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Ellery Eells [55]Ellery Thomas Eells [1]
  1. Symmetries and Asymmetries in Evidential Support.Ellery Eells & Branden Fitelson - 2002 - Philosophical Studies 107 (2):129 - 142.
    Several forms of symmetry in degrees of evidential support areconsidered. Some of these symmetries are shown not to hold in general. This has implications for the adequacy of many measures of degree ofevidential support that have been proposed and defended in the philosophical literature.
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  2. Rational Decision and Causality.Ellery Eells - 1982 - Cambridge University Press.
    In past years, the traditional Bayesian theory of rational decision making, based on subjective calculations of expected utility, has faced powerful attack from philosophers such as David Lewis and Brian Skyrms, who advance an alternative causal decision theory. The test they present for the Bayesian is exemplified in the decision problem known as 'Newcomb's paradox' and in related decision problems and is held to support the prescriptions of the causal theory. As well as his conclusions, the concepts and methods of (...)
     
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  3.  78
    Probabilistic Causality.Ellery Eells - 1991 - Cambridge University Press.
    In this important book, Ellery Eells explores and refines philosophical conceptions of probabilistic causality. In a probabilistic theory of causation, causes increase the probability of their effects rather than necessitate their effects in the ways traditional deterministic theories have specified. Philosophical interest in this subject arises from attempts to understand population sciences as well as indeterminism in physics. Taking into account issues involving spurious correlation, probabilistic causal interaction, disjunctive causal factors, and temporal ideas, Professor Eells advances the analysis of what (...)
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  4.  69
    Probabilistic Causality and the Question of Transitivity.Ellery Eells & Elliott Sober - 1983 - Philosophy of Science 50 (1):35-57.
    After clarifying the probabilistic conception of causality suggested by Good (1961-2), Suppes (1970), Cartwright (1979), and Skyrms (1980), we prove a sufficient condition for transitivity of causal chains. The bearing of these considerations on the units of selection problem in evolutionary theory and on the Newcomb paradox in decision theory is then discussed.
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  5. Measuring Confirmation and Evidence.Ellery Eells & Branden Fitelson - 2000 - Journal of Philosophy 97 (12):663-672.
  6.  9
    Probabilistic Causality.Wayne A. Davis & Ellery Eells - 1993 - Philosophical Review 102 (3):410.
  7.  81
    Probability and Conditionals: Belief Revision and Rational Decision.Ellery Eells & Brian Skyrms (eds.) - 1994 - Cambridge University Press.
    This collection of essays is on the relation between probabilities, especially conditional probabilities, and conditionals. It provides negative results which sharply limit the ways conditionals can be related to conditional probabilities. There are also positive ideas and results which will open up areas of research. The collection is intended to honour Ernest W. Adams, whose seminal work is largely responsible for creating this area of inquiry. As well as describing, evaluating, and applying Adams's work the contributions extend his ideas in (...)
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  8.  2
    Rational Decision and Causality.Ellery Eells - 1984 - Journal of Philosophy 81 (3):163-168.
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  9.  72
    Causality, Utility, and Decision.Ellery Eells - 1981 - Synthese 48 (2):295 - 329.
  10. Review: The Foundations of Causal Decision Theory, by James M. Joyce. [REVIEW]Ellery Eells - 2000 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 51 (4):893-900.
  11.  48
    Metatickles and the Dynamics of Deliberation.Ellery Eells - 1984 - Theory and Decision 17 (1):71-95.
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  12.  5
    Choices: An Introduction to Decision Theory.Ellery Eells & Michael D. Resnik - 1990 - Philosophical Review 99 (2):272.
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  13. Probabilistic Causal Interaction.Ellery Eells - 1986 - Philosophy of Science 53 (1):52-64.
    It is possible for a causal factor to raise the probability of a second factor in some situations while lowering the probability of the second factor in other situations. Must a genuine cause always raise the probability of a genuine effect of it? When it does not always do so, an "interaction" with some third factor may be the reason. I discuss causal interaction from the perspectives of Giere's counterfactual characterization of probabilistic causal connection (1979, 1980) and the "contextual unanimity" (...)
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  14.  67
    Objective Probability Theory Theory.Ellery Eells - 1983 - Synthese 57 (3):387 - 442.
    I argue that to the extent to which philosophical theories of objective probability have offered theoretically adequateconceptions of objective probability (in connection with such desiderata as causal and explanatory significance, applicability to single cases, etc.), they have failed to satisfy amethodological standard — roughly, a requirement to the effect that the conception offered be specified with the precision appropriate for a physical interpretation of an abstract formal calculus and be fully explicated in terms of concepts, objects or phenomena understood independently (...)
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  15.  68
    Comments and Criticism: Measuring Confirmation and Evidence.Ellery Eells & Branden Fitelson - 2000 - Journal of Philosophy 97 (12):663-672.
