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Andrey Korotayev [12]Andrey V. Korotayev [3]
  1. Will the Global Crisis Lead to Global Transformations? 2. The Coming Epoch of New Coalitions.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2010 - Journal of Globalization Studies 1 (2):166-183.
    This article presents possible answers, and their respective probabilities, to the question, ‘What are the consequences of the present global crisis in the proximate future of the World System?’ It also attempts to describe the basic characteristics of the forthcoming ‘Epoch of New Coalitions’ and to forecast certain future conditions. Among the problems analyzed in this paper are the following: What does the weakening of the economic role of the USA as the World System centre mean? Will there be a (...)
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  2. Hierarchy and Power in the History of Civilisations: Political Aspects of Modernity.Leonid Grinin, Dmitry Beliaev & Andrey Korotayev (eds.) - 2008 - Librocom.
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  3.  40
    The Coming Epoch of New Coalitions: Possible Scenarios of the Near Future.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2011 - World Futures 67 (8):531 - 563.
    This article analyzes some important aspects of socioeconomic and political development of the world in the near future. The future always stems from the present. The first part of the article is devoted to the study of some crucial events of the present, which could be regarded as precursors of forthcoming fundamental changes. In particular, it is shown that the turbulent events of late 2010 and 2011 in the Arab World may well be regarded as a start of the global (...)
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  4.  38
    A Mathematical Model of Juglar Cycles and the Current Global Crisis.Leonid Grinin, Andrey Korotayev & Sergey Malkov - 2010 - In Leonid Grinin, Peter Herrmann, Andrey Korotayev & Arno Tausch (eds.), History & Mathematics: Processes and Models of Global Dynamics.
    The article presents a verbal and mathematical model of medium-term business cycles (with a characteristic period of 7–11 years) known as Juglar cycles. The model takes into account a number of approaches to the analysis of such cycles; in the meantime it also takes into account some of the authors' own generalizations and additions that are important for understanding the internal logic of the cycle, its variability and its peculiarities in the present-time conditions. The authors argue that the most important (...)
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  5.  2
    Transition to a New Global Paradigm of Development and the Role of the United Nations in This Process.Valentina M. Bondarenko, Ilya V. Ilyin & Andrey V. Korotayev - forthcoming - World Futures:1-28.
    In his 2011 article “Global Bifurcation: The Decision Window” Ervin Laszlo notes that “we have reached a watershed in our social and cultural evolution. The sciences of systems tell us that when complex open systems … approach a condition of critical instability, they face a moment of truth: they either transform or break down.” In this article we provide our own vision of this Global Bifurcation. This work stems naturally from the research highlighted in the article titled “Transition to Crisis-Free (...)
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  6.  94
    Social Macroevolution: Growth of the World System Integrity and a System of Phase Transitions.Andrey Korotayev & Leonid Grinin - 2009 - World Futures 65 (7):477-506.
    There are very significant conceptual links between theories of social macroevolution and theories of the World System development. It is shown that the growth of the World System complexity and integrity can be traced through a system of phase transitions of macroevolution. The first set of phase transition is connected with the agrarian, industrial, and information-scientific revolutions (that are interpreted as changes of “production principles”). The second set consists of phase transitions within one production principle. These phase transitions are analyzed (...)
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  7.  27
    Globalization Shuffles Cards of the World Pack: In Which Direction is the Global Economic-Political Balance Shifting?Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2014 - World Futures 70 (8):515-545.
    The article offers forecasts of the geopolitical and geo-economic development of the world in the forthcoming decades. One of the main accusations directed toward globalization is that it deepens the gap between the developed and developing countries dooming them to eternal backwardness. The article demonstrates that the actual situation is very different. It is shown that this is due to the globalization that the developing countries are generally growing much faster than the developed states, the World System core starts weakening (...)
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  8.  1
    The Future of the Global Economy in the Light of Inflationary and Deflationary Trends and Long Cycles Theory.E. Grinin Leonid & V. Korotayev Andrey - forthcoming - World Futures:1-20.
    Recent years and months have evidenced an increase in deflationary phenomena. The present article defines the reasons for the problem, explains the irregularity of the inflation–deflation processes in the world and forecasts on this basis that the crisis-depressive phase of development in the global economy will continue for a relatively long time. Based on an analysis of available resources and the theory of long cycles, we believe that in the next 5–10 years, the global economy will continue being in the (...)
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  9.  28
    Explosive Population Growth in Tropical Africa: Crucial Omission in Development Forecasts—Emerging Risks and Way Out.Julia Zinkina & Andrey Korotayev - 2014 - World Futures 70 (2):120-139.
    (2014). Explosive Population Growth in Tropical Africa: Crucial Omission in Development Forecasts—Emerging Risks and Way Out. World Futures: Vol. 70, No. 2, pp. 120-139.
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  10.  33
    Aromorphoses in Biological and Social Evolution: Some General Rules for Biological and Social Forms of Macroevolution.Leonid Grinin, Alexander Markov, Markov & Andrey Korotayev - 2009 - Social Evolution and History 8 (2).
    The comparison between biological and social macroevolution is a very important (though insufficiently studied) subject whose analysis renders new significant possibilities to comprehend the processes, trends, mechanisms, and peculiarities of each of the two types of macroevolution. Of course, there are a few rather important (and very understandable) differences between them; however, it appears possible to identify a number of fundamental similarities. One may single out at least three fundamental sets of factors determining those similarities. First of all, those similarities (...)
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  11.  25
    Does “Arab Spring” Mean The Beginning Of World System Reconfiguration?Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2012 - World Futures 68 (7):471 - 505.
    In a previous article, ?The Coming Epoch of New Coalitions: Possible Scenarios of the Near Future? (Grinin and Korotayev 2011), it was preliminarily demonstrated that the turbulent events of late 2010 and 2011 in the Arab World may well be regarded as a start of the global reconfiguration. The subsequent events have confirmed this supposition. That is why in the present article we develop this important theme. The article offers a thorough analysis of the internal conditions of Arab countries on (...)
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  12.  5
    Alternatives of Social Evolution.Dmitri M. Bondarenko, Leonid E. Grinin & Andrey V. Korotayev - 2004 - In Leonid Grinin, Robert Carneiro, Dmitri Bondarenko, Nikolay Kradin & Andrey Korotayev (eds.), The Early State, its Alternatives and Analogues. ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House. pp. 3--27.
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  13. Hierarchy and Power in the History of Civilizations: Cultural Dimensions.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev (eds.) - 2009 - Moscow: KRASAND.
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  14.  12
    History & Mathematics: Processes and Models of Global Dynamics.Leonid Grinin, Peter Herrmann, Andrey Korotayev & Arno Tausch (eds.) - 2010
    A more and more important role is played by new directions in historical research that study long-term dynamic processes and quantitative changes. This kind of history can hardly develop without the application of mathematical methods. The history is studied more and more as a system of various processes, within which one can detect waves and cycles of different lengths – from a few years to several centuries, or even millennia. This issue is the third collective monograph in the series of (...)
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  15.  5
    The Early State, Its Alternatives and Analogues.Leonid Grinin, Robert Carneiro, Dmitri Bondarenko, Nikolay Kradin & Andrey Korotayev (eds.) - 2004 - ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House.
    Henri JM Claessen Was the State Inevitable? ● Leonid E. Grinin The Early State and Its Analogues: A Comparative Analysis ...
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