17 found
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  1. Decision Science: From Ramsey to Dual Process Theories.Nils-Eric Sahlin, Annika Wallin & Johannes Persson - 2010 - Synthese 172 (1):129-143.
    The hypothesis that human reasoning and decision-making can be roughly modeled by Expected Utility Theory has been at the core of decision science. Accumulating evidence has led researchers to modify the hypothesis. One of the latest additions to the field is Dual Process theory, which attempts to explain variance between participants and tasks when it comes to deviations from Expected Utility Theory. It is argued that Dual Process theories at this point cannot replace previous theories, since they, among other things, (...)
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  2. Understanding Risk in Forest Ecosystem Services: Implications for Effective Risk Management, Communication and Planning.Kristina Blennow, Johannes Persson, Annika Wallin, Niklas Vareman & Erik Persson - 2014 - Forestry 87:219-228.
    Uncertainty, insufficient information or information of poor quality, limited cognitive capacity and time, along with value conflicts and ethical considerations, are all aspects thatmake risk managementand riskcommunication difficult. This paper provides a review of different risk concepts and describes how these influence risk management, communication and planning in relation to forest ecosystem services. Based on the review and results of empirical studies, we suggest that personal assessment of risk is decisive in the management of forest ecosystem services. The results are (...)
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  3.  22
    A Peace Treaty for the Rationality Wars? External Validity and its Relation to Normative and Descriptive Theories of Rationality.Annika Wallin - unknown
    If we know that certain ways of making decisions are associated with real-life success, is this then how we should decide? In this paper the relationship between normative and descriptive theories of decision-making is examined. First, it is shown that the history of the decision sciences ensures that it is impossible to separate descriptive theories from normative ones. Second, recent psychological research implies new ways of arguing from the descriptive to the normative. The paper ends with an evaluation of how (...)
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  4.  66
    Is Egocentric Bias Evidence for Simulation Theory?Annika Wallin - 2011 - Synthese 178 (3):503-514.
    Revised simulation theory allows mental state attributions containing some or all of the attributor's genuine, non-simulated mental states. It is thought that this gives the revised theory an empirical advantage, because unlike theory theory and rationality theory, it can explain egocentric bias. I challenge this view, arguing that theory theory and rationality theory can explain egocentricity by appealing to heuristic mindreading and the diagnosticity of attributors' own beliefs, and that these explanations are as simple and consistent as those provided by (...)
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  5.  31
    Smart People Who Make Simple Heuristics Work.Annika Wallin & Peter Gärdenfors - 2000 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 23 (5):765-765.
    To evaluate the success of simple heuristics we need to know more about how a relevant heuristic is chosen and how we learn which cues are relevant. These meta-abilities are at the core of ecological rationality, rather than the individual heuristics.
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  6.  46
    The Distinction Between Internal and External Validity.Johannes Persson & Annika Wallin - unknown
    Researchers often aim to make correct inferences both about that which is actually studied and about what the results generalize to. The language of internal and external validity is not used by everyone, but many of us would agree that intuitively the distinction makes a lot of sense. Two claims are commonly made with respect to internal and external validity. The first is that internal validity is prior to external validity since there is nothing to generalize if the findings obtained (...)
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  7.  9
    Does Causal Knowledge Help Us Be Faster and More Frugal in Our Decisions?Rocio Garcia-Retamero, Annika Wallin & Anja Dieckmann - unknown
    One challenge that has to be addressed by the fast and frugal heuristics program is how people manage to select, from the abundance of cues that exist in the environment, those to rely on when making decisions. We hypothesize that causal knowledge helps people target particular cues and estimate their validities. This hypothesis was tested in three experiments. Results show that when causal information about some cues was available, participants preferred to search for these cues first and to base their (...)
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  8.  55
    Why Internal Validity is Not Prior to External Validity.Johannes Persson & Annika Wallin - unknown
    We show that the common claim that internal validity should be understood as prior to external validity has, at least, three epistemologically problematic aspects: experimental artefacts, the implications of causal relations, and how the mechanism is measured. Each aspect demonstrates how important external validity is for the internal validity of the experimental result.
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  9.  18
    From Meehl to Fast and Frugal Heuristics - New Insights Into How to Bridge the Clinical-Actuarial Divide.Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos, Thorsten Pachur, Edouard Machery & Annika Wallin - unknown
    It is difficult to overestimate Paul Meehl's influence on judgment and decision-making research. His 'disturbing little book' Clinical versus Statistical Prediction: A Theoretical Analysis and a Review of the Evidence is known as an attack on human judgment and a call for replacing clinicians with actuarial methods. More than 40 years later, fast and frugal heuristics - proposed as models of human judgment - were formalized, tested, and found to be surprisingly accurate, often more so than the actuarial models that (...)
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  10.  11
    Science and Proven Experience : A Swedish Variety of Evidence-Based Medicine?Johannes Persson, Niklas Vareman, Annika Wallin, Lena Wahlberg & Nils-Eric Sahlin - unknown
    A key question for evidence-based medicine is how best to model the way in which EBM should “[integrate] individual clinical expertise and the best external evidence”. We argue that the formulations and models available in the literature today are modest variations on a common theme and face very similar problems. For example, both the early and updated models of evidence-based clinical decisions presented in Haynes, Devereaux and Guyatt assume that EBM consists of, among other things, evidence from clinical research and (...)
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  11.  13
    From Meehl to Fast and Frugal Heuristics : New Insights Into How to Bridge the Clinical–Actuarial Divide.Katsikopoulos Konstantinos, Pachur Thorsten, Machery Eduard & Annika Wallin - unknown
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  12.  10
    The ‘Wicked’ and the ‘Kind’.Yaniv Hanoch & Annika Wallin - unknown
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  13.  8
    Can a Constructivist Distinguish Between Experience and Representation?Annika Wallin - unknown
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  14.  9
    Strategies for Advice Taking: The Role of Epistemic Social Information.Annika Wallin & Richard McElreath - 2015 - Economics and Philosophy 31 (1):67-91.
  15.  23
    Out of the Theoretical Cul-de-Sac.Ralph Hertwig & Annika Wallin - 2004 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 27 (3):342-343.
    A key premise of the heuristics-and-biases program is that heuristics are “quite useful.” Let us now pay more than lip service to this premise, and analyse the environmental structures that make heuristics more or less useful. Let us also strike from the long list of biases those phenomena that are not biases and explore to what degree those that remain are adaptive or can be understood as by-products of adaptive mechanisms.
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  16.  2
    Science and Proven Experience : A Swedish Variety of Evidence Based Medicine and a Way to Better Risk Analysis?Johannes Persson, Niklas Vareman, Annika Wallin, Lena Wahlberg & Nils-Eric Sahlin - forthcoming - Journal of Risk Research.
    A key question for evidence-based medicine is how best to model the way in which EBM should‘[integrate] individual clinical expertise and the best external evidence’. We argue that the formulations and models available in the literature today are modest variations on a common theme and face very similar problems when it comes to risk analysis, which is here understood as a decision procedure comprising a factual assessment of risk, the risk assessment, and the decision what to do based on this (...)
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  17.  5
    Explanation and Environment.Annika Wallin - 2007 - In Johannes Persson & Petri Ylikoski (eds.), Rethinking Explanation. Springer. pp. 163--175.
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