    Bayesian epistemology suggests various ways of measuring the support that a piece of evidence provides a hypothesis. Such measures are defined in terms of a subjective probability assignment, pr, over propositions entertained by an agent. The most standard measure (where “H” stands for “hypothesis” and “E” stands for “evidence”) is: the difference measure: d(H,E) = pr(H/E) - pr(H).0 This may be called a “positive (probabilistic) relevance measure” of confirmation, since, according to it, a piece of evidence E qualitatively confirms a (...)
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  16. Problems of Old Evidence.Ellery Eells - 1985 - Pacific Philosophical Quarterly 66 (3):283.
     
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  17.  61
    Common Causes and Decision Theory.Ellery Eells & Elliott Sober - 1986 - Philosophy of Science 53 (2):223-245.
    One of us (Eells 1982) has defended traditional evidential decision theory against prima facie Newcomb counterexamples by assuming that a common cause forms a conjunctive fork with its joint effects. In this paper, the evidential theory is defended without this assumption. The suggested rationale shows that the theory's assumptions are not about the nature of causality, but about the nature of rational deliberation. These presuppositions are weak enough for the argument to count as a strong justification of the evidential theory.
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  18. The Place of Probability in Science.Ellery Eells & James H. Fetzer (eds.) - 2010 - Springer.
  19.  59
    Newcomb's Many Solutions.Ellery Eells - 1984 - Theory and Decision 16 (1):59-105.
  20.  52
    Causal Decision Theory.Ellery Eells - 1984 - PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1984:177 - 200.
    After a brief presentation of evidential decision theory, causal decision theory, and Newcomb type prima facie counterexamples to the evidential theory, three kinds of "metatickle" defenses of the evidential theory are discussed. Each has its weaknesses, but one of them seems stronger than the other two. The weaknesses of the best of the three, and the intricacy of metatickle analysis, does not constitute an advantage of causal decision theory over the evidential theory, however. It is argued, by way of an (...)
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  21.  17
    Weirich on Decision Instability.Ellery Eells - 1985 - Australasian Journal of Philosophy 63 (4):473 – 478.
  22.  49
    Probabilistic Causality: Reply to John Dupré.Ellery Eells - 1987 - Philosophy of Science 54 (1):105-114.
    John Dupré (1984) has recently criticized the theory of probabilistic causality developed by, among others, Good (1961-62), Suppes (1970), Cartwright (1979), and Skyrms (1980). He argues that there is a tension or incompatibility between one of its central requirements for the presence of a causal connection, on the one hand, and a feature of the theory pointed out by Elliott Sober and me (1983), on the other. He also argues that the requirement just alluded to should be given up. I (...)
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  23. Review: Models and Reality-A Review of Brian Skyrms's Evolution of the Social Contract. [REVIEW]Martin Barrett, Ellery Eells, Branden Fitelson & Elliott Sober - 1999 - Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 59 (1):237 - 241.
    Human beings are peculiar. In laboratory experiments, they often cooperate in one-shot prisoners’ dilemmas, they frequently offer 1/2 and reject low offers in the ultimatum game, and they often bid 1/2 in the game of divide-the-cake All these behaviors are puzzling from the point of view of game theory. The first two are irrational, if utility is measured in a certain way.1 The last isn’t positively irrational, but it is no more rational than other possible actions, since there are infinitely (...)
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  24.  24
    Prediction, Probability, and Pragmatics.Ellery Eells - 2000 - Canadian Journal of Philosophy 30 (2):183-206.
  25.  68
    The Popcorn Problem: Sobel on Evidential Decision Theory and Deliberation-Probability Dynamics.Ellery Eells - 1989 - Synthese 81 (1):9 - 20.
    I defend evidential decision theory and the theory of deliberation-probability dynamics from a recent criticism advanced by Jordan Howard Sobel. I argue that his alleged counterexample to the theories, called the Popcorn Problem is not a genuine counterexample.
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  26.  25
    Learning with Detachment: Reply to Maher.Ellery Eells - 1987 - Theory and Decision 22 (2):173-180.
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  27.  9
    Objective Probability Theory Theory.Ellery Eells - 2010 - In Ellery Eells & James H. Fetzer (eds.), Synthese. Springer. pp. 3--44.
    I argue that to the extent to which philosophical theories of objective probability have offered theoretically adequate conceptions of objective probability , they have failed to satisfy a methodological standard -- roughly, a requirement to the effect that the conception offered be specified with the precision appropriate for a physical interpretation of an abstract formal calculus and be fully explicated in terms of concepts, objects or phenomena understood independently of the idea of physical probability. The significance of this, and of (...)
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  28.  30
    Cartwright and Otte on Simpson's Paradox.Ellery Eells - 1987 - Philosophy of Science 54 (2):233-243.
    Richard Otte (1985) has recently criticized the resolution of Simpson's paradox given by Nancy Cartwright (1979). He argues that there are difficulties with the version of the theory of probabilistic causality that Cartwright has developed, and that there is a way in which Simpson's paradox can arise that Cartwright's theory cannot handle. And Otte develops his own theory of probabilistic causality. I defend Cartwright's solution, and I argue that there are difficulties with the theory of probabilistic causality that Otte proposes.
