Results for 'Climate models'

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  1. Climate Models, Calibration, and Confirmation.Katie Steele & Charlotte Werndl - 2013 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 64 (3):609-635.
    We argue that concerns about double-counting—using the same evidence both to calibrate or tune climate models and also to confirm or verify that the models are adequate—deserve more careful scrutiny in climate modelling circles. It is widely held that double-counting is bad and that separate data must be used for calibration and confirmation. We show that this is far from obviously true, and that climate scientists may be confusing their targets. Our analysis turns on a (...)
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  2. Confirmation and Robustness of Climate Models.Elisabeth A. Lloyd - 2010 - Philosophy of Science 77 (5):971–984.
    Recent philosophical attention to climate models has highlighted their weaknesses and uncertainties. Here I address the ways that models gain support through observational data. I review examples of model fit, variety of evidence, and independent support for aspects of the models, contrasting my analysis with that of other philosophers. I also investigate model robustness, which often emerges when comparing climate models simulating the same time period or set of conditions. Starting from Michael Weisberg’s analysis (...)
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  3.  50
    The Role of 'Complex' Empiricism in the Debates About Satellite Data and Climate Models.Elisabeth Lloyd - 2012 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 43 (2):390-401.
    climate scientists have been engaged in a decades-long debate over the standing of satellite measurements of the temperature trends of the atmosphere above the surface of the earth. This is especially significant because skeptics of global warming and the greenhouse effect have utilized this debate to spread doubt about global climate models used to predict future states of climate. I use this case from an under-studied science to illustrate two distinct philosophical approaches to the relation among (...)
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  4.  19
    The Role of Climate Models in Adaptation Decision-Making: The Case of the UK Climate Projections 2009.Liam James Heaphy - 2015 - European Journal for Philosophy of Science 5 (2):233-257.
    When attendant to the agency of models and the general context in which they perform, climate models can be seen as instrumental policy tools that may be evaluated in terms of their adequacy for purpose. In contrast, when analysed independently of their real-world usage for informing decision-making, the tendency can be to prioritise their representative role rather than their instrumental role. This paper takes as a case study the development of the UK Climate Projections 2009 in (...)
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  5.  84
    Intrinsic Ethics Regarding Integrated Assessment Models for Climate Management.Erich Schienke, Seth Baum, Nancy Tuana, Kenneth Davis & Klaus Keller - 2011 - Science and Engineering Ethics 17 (3):503-523.
    In this essay we develop and argue for the adoption of a more comprehensive model of research ethics than is included within current conceptions of responsible conduct of research (RCR). We argue that our model, which we label the ethical dimensions of scientific research (EDSR), is a more comprehensive approach to encouraging ethically responsible scientific research compared to the currently typically adopted approach in RCR training. This essay focuses on developing a pedagogical approach that enables scientists to better understand and (...)
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  6.  36
    Modeling Climate Policies: A Critical Look at Integrated Assessment Models.Mathias Frisch - 2013 - Philosophy and Technology 26 (2):117-137.
    Climate change presents us with a problem of intergenerational justice. While any costs associated with climate change mitigation measures will have to be borne by the world’s present generation, the main beneficiaries of mitigation measures will be future generations. This raises the question to what extent present generations have a responsibility to shoulder these costs. One influential approach for addressing this question is to appeal to neo-classical economic cost–benefit analyses and so-called economy-climate “integrated assessment models” to (...)
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  7.  49
    Are Climate Models Credible Worlds? Prospects and Limitations of Possibilistic Climate Prediction.Gregor Betz - 2015 - European Journal for Philosophy of Science 5 (2):191-215.
    Climate models don’t give us probabilistic forecasts. To interpret their results, alternatively, as serious possibilities seems problematic inasmuch as climate models rely on contrary-to-fact assumptions: why should we consider their implications as possible if their assumptions are known to be false? The paper explores a way to address this possibilistic challenge. It introduces the concepts of a perfect and of an imperfect credible world, and discusses whether climate models can be interpreted as imperfect credible (...)
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  8. When Climate Models Agree: The Significance of Robust Model Predictions.Wendy S. Parker - 2011 - Philosophy of Science 78 (4):579-600.
    This article identifies conditions under which robust predictive modeling results have special epistemic significance---related to truth, confidence, and security---and considers whether those conditions hold in the context of present-day climate modeling. The findings are disappointing. When today’s climate models agree that an interesting hypothesis about future climate change is true, it cannot be inferred---via the arguments considered here anyway---that the hypothesis is likely to be true or that scientists’ confidence in the hypothesis should be significantly increased (...)
