab Zaqout & Samy S. Abu-Naser - 2019 - International Journal of Academic Information Systems Research (IJAISR) 3 (4):36-49.
    The main goals of Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITS) are: providing highly developed instructional guidance on a one-to-one foundation that is improved than what is attained with traditional computer aided instruction and is analogous to that of a decent human tutor; and developing and testing models of intelligent processes associated with instruction. ITS is a subfield of artificial intelligence. ITS consists of four interacting components: the student model which embodies the student's present knowledge state, the pedagogical module which comprises appropriate instructional (...)
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  13. Causal Decision Theory and the Fixity of the Past.Arif Ahmed - 2014 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 65 (4):665-685.
    Causal decision theory (CDT) cares only about the effects of a contemplated act, not its causes. The article constructs a case in which CDT consequently recommends a bet that the agent is certain to lose, rather than a bet that she is certain to win. CDT is plainly giving wrong advice in this case. It therefore stands refuted. 1 The Argument2 The Argument in More Detail2.1 The betting mechanism2.2 Soft determinism2.3 The content of P 2.4 The argument again3 The Descriptive (...)
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  14. Hume and the Independent Witnesses.Arif Ahmed - 2015 - Mind 124 (496):1013-1044.
    The Humean argument concerning miracles says that one should always think it more likely that anyone who testifies to a miracle is lying or deluded than that the alleged miracle actually occurred, and so should always reject any single report of it. A longstanding and widely accepted objection is that even if this is right, the concurring and non-collusive testimony of many witnesses should make it rational to believe in whatever miracle they all report. I argue that on the contrary, (...)
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  15. Dicing with Death.Arif Ahmed - 2014 - Analysis 74 (4):587-592.
    You should rather play hide-and-seek against someone who cannot predict where you hide than against someone who can, as the article illustrates in connection with a high-stakes example. Causal Decision Theory denies this. So Causal Decision Theory is false.
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  16. Walters on Conjunction Conditionalization.Arif Ahmed - 2011 - Proceedings of the Aristotelian Society 111 (1pt1):115-122.
    This discussion note examines a recent argument for the principle that any counterfactual with true components is itself true. That argument rests upon two widely accepted principles of counterfactual logic to which the paper presents counterexamples. The conclusion speculates briefly upon the wider lessons that philosophers should draw from these examples for the semantics of counterfactuals.
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  17. Out of the Closet.A. Ahmed - 2011 - Analysis 71 (1):77-85.
  18.  72
    Survey of Intelligent Tutoring Systems Up To the End of 2016.Alaa N. Akkila, Abdelbaset Almasri, Adel Ahmed, Naser Masri, Yousef Abu Sultan, Ahmed Y. Mahmoud, Ihab Zaqout & Samy S. Abu-Naser - 2019 - International Journal of Academic Information Systems Research (IJAISR) 3 (3):71-81.
    The main goals of Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITS) are: providing highly developed instructional guidance on a one-to-one foundation that is improved than what is attained with traditional computer aided instruction and is analogous to that of a decent human tutor; and developing and testing models of intelligent processes associated with instruction. ITS is a subfield of artificial intelligence. ITS consists of four interacting components: the student model which embodies the student's present knowledge state, the pedagogical module which comprises appropriate instructional (...)
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  19. Causal Decision Theory and EPR Correlations.Arif Ahmed & Adam Caulton - 2014 - Synthese 191 (18):4315-4352.
    The paper argues that on three out of eight possible hypotheses about the EPR experiment we can construct novel and realistic decision problems on which (a) Causal Decision Theory and Evidential Decision Theory conflict (b) Causal Decision Theory and the EPR statistics conflict. We infer that anyone who fully accepts any of these three hypotheses has strong reasons to reject Causal Decision Theory. Finally, we extend the original construction to show that anyone who gives any of the three hypotheses any (...)
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  20. Push the Button.Arif Ahmed - 2012 - Philosophy of Science 79 (3):386-395.
    Opponents of Causal Decision Theory (CDT) sometimes claim (i) that it gives the wrong advice in Egan-style cases, where the CDT-endorsed act brings news that it causes a bad outcome; (ii) that CDT gives the right advice in Newcomb cases, where it is known in advance that the CDT-act causes you to be richer than the alternative. This paper argues that (i) and (ii) cannot both be true if rational preference over acts is transitive.
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  21.  84
    The Meaning of Belief: Religion From an Atheist’s Point of View, by Tim Crane. [REVIEW]Arif Ahmed - 2018 - Mind 127 (508):1261-1270.
