The basic reproduction number R0\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$R_0$$\end{document} is the average number of new infections produced by a typical infective individual in the early stage of an infectious disease, following the introduction of few infective individuals in a completely susceptible population. If R0 1\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$R_0>1$$\end{document} the infection can invade the host population and persist. This threshold quantity is well studied for SIR compartmental (...) or mean field models based on ordinary differential equations, and a general method for its computation has been proposed by van den Driessche and Watmough. We concentrate here on SIR epidemiological models that take into account the contact network N underlying the transmission of the disease. In this context, it is generally admitted that R0\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$R_{0}$$\end{document} can be approximated by the average number R2,3\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$R_{2,3}$$\end{document} of infective individuals of generation three produced by an infective of generation two. We give here a simple analytic formula of R2,3\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$R_{2,3}$$\end{document} for SIR cellular networks. Simulations on two-dimensional cellular networks with von Neumann and Moore neighborhoods show that R2,3\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$R_{2,3}$$\end{document} can be used to capture a threshold phenomenon related the dynamics of SIR cellular network and confirm the good quality of the simple approach proposed recently by Aparicio and Pascual for the particular case of Moore neighborhood. (shrink)

We consider a two-patch epidemiological system where individuals can move from one patch to another, and local interactions between the individuals within a patch are governed by the classical SIRS model. When the time-scale associated with migration is much smaller than the time-scale associated with infection, aggregation methods can be used to simplify the initial complete model formulated as a system of ordinary differential equations. Analysis of the aggregated model then shows that the two-patch basic reproduction rate is (...) smaller than the 1 patch one. We extend this result to a linear chain of P patches . These results are illustrated by some examples for which numerical integration of the system of ordinary differential equations is performed. Simulations of an individual based model implemented with a multi-agent system are also carried out. (shrink)

A growing number of infertile couples and other individuals desiring children are seeking to fulfill their desire for parenthood transnationally through the use of donor gametes and a surrogate. The number of “fertility tourists” from developed countries to low-income countries is growing phenomenally. Indian women, too, are participating as producers in these “biocrossings,” turning India into the surrogacy outsourcing capital of the world in the globalized bioeconomy of assisted reproduction. I argue for a ban on commercial egg (...) donation and surrogacy and a social-justice approach that would hold the state responsible for providing basic social goods to low-income households. I also argue for a gender-justice approach so that women would not be compelled to adopt surrogacy as a strategy for survival and upward social mobility. (shrink)

Assisted reproduction , particularly that performed using donated gametes, increases the prospect of healthy babies being delivered to increasing numbers of people striving for parenthood. The psychosocial, ethical and legislative issues related both to the donation and receipt of gametes are perceived as extraordinarily complicated. In 2009, a research project aimed at mapping the issues was drawn up and implemented in the Czech Republic. The project should have provided material for consultation purposes, for the work of ethical and legislative (...) bodies, and for better interdisciplinary and international communication in reproductive medicine. Work on the project was affected by several unforeseen events, particularly by the drafting and adoption of a new law on ART . The article describes the dynamic and structural changes occurring within the project due to drafting of the bill as well as the changes and consequences resulting from other circumstances related to the topic researched. (shrink)

Traditionally, two main rationales for the provision of prenatal testing and screening are identified: the expansion of women’s reproductive choices and the reduction of the burden of disease on society. With the number of prenatal tests available and the increasing potential for their widespread use, it is necessary to examine whether the reproductive autonomy model remains useful in upholding the autonomy of pregnant women or whether it allows public health considerations and even eugenic aims to be smuggled in under (...) the smokescreen of autonomy. In this article I argue that if we are serious about upholding women’s autonomy in the context of prenatal testing, what is needed is a model based on a more robust conception of reproductive autonomy, such as the one defended by Josephine Johnston and Rachel Zacharias as ‘reproductive autonomy worth having’. While Johnston and Zacharias put forward a basic outline of this conception, I apply it to the specific case of prenatal testing and show how it responds to objections levelled against the reproductive autonomy model. I argue that adopting this kind of conception is necessary to avoid fundamental challenges to women’s autonomy when it comes to prenatal screening and testing. (shrink)

The theory is presented that the sexual process is a repair mechanism which maintains redundancy within the sub-structure of hierarchical, self-reproducing organisms. In order to keep the problems within mathematically tractable limits , a simple model is introduced: a wheel with 6 spokes, 3 of them vital and 3 redundant, symbolizes the individual . Random accidents destroy spokes; the wheels replicate at regular cycles and engage periodically in pairing and repair phases during which missing spokes are copy-reproduced along the intact (...) spokes of the partner wheel.The hierarchical structure of such a system is analysed and an ‘autonomous unit’ is defined: this is the unit of minimal hierarchical complexity which is capable of perpetuating autonomously all higher and all lower levels of the hierarchy; this is the central unit of selection.Four basic, physical parameters are isolated which determine the essential features of any eucaryotic life cycle: 1. The number of levels of the hierarchy ; 2. the relation between the phases of replication and repair ; 3. the duration of potential repair ; 4. the position of the sexual partners within the hierarchy .The evaluation of fitness components is considered in relation to trends of reproductive patterns in evolution. (shrink)