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  9. Hybrid Models, Climate Models, and Inference to the Best Explanation.Joel Katzav - 2013 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 64 (1):107-129.
    I examine the warrants we have in light of the empirical successes of a kind of model I call ‘ hybrid models ’, a kind that includes climate models among its members. I argue that these warrants ’ strengths depend on inferential virtues that are not just explanatory virtues, contrary to what would be the case if inference to the best explanation provided the warrants. I also argue that the warrants in question, unlike those IBE provides, guide (...)
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  10. Varieties of Support and Confirmation of Climate Models.Elisabeth A. Lloyd - 2009 - Aristotelian Society Supplementary Volume 83 (1):213-232.
    Today's climate models are supported in a couple of ways that receive little attention from philosophers or climate scientists. In addition to standard 'model fit', wherein a model's simulation is compared to observational data, there is an additional type of confirmation available through the variety of instances of model fit. When a model performs well at fitting first one variable and then another, the probability of the model under some standard confirmation function, say, likelihood, goes up more (...)
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  11.  55
    The Epistemology of Climate Models and Some of its Implications for Climate Science and the Philosophy of Science.Joel Katzav - 2014 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 46 (2):228-238.
    I bring out the limitations of four important views of what the target of useful climate model assessment is. Three of these views are drawn from philosophy. They include the views of Elisabeth Lloyd and Wendy Parker, and an application of Bayesian confirmation theory. The fourth view I criticise is based on the actual practice of climate model assessment. In bringing out the limitations of these four views, I argue that an approach to climate model assessment that (...)
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  12.  44
    The Myopia of Imperfect Climate Models: The Case of UKCP09.Roman Frigg, Leonard A. Smith & David A. Stainforth - 2013 - Philosophy of Science 80 (5):886-897.
    The United Kingdom Climate Impacts Program’s UKCP09 project makes high-resolution forecasts of climate during the 21st century using state of the art global climate models. The aim of this paper is to introduce and analyze the methodology used and then urge some caution. Given the acknowledged systematic errors in all current climate models, treating model outputs as decision relevant probabilistic forecasts can be seriously misleading. This casts doubt on our ability, today, to make trustworthy, (...)
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  13.  36
    Climate Models, Confirmation and Calibration.Charlotte Werndl & Katie Siobhan Steele - 2013 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 64 (3).
    We argue that concerns about double-counting -- using the same evidence both to calibrate or tune climate models and also to confirm or verify that the models are adequate --deserve more careful scrutiny in climate modelling circles. It is widely held that double-counting is bad and that separate data must be used for calibration and confirmation. We show that this is far from obviously true, and that climate scientists may be confusing their targets. Our analysis (...)
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  14.  83
    Values and Uncertainties in the Predictions of Global Climate Models.Eric Winsberg - 2012 - Kennedy Institute of Ethics Journal 22 (2):111-137.
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  15. Climate Models and Their Evaluation.S. Bony, R. Colman & T. Fichefet - 2007 - In S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor & H. L. Miller (eds.), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. pp. 623--624.
     
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  16.  16
    I—Elisabeth A. Lloyd: Varieties of Support and Confirmation of Climate Models.Elisabeth A. Lloyd - 2009 - Aristotelian Society Supplementary Volume 83 (1):213-232.
  17.  15
    Adaptation to Global Warming: Do Climate Models Tell Us What We Need to Know?Naomi Oreskes, David A. Stainforth & Leonard A. Smith - 2010 - Philosophy of Science 77 (5):1012-1028.
  18.  7
    Paraconsistency, Pluralistic Models and Reasoning in Climate Science.Bryson Brown - 2018 - Humana Mente 10 (32).
    Scientific inquiry is typically focused on particular questions about particular objects and properties. This leads to a multiplicity of models which, even when they draw on a single, consistent body of concepts and principles, often employ different methods and assumptions to model different systems. Pluralists have remarked on how scientists draw on different assumptions to model different systems, different aspects of systems and systems under different conditions and defended the value of distinct, incompatible models within science at any (...)
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  19.  18
    Introduction to Assessing Climate Models: Knowledge, Values and Policy.Joel Katzav & Wendy Parker - 2015 - European Journal for Philosophy of Science 5 (2):141-148.
  20.  6
    The Role of Type and Source of Uncertainty on the Processing of Climate Models Projections.Daniel M. Benjamin & David V. Budescu - 2018 - Frontiers in Psychology 9.
