Results for 'Existential risk'

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  1.  55
    Space Colonization and Existential Risk.Joseph Gottlieb - forthcoming - Journal of the American Philosophical Association.
    Ian Stoner (2017) has recently argued that we ought not colonize Mars because (i) doing so would flout our pro tanto obligation to not violate the Principle of Scientific Conservation, and (ii) there is no countervailing considerations that render our violation of the principle permissible. Here I remain agnostic on (i). Instead, my primary goal is to challenge (ii): there are countervailing considerations that render our violation of the principle permissible. As such, Stoner has failed to establish that we ought (...)
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  2.  6
    “White Crisis” and/as “Existential Risk,” or the Entangled Apocalypticism of Artificial Intelligence.Syed Mustafa Ali - 2019 - Zygon 54 (1):207-224.
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  3.  18
    Part III Mediating Technologies of Risk.Rumour Risk - 2000 - In Barbara Adam, Ulrich Beck & Joost van Loon (eds.), The Risk Society and Beyond: Critical Issues for Social Theory. Sage Publications. pp. 136.
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  4. Existential Risks: Exploring a Robust Risk Reduction Strategy.Karim Jebari - 2015 - Science and Engineering Ethics 21 (3):541-554.
    A small but growing number of studies have aimed to understand, assess and reduce existential risks, or risks that threaten the continued existence of mankind. However, most attention has been focused on known and tangible risks. This paper proposes a heuristic for reducing the risk of black swan extinction events. These events are, as the name suggests, stochastic and unforeseen when they happen. Decision theory based on a fixed model of possible outcomes cannot properly deal with this kind (...)
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  5.  7
    Probabilities, Methodologies and the Evidence Base in Existential Risk Assessments.Thomas Rowe & Simon Beard - manuscript
    This paper examines and evaluates a range of methodologies that have been proposed for making useful claims about the probability of phenomena that would contribute to existential risk. Section One provides a brief discussion of the nature of such claims, the contexts in which they tend to be made and the kinds of probability that they can contain. Section Two provides an overview of the methodologies that have been developed to arrive at these probabilities and assesses their advantages (...)
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  6.  5
    Probabilities, Methodologies and the Evidence Base in Existential Risk Assessments.Thomas Rowe & Simon Beard - manuscript
    This paper examines and evaluates a range of methodologies that have been proposed for making useful claims about the probability of phenomena that would contribute to existential risk. Section One provides a brief discussion of the nature of such claims, the contexts in which they tend to be made and the kinds of probability that they can contain. Section Two provides an overview of the methodologies that have been developed to arrive at these probabilities and assesses their advantages (...)
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  7.  3
    Probabilities, Methodologies and the Evidence Base in Existential Risk Assessments.Thomas Rowe & Simon Beard - manuscript
    This paper examines and evaluates a range of methodologies that have been proposed for making useful claims about the probability of phenomena that would contribute to existential risk. Section One provides a brief discussion of the nature of such claims, the contexts in which they tend to be made and the kinds of probability that they can contain. Section Two provides an overview of the methodologies that have been developed to arrive at these probabilities and assesses their advantages (...)
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  8.  10
    Probabilities, Methodologies and the Evidence Base in Existential Risk Assessments.Thomas Rowe & Simon Beard - manuscript
    This paper examines and evaluates a range of methodologies that have been proposed for making useful claims about the probability of phenomena that would contribute to existential risk. Section One provides a brief discussion of the nature of such claims, the contexts in which they tend to be made and the kinds of probability that they can contain. Section Two provides an overview of the methodologies that have been developed to arrive at these probabilities and assesses their advantages (...)
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  9. The 1952 Allais Theory of Choice Involving Risk.of Choice Involving Risk - 1979 - In Maurice Allais & Ole Hagen (eds.), Expected Utility Hypotheses and the Allais Paradox. D. Reidel. pp. 25.
     
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  10.  27
    An Assessment of Existential Worldview Function Among Young Women at Risk for Depression and Anxiety—A Multi-Method Study.Christina Sophia Lloyd, Britt af Klinteberg & Valerie DeMarinis - 2017 - Archive for the Psychology of Religion 39 (2):165-203.