    The Meaning of Belief: Religion from an Atheist’s Point of View, by CraneTim. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 2017. Pp. xiv + 203.
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  22.  59
    Anemia Expert System Diagnosis Using Sl5 Object.Aldaour F. Ahmed & Samy S. Abu-Naser - 2019 - International Journal of Academic Information Systems Research (IJAISR) 3 (5):9-17.
    Background: Anemia is a condition that occurs due to a lower concentration of hemoglobin than the normal level (non-pregnant adult females less than 11 g / dL and males younger than 13 g / dL). Because of the low level of hemoglobin, the body's organs suffer from lack of enough oxygen, so patients complain of signs and symptoms such as fatigue, headaches, lack of concentration, lethargy and others. Objectives: The main goal of this expert system is to get the appropriate (...)
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  23.  52
    Belief and Religious ‘Belief’.Arif Ahmed - forthcoming - Religious Studies:1-15.
    Is the analysis of religion best conducted in terms of the beliefs of its practitioners? I describe a Wittgenstein-inspired approach to belief on which it is dubious that religious practices satisfy the criteria for the attribution of belief. I defend this more moderate and plausible version of Needham's thesis against two natural reasons to think religious belief widespread.
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  24.  17
    Equal Opportunities in Newcomb’s Problem and Elsewhere.Arif Ahmed - forthcoming - Mind:fzz073.
    The paper discusses Ian Wells’s recent argument that there is a decision problem in which followers of Evidential Decision Theory end up poorer than followers of Causal Decision Theory despite having the same opportunities for money. It defends Evidential Decision Theory against Wells’s argument, on the following grounds. Wells's has not presented a decision problem in which his main claim is true. Four possible decision problems can be generated from his central example, in each of which followers of Evidential Decision (...)
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  25. Sequential Choice and the Agent's Perspective.Arif Ahmed - manuscript
    Causal Decision Theory reckons the choice-worthiness of an option to be completely independent of its evidential bearing on its non-effects. But after one has made a choice this bearing is relevant to future decisions. Therefore it is possible to construct problems of sequential choice in which Causal Decision Theory makes a guaranteed loss. So Causal Decision Theory is wrong. The source of the problem is the idea that agents have a special perspective on their own contemplated actions, from which evidential (...)
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  26.  85
    Don’T Look Now.Bernhard Salow & Arif Ahmed - 2019 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 70 (2):327-350.
    Good’s theorem is the apparent platitude that it is always rational to ‘look before you leap’: to gather information before making a decision when doing so is free. We argue that Good’s theorem is not platitudinous and may be false. And we argue that the correct advice is rather to ‘make your act depend on the answer to a question’. Looking before you leap is rational when, but only when, it is a way to do this.
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  27. Arntzenius on ‘Why Ain’Cha Rich?’.Arif Ahmed & Huw Price - 2012 - Erkenntnis 77 (1):15-30.
    The best-known argument for Evidential Decision Theory (EDT) is the ‘Why ain’cha rich?’ challenge to rival Causal Decision Theory (CDT). The basis for this challenge is that in Newcomb-like situations, acts that conform to EDT may be known in advance to have the better return than acts that conform to CDT. Frank Arntzenius has recently proposed an ingenious counter argument, based on an example in which, he claims, it is predictable in advance that acts that conform to EDT will do (...)
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  28.  18
    Frankfurt Cases and the Newcomb Problem.Arif Ahmed - forthcoming - Philosophical Studies:1-18.
    A standard argument for one-boxing in Newcomb’s Problem is ‘Why Ain’cha Rich?’, which emphasizes that one-boxers typically make a million dollars compared to the thousand dollars that two-boxers can expect. A standard reply is the ‘opportunity defence’: the two-boxers who made a thousand never had an opportunity to make more. The paper argues that the opportunity defence is unavailable to anyone who grants that in another case—a Frankfurt case—the agent is deprived of opportunities in the way that advocates of Frankfurt (...)
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  29.  46
    Delays and Diversity in the Practice of Local Research Ethics Committees.A. H. Ahmed & K. G. Nicholson - 1996 - Journal of Medical Ethics 22 (5):263-266.
    OBJECTIVES: To compare the practices of local research ethics committees and the time they take to obtain ethical approval for a multi-centre study. DESIGN: A retrospective analysis of outcome of applications for a multi-centre study to local research ethics committees. SETTING: Thirty-six local research ethics committees covering 38 district health authorities in England. MAIN MEASURES: Response of chairmen and women, the time required to obtain approval, and questions asked in application forms. RESULTS: We received replies from all 36 chairmen contacted: (...)