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  21. Paraconsistency, Pluralistic Models and Reasoning in Climate Science.Bryson Brown - 2017 - Humana Mente 32:179-194.
    Scientific inquiry is typically focused on particular questions about particular objects and properties. This leads to a multiplicity of models which, even when they draw on a single, consistent body of concepts and principles, often employ different methods and assumptions to model different systems. Pluralists have remarked on how scientists draw on different assumptions to model different systems, different aspects of systems and systems under different conditions and defended the value of distinct, incompatible models within science at any (...)
     
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  22.  7
    Informing Public Perceptions About Climate Change: A ‘Mental Models’ Approach.Gabrielle Wong-Parodi & Wändi Bruine de Bruin - 2017 - Science and Engineering Ethics 23 (5):1369-1386.
    As the specter of climate change looms on the horizon, people will face complex decisions about whether to support climate change policies and how to cope with climate change impacts on their lives. Without some grasp of the relevant science, they may find it hard to make informed decisions. Climate experts therefore face the ethical need to effectively communicate to non-expert audiences. Unfortunately, climate experts may inadvertently violate the maxims of effective communication, which require sharing (...)
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  23.  36
    Climate Justice: High‐Status Ingroup Social Models Increase Pro‐Environmental Action Through Making Actions Seem More Moral.Joseph Sweetman & Lorraine E. Whitmarsh - 2016 - Topics in Cognitive Science 8 (1):196-221.
    Recent work has suggested that our cognitive biases and moral psychology may pose significant barriers to tackling climate change. Here, we report evidence that through status and group-based social influence processes, and our moral sense of justice, it may be possible to employ such characteristics of the human mind in efforts to engender pro-environmental action. We draw on applied work demonstrating the efficacy of social modeling techniques in order to examine the indirect effects of social model status and group (...)
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  24.  58
    Intrinsic Ethics Regarding Integrated Assessment Models for Climate Management.Erich W. Schienke, Seth D. Baum, Nancy Tuana Kenneth & J. Davis Klaus Keller - 2011 - Science and Engineering Ethics 17 (3):503-523.
    In this essay we develop and argue for the adoption of a more comprehensive model of research ethics than is included within current conceptions of responsible conduct of research (RCR). We argue that our model, which we label the ethical dimensions of scientific research (EDSR), is a more comprehensive approach to encouraging ethically responsible scientific research compared to the currently typically adopted approach in RCR training. This essay focuses on developing a pedagogical approach that enables scientists to better understand and (...)
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  25.  26
    The Importance of Context: The Ethical Work Climate Construct and Models of Ethical Decision Making -- An Agenda for Research. [REVIEW]David C. Wyld & Coy A. Jones - 1997 - Journal of Business Ethics 16 (4):465-472.
    This paper examines the role which organizational context factors play in individual ethical decision making. Two general propositions are set forth, examining the linkage between ethical work climate and decision making. An agenda for research and the potential implications of the study and practice of managerial ethics are then discussed.
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  26.  10
    Computer Models and the Evidence of Anthropogenic Climate Change: An Epistemology of Variety-of-Evidence Inferences and Robustness Analysis.Martin A. Vezér - 2016 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 56:95-102.
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  27. Model Robustness as a Confirmatory Virtue: The Case of Climate Science.Elisabeth A. Lloyd - 2015 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 49:58-68.
    I propose a distinct type of robustness, which I suggest can support a confirmatory role in scientific reasoning, contrary to the usual philosophical claims. In model robustness, repeated production of the empirically successful model prediction or retrodiction against a background of independentlysupported and varying model constructions, within a group of models containing a shared causal factor, may suggest how confident we can be in the causal factor and predictions/retrodictions, especially once supported by a variety of evidence framework. I present (...)
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  28.  39
    Whose Probabilities? Predicting Climate Change with Ensembles of Models.Wendy S. Parker - 2010 - Philosophy of Science 77 (5):985-997.
  29.  20
    A Practical Philosophy of Complex Climate Modelling.Gavin A. Schmidt & Steven Sherwood - 2015 - European Journal for Philosophy of Science 5 (2):149-169.
    We give an overview of the practice of developing and using complex climate models, as seen from experiences in a major climate modelling center and through participation in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We discuss the construction and calibration of models; their evaluation, especially through use of out-of-sample tests; and their exploitation in multi-model ensembles to identify biases and make predictions. We stress that adequacy or utility of climate models is best assessed via their (...)