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  29.  50
    Ratifiability, Game Theory, and the Principle of Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives.Ellery Eells & William L. Harper - 1991 - Australasian Journal of Philosophy 69 (1):1 – 19.
  30.  76
    On the Alleged Impossibility of Inductive Probability.Ellery Eells - 1988 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 39 (1):111-116.
    Popper and Miller argued, in a 1983 paper, that there is no such thing as 'probabilistic inductive support' of hypotheses. They show how to divide a hypothesis into two "parts," where evidence only 'probabilistically supports' the "part" that the evidence 'deductively' implies, and 'probabilistically countersupports' the "rest" of the hypothesis. I argue that by distinguishing between 'support that is purely deductive in nature' and 'support of a deductively implied hypothesis', we can see that their argument fails to establish (in any (...)
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  31.  18
    Cartwright on Probabilistic Causality: Types, Tokens, and CapacitiesNature's Capacities and Their Measurement. [REVIEW]Ellery Eells - 1995 - Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 55 (1):169-175.
  32.  1
    Probability and Conditionals: Belief Revision and Rational Decision.Joseph Y. Halpern, Ellery Eells & Brian Skyrms - 2000 - Philosophical Review 109 (2):277.
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  33.  11
    Models and Reality-A Review of Brian Skyrms's Evolution of the Social ContractEvolution of the Social Contract.Martin Barrett, Ellery Eells, Branden Fitelson, Elliott Sober & Brian Skyrms - 1999 - Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 59 (1):237.
  34.  28
    Levi's "the Wrong Box".Ellery Eells - 1985 - Journal of Philosophy 82 (2):91-104.
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  35.  73
    Propensity Trajectories, Preemption, and the Identity of Events.Ellery Eells - 2002 - Synthese 132 (1-2):119 - 141.
    I explore the problem of ``probabilistic causal preemption'' in the context of a``propensity trajectory'' theory of singular probabilistic causation. This involvesa particular conception of events and a substantive thesis concerning events soconceived.
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  36.  70
    Review: Bayes's Theorem. [REVIEW]Ellery Eells - 2004 - Mind 113 (451):591-596.
  37. Bayesian Epistemology: Probabilistic Confirmation and Rational Decision.Ellery Eells - 1995 - ProtoSociology 6.
     
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  38. Probability and Rationality: Studies on L. Jonathan Cohen's Philosophy of Science.Ellery Eells & Tomasz Maruszewski - 1991 - Rodopi.
     
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  39.  27
    On a Recent Theory of Rational Acceptance.Ellery Eells - 1983 - Philosophical Studies 44 (3):331 - 343.
  40.  5
    Bayesian Epistemology.Ellery Eells - 1994 - ProtoSociology 6:33-60.
    This paper distinguishes between "descriptive" and "normative" conceptions of Bayesian principles of rationality, both in the context of inference and in the context of decision. I emphasize an idea according to which, "You have to work with what you have to work with" - that is, that rationality is a relation among old beliefs, new information, and new beliefs and among beliefs, desires, preferences, and choices. According to this conception of rationality, one's current beliefs and desires are not themselves subject (...)
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  41.  24
    Quentin Smith on Infinity and the Past.Ellery Eells - 1988 - Philosophy of Science 55 (3):453-455.
    In a recent commendable article, Quentin Smith (1987) exposes fatal flaws in several recent attempts to demonstrate that it is logically impossible for the past to be infinite. However, his analysis of one of these flawed arguments--involving an interesting version of Russell's "Tristram Shandy paradox"--is off the mark, as I show in this paper.
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  42.  25
    Old Problems for a New Theory: Mayo on Giere's Theory of Causation.Ellery Eells & Elliott Sober - 1987 - Philosophical Studies 52 (3):291 - 307.
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  43.  5
    Models and Reality—A Review of Brian Skyrms’s Evolution of the Social Contract.Martin Barrett, Ellery Eells, Branden Fitelson & Elliott Sober - 1999 - Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 59 (1):237-241.
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  44.  4
    Levi's "The Wrong Box".Ellery Eells - 1985 - Journal of Philosophy 82 (2):91-104.
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  45.  4
    Probability, Objectivity and Evidence.Ellery Eells & F. C. Benenson - 1987 - Philosophical Review 96 (1):134.
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  46.  3
    Probability and Conditionals.Ellery Eells & Brian Skyrms - 1997 - Erkenntnis 46 (2):273-276.
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  47.  9
    Review: Cartwright on Probabilistic Causality: Types, Tokens, and Capacities. [REVIEW]Ellery Eells - 1995 - Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 55 (1):169 - 175.
  48.  2
    Causal Decision Theory.Ellery Eells - 1999 - ProtoSociology 13:159-180.
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  49.  5
    Bayess Theorem.Ellery Eells - 2004 - Mind 113 (451):591-596.
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  50. Cartwright on Probabilistic Causality: Types, Tokens, and Capacities.Ellery Eells - 1995 - Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 55 (1):169-175.
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