This article brings together two debates in bioethics more substantively than has been the case until now. One is the methodological debate over "principlism," i.e., the theoretical framework for analyzing and solving ethical problems proposed by Beauchamp and Childress in Principles of Biomedical Ethics. The other is the normative debate about reproductive ethics, i.e., procreative rights and obligations in a time of pervasive opportunities for making detailed choices about the properties and capacities of future people. The obvious point of bringing (...) the debates together is to show how they can illuminate each other in fruitful ways consistent with the method of reflective equilibrium endorsed in PBE. Furthermore, discussions of reproductive ethics is almost absent in PBE, making it an interesting "test case" on how principlist theory can have an impact on and be affected by confrontations with new practices and considerations in biomedicine. Reproductive ethics is especially interesting due to the so-called non-identity considerations, which pose a challenge to common morality views on harm to and respect for persons. My focus is mainly on some methodological points about the import of concrete normative discussions for formulating basic normative principles. However, I unfold a number of substantial points in order to demonstrate this. It is my impression that most writers on principlism underestimate the effect of engaging with concrete problems. Specifically, I conclude that reflecting on procreative obligations provides strong reasons for specifying the basic principles in ways that uncover new dimensions of them and not just new applications. _Key words: _principlism, reproductive ethics, non-identity problem, nonmaleficence, respect for persons. (shrink)

We present a dynamical model of a multi-site fishery. The fish stock is located on a discrete set of fish habitats where it is catched by the fishing fleet. We assume that fishes remain on fishing habitats while the fishing vessels can move at a fast time scale to visit the different fishing sites. We use the existence of two time scales to reduce the dimension of the model : we build an aggregated model considering the habitat fish densities and (...) the total fishing effort. We explore a regulation procedure, which imposes an average residence time in patches. Several equilibria exist, a Fishery Free Equilibria as well as a Sustainable Fishery Equilibria . We show that the dynamics depends on a threshold which is similar to a basic reproduction ratio for the fishery. When the basic reproduction ratio is less or equal to 1, one of the FFEs is globally asymptotically stable , otherwise one of the SFEs is GAS. (shrink)

In this work we deal with a general class of spatially distributed periodic SIS epidemic models with two time scales. We let susceptible and infected individuals migrate between patches with periodic time dependent migration rates. The existence of two time scales in the system allows to describe certain features of the asymptotic behavior of its solutions with the help of a less dimensional, aggregated, system. We derive global reproduction numbers governing the general spatially distributed nonautonomous system through the aggregated (...) system. We apply this result when the mass action law and the frequency dependent transmission law are considered. Comparing these global reproductive numbers to their non spatially distributed counterparts yields the following: adequate periodic migration rates allow global persistence or eradication of epidemics where locally, in absence of migrations, the contrary is expected. (shrink)

Most of the epidemiological models of the Covid-19 pandemic contain the reproduction number as a parameter. In this article we focus on some shortcomings regarding its role in driving health policies and political decisions. First, we summarize what R is and what it is used for. Second, we introduce a three-question matrix for the evaluation of any construct or parameter within a model. We then review the main literature about R to highlight some of its shortcomings and apply (...) to them our three-question matrix. Finally, we argue that these shortcomings are important for an epistemic and political evaluation of R. (shrink)

This volume by a political scientist has important implications for the philosopher, in particular the ethicist. Schall recognizes the urgency for men to come to grips intelligently and realistically with the issues associated with population control and ecology, but he argues that the central issue at stake is the meaning of man himself. Schall argues that in general in the western philosophical tradition nature is not its own norm but serves a necessary though functional relation to man. Man is the (...) norm of the natural, not vice versa. Man, because of his power of reflective thought and freedom of choice, has been regarded as in some way unique and superior to other beings. In this tradition lower animals and inanimate nature were directly related to man as his natural supports inasmuch as man could know and use them. The world of animals and non-living nature was accorded respect, but this respect was ultimately a respect for man, who, because of his intelligence, could understand this world and improve it. In addition, in this tradition each human being was regarded as something valuable in himself, with a right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness; he was not regarded as a pure function or instrument of a larger whole, the human species, expendable if he lost his functional utility. Finally, in this tradition man was regarded as essentially two-sexed, male and female, with human offspring begotten by a union of a human male and a human female and brought to maturity and nurtured in a human family. Today, Schall notes, all these characteristics thought historically to constitute man as a distinct being in nature are being seriously challenged and brought into question. Joshua Lederberg, Charles Galton Darwin, Julian Huxley, Eugene P. Odum, Lynn White, Jean Rostand, and many other biologists, geneticists, zoologists and others are urging a new view of man, a view that subordinates the individual to the species, the species to the world of nature, a view that radically separates human sexuality from human reproductivity. What results basically is a new image of what constitutes a "good" man. The good man, in this view, is not the person who has achieved moral goodness as a result of moral choices taken personally by him in the companionship of his fellow men but is rather the result of genetic or behavioral control exercised by an elite during the process of his coming to be and growing to maturity. This well-documented work, despite occasional rhetorical overstatements, merits careful consideration by philosophers today.--W. E. M. (shrink)