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  30.  9
    The Development of General Circulation Models of Climate.Spencer Weart - 2010 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 41 (3):208-217.
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  31.  15
    The Development of General Circulation Models of Climate.Spencer Weart - 2010 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 41 (3):208-217.
  32.  5
    Creating Agent-Based Energy Transition Management Models That Can Uncover Profitable Pathways to Climate Change Mitigation.Auke Hoekstra, Maarten Steinbuch & Geert Verbong - 2017 - Complexity:1-23.
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  33.  24
    A Vast Machine: Computer Models, Climate Data, and the Politics of Global Warming. [REVIEW]Greg Lusk - 2014 - Annals of Science 71 (2):295-298.
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  34.  11
    On Hypo-Real Models or Global Climate Change: A Challenge for the Humanities.Wendy Hui Kyong Chun - 2015 - Critical Inquiry 41 (3):675-703.
  35.  18
    Paul N. Edwards, A Vast Machine: Computer Models, Climate Data, and the Politics of Global Warming. [REVIEW]Gabriele Gramelsberger - 2012 - Minerva 50 (4):533-537.
  36.  4
    Paul N. Edwards. A Vast Machine: Computer Models, Climate Data, and the Politics of Global Warming. Xxviii + 518 Pp., Illus., Tables, Index. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 2010. $32.95. [REVIEW]Paul Erickson - 2011 - Isis 102 (3):586-587.
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  37.  83
    Understanding Pluralism in Climate Modeling.W. S. Parker - 2006 - Foundations of Science 11 (4):349-368.
    To study Earth’s climate, scientists now use a variety of computer simulation models. These models disagree in some of their assumptions about the climate system, yet they are used together as complementary resources for investigating future climatic change. This paper examines and defends this use of incompatible models. I argue that climate model pluralism results both from uncertainty concerning how to best represent the climate system and from difficulties faced in evaluating the relative (...)
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  38.  11
    Modelling and the Nation: Institutionalising Climate Prediction in the UK, 1988–92.Martin Mahony & Mike Hulme - 2016 - Minerva 54 (4):445-470.
    How climate models came to gain and exercise epistemic authority has been a key concern of recent climate change historiography. Using newly released archival materials and recently conducted interviews with key actors, we reconstruct negotiations between UK climate scientists and policymakers which led to the opening of the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in 1990. We historicize earlier arguments about the unique institutional culture of the Hadley Centre, and link this culture to broader (...)
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  39. Expert Judgment for Climate Change Adaptation.Erica Thompson, Roman Frigg & Casey Helgeson - 2016 - Philosophy of Science 83 (5):1110-1121.
    Climate change adaptation is largely a local matter, and adaptation planning can benefit from local climate change projections. Such projections are typically generated by accepting climate model outputs in a relatively uncritical way. We argue, based on the IPCC’s treatment of model outputs from the CMIP5 ensemble, that this approach is unwarranted and that subjective expert judgment should play a central role in the provision of local climate change projections intended to support decision-making.
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  40.  41
    Predictivism and Old Evidence: A Critical Look at Climate Model Tuning.Mathias Frisch - 2015 - European Journal for Philosophy of Science 5 (2):171-190.
    Many climate scientists have made claims that may suggest that evidence used in tuning or calibrating a climate model cannot be used to evaluate the model. By contrast, the philosophers Katie Steele and Charlotte Werndl have argued that, at least within the context of Bayesian confirmation theory, tuning is simply an instance of hypothesis testing. In this paper I argue for a weak predictivism and in support of a nuanced reading of climate scientists’ concerns about tuning: there (...)
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  41.  72
    Severe Testing of Climate Change Hypotheses.Joel Katzav - 2013 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 44 (4):433-441.
    I examine, from Mayo's severe testing perspective, the case found in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth report for the claim that increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations caused most of the post-1950 global warming. My examination begins to provide an alternative to standard, probabilistic assessments of OUR FAULT. It also brings out some of the limitations of variety of evidence considerations in assessing this and other hypotheses about the causes of climate change, and illuminates the epistemology (...)
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  42.  21
    Chaos, Plurality and Model Metrics in Climate Science.Gregor Betz - 2013 - In Ulrich V. Gähde & Stephan Hartmann (eds.), Models, Simulation, and the Reduction of Complexity. de Gruyter. pp. 255-264.
  43.  85
    Mathematical Models: Questions of Trustworthiness.Adam Morton - 1993 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 44 (4):659-674.