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  30. Rigidity and Essentiality: Reply to Gomez-Torrente.A. Ahmed - 2009 - Mind 118 (469):121-133.
    Mario Gómez-Torrente (2006) says that whilst theoretical identifications (e.g. 'All lightning is electrical discharge') do not entail their own necessitations, they do entail the necessitation of a weaker statement. And he claims that this weaker entailment serves Kripke's purposes as well as the stronger one would have. I argue that this is false. Section 1 says what the weaker entailment is; section 2 says why it matters. Section 3 argues that the entailment identified at section 1 does not meet the (...)
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  31. Signaling Systems and the Transcendental Deduction.A. Ahmed - forthcoming - In T. Goldschmidt K. Pearce (ed.), Idealism: New Essays in Metaphysics.
    The paper offers a model of Kant's claim that unity of consciousness entails objectivity of experience. This claim has nothing especially to do with thought, language or the categories but is a general truth about arbitrary signaling systems of the sort modeled in the paper. In conclusion I draw some consequences for various forms of idealism.
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  32.  83
    Consenting Options for Posthumous Organ Donation: Presumed Consent and Incentives Are Not Favored. [REVIEW]Muhammad M. Hammami, Hunaida M. Abdulhameed, Kristine A. Concepcion, Abdullah Eissa, Sumaya Hammami, Hala Amer, Abdelraheem Ahmed & Eman Al-Gaai - 2012 - BMC Medical Ethics 13 (1):32-.
    Background Posthumous organ procurement is hindered by the consenting process. Several consenting systems have been proposed. There is limited information on public relative attitudes towards various consenting systems, especially in Middle Eastern/Islamic countries. Methods We surveyed 698 Saudi Adults attending outpatient clinics at a tertiary care hospital. Preference and perception of norm regarding consenting options for posthumous organ donation were explored. Participants ranked (1, most agreeable) the following, randomly-presented, options from 1 to 11: no-organ-donation, presumed consent, informed consent by donor-only, (...)
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  33. Hale on Some Arguments for the Necessity of Necessity.Arif Ahmed - 2000 - Mind 109 (433):81-91.
    The paper argues against Bob Hale's (1999) argument that enquirers must regard some truths as necessary truths. Hale's argument against Quinean skepticism. like many similar arguments due to McFetridge, Wright and others, involves a quantifier shift fallacy.
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  34. Modality: Metaphysics, Logic, and Epistemology, Bob Hale and Aviv Hoffmann (Eds). [REVIEW]Arif Ahmed - 2012 - Mind 121 (483):817-822.
  35. Wittgenstein's Philosophical Investigations: A Critical Guide.Arif Ahmed (ed.) - 2010 - Cambridge University Press.
    Published in 1953, Wittgenstein's Philosophical Investigations had a deeply unsettling effect upon our most basic philosophical ideas concerning thought, sensation, and language. Its claim that philosophical questions of meaning necessitate a close analysis of the way we use language continues to influence Anglo-American philosophy today. However, its compressed and dialogic prose is not always easy to follow. This collection of essays deepens but also challenges our understanding of the work's major themes, such as the connection between meaning and use, the (...)
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  36. Evidential Decision Theory and Medical Newcomb Problems.Arif Ahmed - 2005 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 56 (2):191-198.
    has offered evidential decision theorists a defence against the charge that they make unintuitive recommendations for cases like Newcomb's Problem. He says that when conditional probabilities are assessed from the agent's point of view, evidential decision theory makes the same recommendation as intuition. I argue that calculating the probabilities in Price's way leads to no recommendation. It condemns the agent to perpetual oscillation between different options. Price's Argument Instability Objections Conclusion.
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  37. Smokers and Psychos: Egan Cases Don't Work.Arif Ahmed - manuscript
    Andy Egan's Smoking Lesion and Psycho Button cases are supposed to be counterexamples to Causal Decision Theory. This paper argues that they are not: more precisely, it argues that if CDT makes the right call in Newcomb's problem then it makes the right call in Egan cases too.
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  38.  4
    Review of Lara Buchak, *Risk and Rationality*. [REVIEW]Arif Ahmed - 2016 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science Review of Books.
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  39.  18
    Wittgenstein's Philosophical Investigations: A Critical Guide.Arif Ahmed (ed.) - 2010 - Cambridge University Press.