In this paper, a HIV-TB co-infection model is explored which incorporates a non-linear treatment rate for TB. We begin with presenting a HIV-TB co-infection model and analyze both HIV and TB sub-models separately. The basic reproduction numbers corresponding to HIV-only, TB-only and the HIV-TB full model are computed. The disease-free equilibrium point of the HIV sub-model is shown to be locally as well as globally asymptotically stable when its corresponding reproduction number is less than unity. The (...) HIV-only model exhibits a transcritical bifurcation. On the other hand, for the TB sub-model, the disease-free equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable but may not be globally asymptotically stable. We have also analyzed the full HIV-TB co-infection model. Numerical simulations are performed to investigate the effect of treatment rate in the presence of resource limitation for TB infected individuals, which emphasize the fact that to reduce co-infection from the population programs to accelerate the treatment of TB should be implemented. (shrink)

Here, an epidemiological model considering pro and anti-vaccination groups is proposed and analyzed. In this model, susceptible individuals can migrate between these two groups due to the influence of false and true news about safety and efficacy of vaccines. From this model, written as a set of three ordinary differential equations, analytical expressions for the disease-free steady state, the endemic steady state, and the basic reproduction number are derived. It is analytically shown that low vaccination rate and (...) no influx to the pro-vaccination group have similar impacts on the long-term amount of infected individuals. Numerical simulations are performed with parameter values of the COVID-19 pandemic to illustrate the analytical results. The possible relevance of this work is discussed from a public health perspective. (shrink)

Tuberculosis is caused by bacillus Mycobacterium tuberculosis. In this study, a mathematical model of tuberculosis is analyzed. The numerical behaviour of the considered model is analyzed including basic reproduction number and stability. We applied three numerical techniques to this model, i.e., nonstandard finite difference scheme, Runge–Kutta method of order 4, and forward Euler scheme. NSFD scheme preserves all the essential properties of the model. Acquired results corroborate that NSFD scheme converges for each step size. While the other (...) two schemes failed to preserve some properties of the model such as positivity and convergence. A graphical comparison presented in this study confirms the numerical stability of the NSFD technique shown here is maintained over a large area. (shrink)

In this paper, a multigroup SVIR epidemic model with reaction-diffusion and nonlinear incidence is investigated. We first establish the well-posedness of the model. Then, the basic reproduction number ℜ 0 is established and shown as a threshold: the disease-free steady state is globally asymptotically stable if ℜ 0 1. Moreover, applying the classical method of Lyapunov and a recently developed graph-theoretic approach, we established the global stability of the endemic equilibria for a special case.

Excessive use of social media is a developing concern in the twenty-first century. This issue needs to be addressed before it has any more significant consequences than what we are currently experiencing. As a preventive technique, advertisements and awareness-raising campaigns about the detrimental impact of digital technologies are used. The application of novel mathematical techniques and terminologies in this field of study will have significant potential to enhance healthy living by preventing certain ailments. This is the most compelling justification for (...) conducting a new study with the most up-to-date techniques at our disposal. This study investigates clear and concise transmission in order to generate a deterministic mathematical model of social media addiction S M A using the fractal-fractional derivative operator. Also, the analysis of the S M A model in terms of the invariant domain, the existence of a positive invariant solution, and equilibria assumptions are stated in a detailed manner. Besides that, the basic reproduction number ℝ 0 < 1 is computed, demonstrating that the proposed methodology is more efficacious. The Atangana-Baleanu FF differential operators are recently defined in FF differential operators that are applied to characterize the S M A model’s mathematical algorithm. We investigated the numerical behaviour of the S M A in three ways: changing the fractional-order α as well as the fractal-dimension ℘ ; changing α while keeping ℘ constant; and changing ℘ while keeping α constant. Our examined visualizations and simulation studies using MATLAB for the numerical modelling of the aforementioned system showed that the novel developed Atangana-Baleanu FF differential operators produce remarkable results when compared to the classical frame. (shrink)

To date, our knowledge of Rift Valley fever disease spread and maintenance is still limited, as flooding, humid weather and presence of biting insects such as mosquitoes, have not completely explained RVF outbreaks. We propose a model that includes livestock, mosquitoes and ticks compartments structured according to their questing and feeding behaviour in order to study the possible role of ticks on the dynamics of RVF. To quantify disease transmission at the initial stage of the epidemic, we derive an explicit (...) formula of the basic reproductive number, $$R_0$$ R 0. Using the concept of Metzler matrix, we state necessary conditions for global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium. Results suggest that although host-ticks interactions may serve as disease reservoirs or disease amplifiers, the Aedes reproductive number should be kept under unity if disease post-epizootics activities are to be controlled. Results of both local and global sensitivity analysis of selected model parameters indicate that $$R_0$$ R 0 is more sensitive to the ticks attachment and detachment rates, probability of transmission from ticks to host and from host to ticks, length of infection in livestock and ticks death rate. Furthermore, when comparing the mean value of $$R_0$$ R 0 with that from previous studies which did not include ticks we found that our $$R_0$$ R 0 is very much larger resulting in an increase in the exponential phase of an outbreak. These findings suggest that if ticks are capable of transmitting the virus, they may be contributing to disease outbreaks and endemicity. (shrink)