    I argue that the contrast between models and theories is important for public policy issues. I focus especially on the way a mathematical model explains just one aspect of the data.
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  44.  24
    Building Confidence in Climate Model Projections: An Analysis of Inferences From Fit.Baumberger Christoph, Knutti Reto & Hirsch Hadorn Gertrude - 2017 - Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change:1-20.
    Climate model projections are used to inform policy decisions and constitute a major focus of climate research. Confidence in climate projections relies on the adequacy of climate models for those projections. The question of how to argue for the adequacy of models for climate projections has not gotten sufficient attention in the climate modelling community. The most common way to evaluate a climate model is to assess in a quantitative way degrees (...)
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  45. An Assessment of the Foundational Assumptions in High-Resolution Climate Projections: The Case of UKCP09.Roman Frigg, Leonard A. Smith & David A. Stainforth - unknown
    The United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme’s UKCP09 project makes highresolution projections of the climate out to 2100 by post-processing the outputs of a large-scale global climate model. The aim of this paper is to describe and analyse the methodology used and then urge some caution. Given the acknowledged systematic, shared shortcomings in all current climate models, treating model outputs as decision relevant projections can be significantly misleading. In extrapolatory situations, such as projections of future (...) change impacts, there is little reason to expect that postprocessing of model outputs can correct for the consequences of such errors. This casts doubt on our ability, today, to make trustworthy, high-resolution probabilistic projections out to the end of this century. (shrink)
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  46. Objectivity and a Comparison of Methodological Scenario Approaches for Climate Change Research.Elisabeth A. Lloyd & Vanessa J. Schweizer - 2014 - Synthese 191 (10):2049-2088.
    Climate change assessments rely upon scenarios of socioeconomic developments to conceptualize alternative outcomes for global greenhouse gas emissions. These are used in conjunction with climate models to make projections of future climate. Specifically, the estimations of greenhouse gas emissions based on socioeconomic scenarios constrain climate models in their outcomes of temperatures, precipitation, etc. Traditionally, the fundamental logic of the socioeconomic scenarios—that is, the logic that makes them plausible—is developed and prioritized using methods that are (...)
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  47.  16
    Uncertainties, Plurality, and Robustness in Climate Research and Modeling: On the Reliability of Climate Prognoses.Anna Leuschner - 2015 - Journal for General Philosophy of Science / Zeitschrift für Allgemeine Wissenschaftstheorie 46 (2):367-381.
    The paper addresses the evaluation of climate models and gives an overview of epistemic uncertainties in climate modeling; the uncertainties concern the data situation as well as the causal behavior of the climate system. In order to achieve reasonable results nonetheless, multimodel ensemble studies are employed in which diverse models simulate the future climate under different emission scenarios. The models jointly deliver a robust range of climate prognoses due to a broad plurality (...)
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  48.  63
    Global Climate Modeling as Applied Science.William Goodwin - 2015 - Journal for General Philosophy of Science / Zeitschrift für Allgemeine Wissenschaftstheorie 46 (2):339-350.
    In this paper I argue that the appropriate analogy for “understanding what makes simulation results reliable” in global climate modeling is not with scientific experimentation or measurement, but—at least in the case of the use of global climate models for policy development—with the applications of science in applied design problems. The prospects for using this analogy to argue for the quantitative reliability of GCMs are assessed and compared with other potential strategies.
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  49. Lightning in a Bottle: Complexity, Chaos, and Computation in Climate Science.Jon Lawhead - 2014 - Dissertation, Columbia University
    Climatology is a paradigmatic complex systems science. Understanding the global climate involves tackling problems in physics, chemistry, economics, and many other disciplines. I argue that complex systems like the global climate are characterized by certain dynamical features that explain how those systems change over time. A complex system's dynamics are shaped by the interaction of many different components operating at many different temporal and spatial scales. Examining the multidisciplinary and holistic methods of climatology can help us better understand (...)
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  50.  69
    The Relationship Between Unethical Behavior and the Dimensions of the Ethical Climate Questionnaire.D. K. Peterson - 2002 - Journal of Business Ethics 41 (4):313 - 326.
    This study examined the relationship between unethical employee behavior and the dimensions of the Ethical Climate Questionnaire (ECQ). In order to explore the relationship between the dimensions of the ECQ and unethical behavior, the factor structure of five previously identified empirical models and the hypothesized nine-dimension model for the ECQ was tested with a confirmatory factor analysis. The analysis revealed that the hypothesized nine-dimension model provided as good or even better fit to the data than the five empirically (...)
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