    Published in 1953, Wittgenstein's Philosophical Investigations had a deeply unsettling effect upon our most basic philosophical ideas concerning thought, sensation and language. Its claim that philosophical questions of meaning necessitate a close analysis of the way we use language continues to influence Anglo-American philosophy today. However, its compressed and dialogic prose is not always easy to follow. This collection of essays deepens but also challenges our understanding of the work's major themes, such as the connection between meaning and use, the (...)
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  40. Infallibility in the Newcomb Problem.Arif Ahmed - 2015 - Erkenntnis 80 (2):261-273.
    It is intuitively attractive to think that it makes a difference in Newcomb’s problem whether or not the predictor is infallible, in the sense of being certainly actually correct. This paper argues that that view is irrational and manifests a well-documented cognitive illusion.
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  41. Review: John McDowell. [REVIEW]Arif Ahmed - 2006 - Mind 115 (458):403-409.
  42. From Game Theoretical Accounts of Cooperation to Meta-Ethical Choices.Arif Ahmed - 2013 - Studies in Christian Ethics 26 (2):176-183.
  43.  83
    Exploiting Cyclic Preference.Arif Ahmed - 2017 - Mind 126 (504):975-1022.
    Probably many people have cyclic preferences: they prefer A to B, B to C and C to A for some objects of choice A, B and C. Recent work has resurrected the objection to cyclic preference that agents possessing them are open to exploitation by means of ‘money pumps’. The paper briefly reviews this work and proposes a general approach to problems of sequential choice that makes cyclic preference immune to exploitation by means of these new mechanisms.
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  44.  40
    Agency and Causation.Arif Ahmed - 2007 - In Huw Price & Richard Corry (eds.), Causation, Physics, and the Constitution of Reality: Russell's Republic Revisited. Oxford University Press.
    The paper distinguishes versions of the 'Agency theory of causation' and defends some of them against the charge of circularity.
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  45.  85
    Saul Kripke.Arif Ahmed - 2007 - London: Bloomsbury Academic.
    Saul Kripke is one of the most important and original post-war analytic philosophers. His work has undeniably had a profound impact on the philosophy of language and the philosophy of mind. Yet his ideas are amongst the most challenging frequently encountered by students of philosophy. In this informative and accessible book, Arif Ahmed provides a clear and thorough account of Kripke's philosophy, his major works and ideas, providing an ideal guide to the important and complex thought of this key philosopher. (...)
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  46.  14
    Do LGBT Workplace Diversity Policies Create Value for Firms?Mohammed Hossain, Muhammad Atif, Ammad Ahmed & Lokman Mia - forthcoming - Journal of Business Ethics:1-17.
    We show that the U.S. anti-discriminatory laws prohibiting discrimination in the workplace based on sexual orientation and gender identity identities) spur innovation, which ultimately leads to higher firm performance. We use the Human Rights Campaign’s Corporate Equality Index of 398 U.S. firms between 2011 and 2014, and find a significantly positive relationship between CEI and firm innovation. We also find that an interacting effect of CEI and firm innovation leads to higher firm performance. We use our understanding of Rawls’ Theory (...)
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  47. Causation and Decision.Arif Ahmed - 2010 - Proceedings of the Aristotelian Society 110 (2pt2):111-131.
    Sophisticated ‘tickle’-style defences of Evidential Decision Theory take your motivational state to screen off your act from any state that is causally independent of it, thus ensuring that EDT and CDT converge. That leads to unacceptable instability in cases in which the correct action is obvious. We need a more liberal conception of what the agent controls. It follows that an ordinary deliberator should sometimes consider the past and not only the future to be subject to her present choice.
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  48.  18
    Deductive Inference and Aspect Perception.Arif Ahmed - 2010 - In Wittgenstein's Philosophical Investigations: A Critical Guide. Cambridge University Press.
    Deductive inference seems to reveal semantic connections between their premise(s) and conclusion that were there all along. This looks inconsistent with Wittgenstein's later views on meaning. The paper argues that W's treatment of aspects suggests a Wittgensteinian treatment of deduction that accommodates the troublesome phenomenon without conceding its force.
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  49. W. V. Quine.Arif Ahmed - 2008 - In Cheryl Misak (ed.), The Oxford Handbook of American Philosophy. Oxford University Press. pp. 290-338.
    The paper summarizes the main points of Quine's epistemology and philosophy of language: empiricism, holism, semantic behaviourism, inscrutability of reference, indterminacy of translation and the rejection of analyticity.
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  50. Review: David Pears: Paradox and Platitude in Wittgenstein's Philosophy. [REVIEW]A. Ahmed - 2009 - Mind 118 (469):200-203.
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