The basic reproduction ratio, R0, is a fundamental concept in epidemiology. It is defined as the total number of secondary infections brought on by a single primary infection, in a totally susceptible population. The value of R0 indicates whether a starting epidemic reaches a considerable part of the population and causes a lot of damage, or whether it remains restricted to a relatively small number of individuals. To calculate R0 one has to evaluate an integral that (...) ranges over the duration of the infection of the host. This duration is, of course, limited by remaining host longevity. So, R0 depends on remaining host longevity and in this paper we show that for long-lived hosts this aspect may not be ignored for long-lasting infections. We investigate in particular how this epidemiological measure of pathogen fitness depends on host longevity. For our analyses we adopt and combine a generic within- and between-host model from the literature. To find the optimal strategy for a pathogen from an evolutionary point of view, we focus on the indicator $$R_0^{{opt}}$$, i.e., the optimum of R0 as a function of its replication and mutation rates. These are the within-host parameters that the pathogen has at its disposal to optimize its strategy. We show that $$R_0^{{opt}}$$ is highly influenced by remaining host longevity in combination with the contact rate between hosts in a susceptible population. In addition, these two parameters determine whether a killer-like or a milker-like strategy is optimal for a given pathogen. In the killer-like strategy the pathogen has a high rate of reproduction within the host in a short time span causing a relatively short disease, whereas in the milker-like strategy the pathogen multiplies relatively slowly, producing a continuous small amount of offspring over time with a small effect on host health. The present research allows for the determination of a bifurcation line in the plane of host longevity versus contact rate that forms the boundary between the milker-like and killer-like regions. This plot shows that for short remaining host longevities the killer-like strategy is optimal, whereas for very long remaining host longevities the milker-like strategy is advantageous. For in-between values of host longevity, the contact rate determines which of both strategies is optimal. (shrink)

In this paper, a nonlinear dynamical system is proposed and qualitatively analyzed to study the dynamics and effects of HIV-malaria co-infection in the workplace. Basic reproduction numbers of sub-models are derived and are shown to have LAS disease-free equilibria when their respective basic reproduction numbers are less than unity. Conditions for existence of endemic equilibria of sub-models are also derived. Unlike the HIV-only model, the malaria-only model is shown to exhibit a backward bifurcation under certain conditions. (...) Conditions for optimal control of the co-infection are derived using the Pontryagin’s maximum principle. Numerical experimentation on the resulting optimality system is performed. Using the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, it is observed that combining preventative measures for both diseases is the best strategy for optimal control of HIV-malaria co-infection at the workplace. (shrink)

A compartmental model is described for the spread of Gambian sleeping sickness in a spatially heterogeneous environment in which vector and human populations migrate between two "patches": the village and the plantations. The number of equilibrium points depends on two "summary parameters": gr the proportion removed among human infectives, and R0, the basic reproduction number. The origin is stable for R0 1. Control strategies are assessed by studying the mix of vector control between the two patches (...) that bring R0 below 1. The results demonstrate the importance of vector control in the plantations. For example if 20 percent of flies are in the village and the blood meal rate in the village is 10 percent, then a 20 percent added vector mortality in the village must be combined with a 9 percent added mortality in the plantations in order to bring R0 below 1. The results are quite insentive to the blood meal rate in the village. Optimal strategies (that minimize the total number of flies trapped in both patches) are briefly discussed. (shrink)

Despite several research on HIV/aids, it is still incumbent to investigate more effective control measures to mitigate its infection level. Therefore, we introduce an HIV/aids-resistant model with behavior change and study its basic properties. In order to determine the most sensitive parameters that are responsible for disease transmission with respect to the basic reproduction number and those responsible for disease prevalence with respect to the endemic equilibrium, the sensitivity analysis was established and it was confirmed that (...) the influx rate of people into the infected population and total abstinence from all risk practices and endemic areas are some of the most sensitive parameters for disease spread and disease eradication, respectively. Furthermore, by considering controls u1\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$u_1$$\end{document} denoting the government’s intervention in promoting and encouraging behavior change, u2\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$u_2$$\end{document} representing intake of balanced nutritional supplementation, and u3\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$u_3$$\end{document} connoting antiretroviral therapy (ART), an optimal control problem was developed and analyzed. Before the establishment of the necessary conditions of the optimal control using Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle, we proved the existence of the optimal control triplet (u1(t),u2(t),u3(t)∈Φ,\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$(u_1(t),u_2(t),u_3(t)\in \Phi,$$\end{document} where Φ\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\Phi$$\end{document} is the control set at time t,) which has been neglected by many researchers in recent years. Using the Runge–Kutta scheme, the optimal control problem was solved to understand the best combination of control strategies. Using the demographic and epidemiological data for South Africa on HIV/aids, a numerical simulation was carried out and results are presented on 3D surface plots. The obtained results suggested that the combination of all the considered control measures is the best method to ensure disease eradication. (shrink)

