1. The Evidentialist's Wager.William MacAskill, Aron Vallinder, Caspar Oesterheld, Carl Shulman & Johannes Treutlein - 2021 - Journal of Philosophy 118 (6):320-342.
    Suppose that an altruistic agent who is uncertain between evidential and causal decision theory finds herself in a situation where these theories give conflicting verdicts. We argue that even if she has significantly higher credence in CDT, she should nevertheless act in accordance with EDT. First, we claim that the appropriate response to normative uncertainty is to hedge one's bets. That is, if the stakes are much higher on one theory than another, and the credences you assign to each of (...)
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    Racing to the Precipice: A Model of Artificial Intelligence Development.Stuart Armstrong, Nick Bostrom & Carl Shulman - 2016 - AI and Society 31 (2):201-206.
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    How Hard is Artificial Intelligence? Evolutionary Arguments and Selection Effects.Carl Shulman & Nick Bostrom - 2012 - Journal of Consciousness Studies 19 (7-8):7-8.
    Several authors have made the argument that because blind evolutionary processes produced human intelligence on Earth, it should be feasible for clever human engineers to create human-level artificial intelligence in the not-too-distant future. This evolutionary argument, however, has ignored the observation selection effect that guarantees that observers will see intelligent life having arisen on their planet no matter how hard it is for intelligent life to evolve on any given Earth-like planet. We explore how the evolutionary argument might be salvaged (...)
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  4. How Hard is Artificial Intelligence? The Evolutionary Argument and Observation Selection Effects.Carl Shulman & B. Nick - forthcoming - Journal of Consciousness Studies.