An additional compartment of vaccinated individuals is considered in a SIS stochastic epidemic model with infection reintroduction. The quantification of the spread of the disease is modeled by a continuous time Markov chain. A well-known measure of the initial transmission potential is the basic reproduction number $$R_0$$, which determines the herd immunity threshold or the critical proportion of immune individuals required to stop the spread of a disease when a vaccine offers a complete protection. Due to repeated (...) contacts between the typical infective and previously infected individuals, $$R_0$$ overestimates the average number of secondary infections and leads to, perhaps unnecessary, high immunization coverage. Assuming that the vaccine is imperfect, alternative measures to $$R_0$$ are defined in order to study the influence of the initial coverage and vaccine efficacy on the transmission of the epidemic. (shrink)

Coronavirus disease cases and COVID-19-related deaths have been increasing worldwide since the outbreak in 2019. Before the mass vaccination campaign for COVID-19, the main methods for COVID-19 control in China were mass testing and quarantine. Based on the transmission mechanism of COVID-19, we constructed a dynamic model for COVID-19 transmission in two typical regions: Beijing and Xinjiang. We calculated the basic reproduction number R 0, proved the global stability of COVID-19 transmission via the Lyapunov function technique, and (...) introduced the final size. We assessed the effectiveness of mass testing and quarantine. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the more the people were tested per day, the larger is the quarantine proportionality coefficient, the earlier the source location was determined, and the better is the controlling effect. In addition, it was more effective to increase the coefficient of quarantine if the population density in the region was low. To eliminate the pandemic, the government has to expand testing and quarantine, requiring a large amount of continuous manpower, material, and financial resources. Therefore, new control measures should be developed. (shrink)

In this paper, we revisit a host–parasite system with multiple parasite strains and superinfection proposed by Nowak and May :81–89, 1994), and study its global dynamics when we relax the two strict conditions assumed therein. As for system with two parasite strains, we derive that the basic reproduction number $$R_0$$ is the threshold condition for parasite extinction and the invasion reproduction number $$R_i^j\ $$ is the subthreshold condition for coexistence of two parasite strains. As for (...) system with three parasite strains, we are surprised to discover the global stability of parasite-free and coexistence equilibrium, which is distinct from the previous result. Furthermore, for system with n strains, we obtain the global asymptotical stability of the parasite-free equilibrium, conjecture a general result on the global stability of coexistence equilibrium and provide two numerical examples to testify our conjecture. (shrink)

A two strain HIV/AIDS model with treatment which allows AIDS patients with sensitive HIV-strain to undergo amelioration is presented as a system of non-linear ordinary differential equations. The disease-free equilibrium is shown to be globally asymptotically stable when the associated epidemic threshold known as the basic reproduction number for the model is less than unity. The centre manifold theory is used to show that the sensitive HIV-strain only and resistant HIV-strain only endemic equilibria are locally asymptotically stable (...) when the associated reproduction numbers are greater than unity. Qualitative analysis of the model including positivity, boundedness and persistence of solutions are presented. The model is numerically analysed to assess the effects of treatment with amelioration on the dynamics of a two strain HIV/AIDS model. Numerical simulations of the model show that the two strains co-exist whenever the reproduction numbers exceed unity. Further, treatment with amelioration may result in an increase in the total number of infective individuals (asymptomatic) but results in a decrease in the number of AIDS patients. Further, analysis of the reproduction numbers show that antiretroviral resistance increases with increase in antiretroviral use. (shrink)

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in more than 524 million cases and 6 million deaths worldwide. Various drug interventions targeting multiple stages of COVID-19 pathogenesis can significantly reduce infection-related mortality. The current within-host mathematical modeling study addresses the optimal drug regimen and efficacy of combination therapies in the treatment of COVID-19. The drugs/interventions considered include Arbidol, Remdesivir, Interferon and Lopinavir/ritonavir. It is concluded that these drugs, when administered singly or in combination, reduce the number of infected cells and viral (...) load. Four scenarios dealing with the administration of a single drug, two drugs, three drugs and all four are discussed. In all these scenarios, the optimal drug regimen is proposed based on two methods. In the first method, these medical interventions are modeled as control interventions and a corresponding objective function and optimal control problem are formulated. In this framework, the optimal drug regimen is derived. Later, using the comparative effectiveness method, the optimal drug regimen is derived based on the basic reproduction number and viral load. The average number of infected cells and viral load decreased the most when all four drugs were used together. On the other hand, the average number of susceptible cells decreased the most when Arbidol was administered alone. The basic reproduction number and viral load decreased the most when all four interventions were used together, confirming the previously obtained finding of the optimal control problem. The results of this study can help physicians make decisions about the treatment of the life-threatening COVID-19 infection. (shrink)

Tuberculosis has continued to retain its title as “the captain among these men of death”. This is evident as it is the leading cause of death globally from a single infectious agent. TB as it is fondly called has become a major threat to the achievement of the sustainable development goals (SDG) and hence require inputs from different research disciplines. This work presents a mathematical model of tuberculosis. A compartmental model of seven classes was used in the model formulation comprising (...) of the susceptible S, vaccinated V, exposed E, undiagnosed infectious I1, diagnosed infectious I2, treated T and recovered R. The stability analysis of the model was established as well as the condition for the model to undergo backward bifurcation. With the existence of backward bifurcation, keeping the basic reproduction number less than unity $$({R_{0}}<1)$$ is no more sufficient to keep TB out of the community. Hence, it is shown by the analysis that vaccination program, diagnosis and treatment helps to control the TB dynamics. In furtherance to that, it is shown that preference should be given to diagnosis over treatment as diagnosis precedes treatment. It is as well shown that at lower vaccination rate (0–20%), TB would still be endemic in the population. As such, high vaccination rate is required to send TB out of the community. (shrink)

A modified version of the SEIR model with the effects of vaccination and inter-state movement is proposed to simulate the spread of COVID-19 in Malaysia. A mathematical analysis of the proposed model was performed to derive the basic reproduction number. To enhance the model’s forecasting capabilities, the model parameters were estimated using the Nelder–Mead simplex method by fitting the model outputs to the observed data. Our results showed a good fit between the model outputs and available data, (...) where the model was then able to perform short-term predictions. In line with the rapid vaccination program, our model predicted that the COVID-19 cases in the country would decrease by the end of August. Furthermore, our findings indicated that relaxing travel restrictions from a highly vaccinated region to a low vaccinated region would result in an epidemic outbreak. (shrink)

The occurrence of a new strain of SARS-CoV-2 cannot be ruled out. Therefore, this study seeks to investigate the possible effects of a hypothetical imperfect anti-COVID-19 vaccine on the control of not only the first variant of SARS-CoV-2 but also the second variant of SARS-CoV-2. We further examine the rates and a, escape of quarantined infectious individuals from isolation centers. The control R c and basic reproduction numbers R 0 are computed which gives assess to obtain asymptotic stability (...) of disease-free equilibrium point globally and the existence of a unique persistent equilibrium solution. Numerical results reveal that people infected with the second strain who are vaccinated with an imperfect vaccine are under control but the prevalence of the second variant enhances the prevalence of the first variant. Thus, discovering a vaccine that is effective for the prevention of variant 2 is necessary for the control of COVID-19. Numerical results also reveal that increase in the rate at which individuals infected with the first variant escape the isolation center gives rise to the population infected with the first variant and lowers the peak of the population infected with the second variant. This is probably because individuals infected with the second variant appear to be more careful with their lives and get vaccinated more than individuals infected with the first variant. (shrink)

This paper describes a traditional SIR type epidemic model with saturated infection rate and treatment function. The dynamics of the model is studied from the point of view of stability and bifurcation. Basic reproduction number is obtained and it is shown that the model system may possess a backward bifurcation. The global asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibrium is studied with the help of a geometric approach. Optimal control problem is formulated and solved. Some numerical simulation works (...) are carried out to validate our analytical results. (shrink)

To mitigate the spread of schistosomiasis, a deterministic human-bovine mathematical model of its transmission dynamics accounting for contaminated water reservoirs, including treatment of bovines and humans and mollusciciding is formulated and theoretically analyzed. The disease-free equilibrium is locally and globally asymptotically stable whenever the basic reproduction number R0<1\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$R_0<1$$\end{document}, while global stability of the endemic equilibrium is investigated by constructing a suitable Lyapunov function. To support the analytical results, parameter (...) values from published literature are used for numerical simulations and where applicable, uncertainty analysis on the non-dimensional system parameters is performed using the Latin Hypercube Sampling and Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient techniques. Sensitivity analysis to determine the relative importance of model parameters to disease transmission shows that the environment-related parameters namely, εs\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\varepsilon _s$$\end{document} (snails shedding rate of cercariae), ps\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$p_s$$\end{document} (probability that cercariae shed by snails survive), c (fraction of the contaminated environment sprayed by molluscicides) and μc\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\mu _c$$\end{document} (mortality rate of cercariae) are the most significant to mitigate the spread of schistosomiasis. Mollusciciding, which directly impacts the contaminated environment as a single control strategy is more effective compared to treatment. However, concurrently applying mollusciciding and treatment will yield a better outcome. (shrink)

Schistosomiasis, a vector-borne chronically debilitating infectious disease, is a serious public health concern for humans and animals in the affected tropical and sub-tropical regions. We formulate and theoretically analyze a deterministic mathematical model with snail and bovine hosts. The basic reproduction number R0\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$R_0$$\end{document} is computed and used to investigate the local stability of the model’s steady states. Global stability of the endemic equilibrium is carried out by constructing a (...) suitable Lyapunov function. Sensitivity analysis shows that the basic reproduction number is most sensitive to the model parameters related to the contaminated environment, namely: shedding rate of cercariae by snails, cercariae to miracidia survival probability, snails-miracidia effective contact rate and natural death rate of miracidia and cercariae. Numerical results show that when no intervention measures are implemented, there is an increase of the infected classes, and a rapid decline of the number of susceptible and exposed bovines and snails. Effects of the variation of some of the key sensitive model parameters on the schistosomiasis dynamics as well as on the initial disease transmission threshold parameter R0\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$R_0$$\end{document} are graphically depicted. (shrink)

Modelling of contagious disease usually employs compartmental SEIR-like models where the waiting times in respective compartments are exponentially distributed. In this paper, we are interested in investigating how the distributions of sojourn times in infective compartments affect the dynamics and persistence of the contagious bovine pleuropneumonia, a chronic respiratory disease of cattle. Two kinds of extreme distributions of the sojourn times are considered: a Dirac delta-function and truncated Gaussian function leading to a model with (non-constant) delay and the classical exponential (...) distribution that stands for a model without delay. Expressions of the basic reproductive numbers are derived and dynamical behaviours are discussed for the three models. It is found that the spreading of disease exhibits wave-like oscillations for the time-delay dynamics. In contrast, the disease appears to last longer when the spreading is described by the classical dynamics without delay. Subsequently, the time-delay dynamics turns out to be more appropriate for the description of an experimental epidemic of CBPP. (shrink)

The susceptible-transmissible-removed (STR) model is a deterministic compartment model, based on the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) prototype. The STR replaces 2 SIR assumptions. SIR assumes that the emigration rate (due to death or recovery) is directly proportional to the infected compartment’s size. The STR replaces this assumption with the biologically appropriate assumption that the emigration rate is the same as the immigration rate one infected period ago. This results in a unique delay differential equation epidemic model with the delay equal to the (...) infected period. Hamer’s mass action law for epidemiology is modified to resemble its chemistry precursor—the law of mass action. Constructing the model for an isolated population that exists on a surface bounded by the extent of the population’s movements permits compartment density to replace compartment size. The STR reduces to a SIR model in a timescale that negates the delay—the transmissible timescale. This establishes that the SIR model applies to an isolated population in the disease’s transmissible timescale. Cyclical social interactions will define a rhythmic timescale. It is demonstrated that the geometric mean maps transmissible timescale properties to their rhythmic timescale equivalents. This mapping defines the hybrid incidence (HI). The model validation demonstrates that the HI-STR can be constructed directly from the disease’s transmission dynamics. The basic reproduction number (R0\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\mathcal{R}}_0$$\end{document}) is an epidemic impact property. The HI-STR model predicts that R0∝ρnB\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\mathcal{R}}_0 \propto \root \mathfrak{B} \of {\rho_n}$$\end{document} where ρn\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\rho_n$$\end{document} is the population density, and B\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\mathfrak{B}}$$\end{document} is the ratio of time increments in the transmissible- and rhythmic timescales. The model is validated by experimentally verifying the relationship. R0\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\mathcal{R}}_0$$\end{document}’s dependence on ρn\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\rho_n$$\end{document} is demonstrated for droplet-spread SARS in Asian cities, aerosol-spread measles in Europe and non-airborne Ebola in Africa. (shrink)

We investigate and analyze the dynamics of hepatitis B with various infection phases and multiple routes of transmission. We formulate the model and then fractionalize it using the concept of fractional calculus. For the purpose of fractionalizing, we use the Caputo–Fabrizio operator. Once we develop the model under consideration, existence and uniqueness analysis will be discussed. We use fixed point theory for the existence and uniqueness analysis. We also prove that the model under consideration possesses a bounded and positive solution. (...) We then find the basic reproductive number to perform the steady-state analysis and to show that the fractional-order epidemiological model is locally and globally asymptotically stable under certain conditions. For the local and global analysis, we use linearization, mean value theorem, and fractional Barbalat’s lemma, respectively. Finally, we perform some numerical findings to support the analytical work with the help of graphical representations. (shrink)

A nonlinear differential equation model is proposed to study the dynamics of HIV/AIDS and its effects on workforce productivity. The disease-free equilibrium point of the model is shown to be locally asymptotically stable when the associated basic reproduction number $$\mathcal{{R}}_{0}$$ is less than unity. The model is also shown to exhibit multiple endemic states for some parameter values when $$\mathcal{{R}}_{0} 1$$. Global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium is guaranteed only when the fractions of the Susceptible subclass (...) populations are within some bounds. Optimal control analysis of the model revealed that the most cost effective strategy that should be adopted in the fight against HIV/AIDS spread within the workforce is one that seeks to prevent infections and the treatment of infected individuals. (shrink)

This manuscript considers the transmission dynamics of lymphatic filariasis with some intervention strategies in place. Unlike previously developed models, our model takes into account both the exposed and infected classes in both the human and mosquito populations, respectively. We also consider vaccinated, treated and recovered humans in the presented model. The global dynamics of the proposed model are completely determined by the basic and effective reproduction numbers. We then use Lyapunov function theory to find the sufficient conditions for (...) global stability of both the disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium. The Lyapunov functions show that when the basic reproduction number is less than or equal to unity, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, and when it is greater than unity then the endemic equilibrium is also globally asymptotically stable. Finally, numerical simulations are carried out to investigate the effects of the intervention strategies and key parameters to the spread of lymphatic filariasis. The numerical simulations support the analytical results and illustrate possible model behavioral scenarios. (shrink)

We prove almost sure exponential stability for the disease-free equilibrium of a stochastic differential equations model of an SIR epidemic with vaccination. The model allows for vertical transmission. The stochastic perturbation is associated with the force of infection and is such that the total population size remains constant in time. We prove almost sure positivity of solutions. The main result concerns especially the smaller values of the diffusion parameter, and describes the stability in terms of an analogue $$\mathcal{R}_\sigma$$ of the (...) basic reproduction number $$\mathcal{R}_0$$ of the underlying deterministic model, with $$\mathcal{R}_\sigma \le \mathcal{R}_0$$. We prove that the disease-free equilibrium is almost sure exponentially stable if $$\mathcal{R}_\sigma <1$$. (shrink)

The paper undertakes three interdisciplinary tasks. The first one consists in constructing a formal model of the basic arithmetic competence, that is, the competence sufficient for solving simple arithmetic story-tasks which do not require any mathematical mastery knowledge about laws, definitions and theorems. The second task is to present a generalized arithmetic theory, called the arithmetic of indexed numbers (INA). All models of the development of counting abilities presuppose the common assumption that our simple, folk arithmetic encoded linguistically in (...) the mind is based on the linear number representation. This classical conception is rejected and a competitive hypothesis is formulated according to which the basic mature representational system of cognitive arithmetic is a structure composed of many numerical axes which possess a common constituent, namely, the numeral zero. Arithmetic of indexed numbers is just a formal tool for modelling the basic mature arithmetic competence. The third task is to develop a standpoint called temporal pluralism, which is motivated by neo-Kantian philosophy of arithmetic. (shrink)

Herpes simplex virus type 2 is the most prevalent sexually transmitted infection in the world, despite the availability of effective anti-viral treatments. A mathematical model to explore the association between gender and HSV-2 treatment adherence is developed. Threshold parameters are determined and stabilities analyzed. Sensitivity analysis of the reproduction number and the numerical simulations suggest that treatment adherence for both females and males are equally important in keeping the reproduction as low as possible. The basic model (...) is then extended to incorporate time-dependent intervention strategies. The Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle is used to characterize the optimal level of the controls, and the resulting optimality system is solved numerically. (shrink)

An overview of what Frege accomplishes in Part II of Grundgesetze, which contains proofs of axioms for arithmetic and several additional results concerning the finite, the infinite, and the relationship between these notions. One might think of this paper as an extremely compressed form of Part II of my book Reading Frege's Grundgesetze.

How can we acquire a grasp of cardinal numbers, even the first very small positive cardinal numbers, given that they are abstract mathematical entities? That problem of cognitive access is the main focus of this paper. All the major rival views about the nature and existence of cardinal numbers face difficulties; and the view most consonant with our normal thought and talk about numbers, the view that cardinal numbers are sizes of sets, runs into the cognitive access problem. The source (...) of the problem is the plausible assumption that cognitive access to something requires causal contact with it. It is argued that this assumption is in fact wrong, and that in this and similar cases we should accept that a certain recognise-and-distinguish capacity is sufficient for cognitive access. We can then go on to solve the cognitive access problem, and thereby support the set-size view of cardinal numbers, by paying attention to empirical findings about basic number abilities. To this end some selected studies of infants, pre-school children and a trained chimpanzee are briefly discussed. (shrink)

A history of the construction of number has been in line with the process of recognition about the properties of geometry. Natural number representing countability is exhibited on a straight line and the completeness of real number is also originated from the continuous property of the number line. Complex number on a plane off the number line is established and thereafter, the whole number system is completed. When the process of constructing a (...) class='Hi'>number with geometric features is investigated from different perspectives, it provides a new insight into the fundamental principle of number, which leads to a novel methodology in mathematics. (shrink)

Rips et al.'s arguments for rejecting basic number representations as a precursor of the natural number system are exclusively based on analog number coding. We argue that these arguments do not apply to place coding, a type of basic number representation that is not considered by Rips et al.

The first complete English translation of a groundbreaking work. An ambitious account of the relation of mathematics to logic. Includes a foreword by Crispin Wright, translators' Introduction, and an appendix on Frege's logic by Roy T. Cook. The German philosopher and mathematician Gottlob Frege (1848-1925) was the father of analytic philosophy and to all intents and purposes the inventor of modern logic. Basic Laws of Arithmetic, originally published in German in two volumes (1893, 1903), is Freges magnum opus. It (...) was to be the pinnacle of Freges lifes work. It represents the final stage of his logicist project the idea that arithmetic and analysis are reducible to logic and contains his mature philosophy of mathematics and logic. The aim of Basic Laws of Arithmetic is to demonstrate the logical nature of mathematical theorems by providing gapless proofs in Frege's formal system using only basic laws of logic, logical inference, and explicit definitions. The work contains a philosophical foreword, an introduction to Frege's logic, a derivation of arithmetic from this logic, a critique of contemporary approaches to the real numbers, and the beginnings of a logicist treatment of real analysis. As is well-known, a letter received from Bertrand Russell shortly before the publication of the second volume made Frege realise that his basic law V, governing the identity of value-ranges, leads into inconsistency. Frege discusses a revision to basic law V written in response to Russells letter in an afterword to volume II. The continuing importance of Basic Laws of Arithmetic lies not only in its bearing on issues in the foundations of mathematics and logic but in its model of philosophical inquiry. Frege's ability to locate the essential questions, his integration of logical and philosophical analysis, and his rigorous approach to criticism and argument in general are vividly in evidence in this, his most ambitious work. Philip Ebert and Marcus Rossberg present the first full English translation of both volumes of Freges major work preserving the original formalism and pagination. The edition contains a foreword by Crispin Wright and an extensive appendix providing an introduction to Frege's formal system by Roy T. Cook. Readership: Scholars and advanced students in philosophy of logic, philosophy of mathematics, and early analytic philosophy. (shrink)