    _ Source: _Volume 39, Issue 2, pp 165 - 203 Increasing rates of psychiatric problems like depression and anxiety among Swedish youth, predominantly among females, are considered a serious public mental health concern. Multiple studies confirm that psychological as well as existential vulnerability manifest in different ways for youths in Sweden. This multi-method study aimed at assessing existential worldview function by three factors: 1) existential worldview, 2) ontological security, and 3) self-concept, attempting to identify possible protective and (...)
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  11.  2
    Existential Risk, Creativity & Well-Adapted Science.Adrian Currie - forthcoming - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A.
  12.  4
    Existential Risk, Creativity & Well-Adapted Science.Adrian Currie - forthcoming - Studies in the History and Philosophy of Science.
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  13.  77
    "If You Cannot Tolerate That Risk, You Should Never Become a Physician": A Qualitative Study About Existential Experiences Among Physicians.M. Aase, J. E. Nordrehaug & K. Malterud - 2008 - Journal of Medical Ethics 34 (11):767-771.
    Background and objectives: Physicians are exposed to matters of existential character at work, but little is known about the personal impact of such issues. Methods: To explore how physicians experience and cope with existential aspects of their clinical work and how such experiences affect their professional identities, a qualitative study using individual semistructured interviews has analysed accounts of their experiences related to coping with such challenges. Analysis was by systematic text condensation. The purposeful sample comprised 10 physicians (including (...)
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  14.  17
    “If You Cannot Tolerate That Risk, You Should Never Become a Physician”: A Qualitative Study About Existential Experiences Among Physicians.M. Aase, J. E. Nordrehaug & K. Malterud - 2008 - Journal of Medical Ethics 34 (11):767-771.
    Background and objectives: Physicians are exposed to matters of existential character at work, but little is known about the personal impact of such issues.Methods: To explore how physicians experience and cope with existential aspects of their clinical work and how such experiences affect their professional identities, a qualitative study using individual semistructured interviews has analysed accounts of their experiences related to coping with such challenges. Analysis was by systematic text condensation. The purposeful sample comprised 10 physicians , aged (...)
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  15. Why AI Doomsayers Are Like Sceptical Theists and Why It Matters.John Danaher - 2015 - Minds and Machines 25 (3):231-246.
    An advanced artificial intelligence could pose a significant existential risk to humanity. Several research institutes have been set-up to address those risks. And there is an increasing number of academic publications analysing and evaluating their seriousness. Nick Bostrom’s superintelligence: paths, dangers, strategies represents the apotheosis of this trend. In this article, I argue that in defending the credibility of AI risk, Bostrom makes an epistemic move that is analogous to one made by so-called sceptical theists in the (...)
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  16.  97
    Сo-evolutionary biosemantics of evolutionary risk at technogenic civilization: Hiroshima, Chernobyl – Fukushima and further….Valentin Cheshko & Valery Glazko - 2016 - International Journal of Environmental Problems 3 (1):14-25.
    From Chernobyl to Fukushima, it became clear that the technology is a system evolutionary factor, and the consequences of man-made disasters, as the actualization of risk related to changes in the social heredity (cultural transmission) elements. The uniqueness of the human phenomenon is a characteristic of the system arising out of the nonlinear interaction of biological, cultural and techno-rationalistic adaptive modules. Distribution emerging adaptive innovation within each module is in accordance with the two algorithms that are characterized by the (...)
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  17. Risks of Artificial Intelligence.Vincent C. Müller (ed.) - 2016 - CRC Press - Chapman & Hall.
    Papers from the conference on AI Risk (published in JETAI), supplemented by additional work. --- If the intelligence of artificial systems were to surpass that of humans, humanity would face significant risks. The time has come to consider these issues, and this consideration must include progress in artificial intelligence (AI) as much as insights from AI theory. -- Featuring contributions from leading experts and thinkers in artificial intelligence, Risks of Artificial Intelligence is the first volume of collected chapters dedicated (...)
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  18. Editorial: Risks of Artificial Intelligence.Vincent C. Müller - 2016 - In Risks of artificial intelligence. CRC Press - Chapman & Hall. pp. 1-8.
    If the intelligence of artificial systems were to surpass that of humans significantly, this would constitute a significant risk for humanity. Time has come to consider these issues, and this consideration must include progress in AI as much as insights from the theory of AI. The papers in this volume try to make cautious headway in setting the problem, evaluating predictions on the future of AI, proposing ways to ensure that AI systems will be beneficial to humans – and (...)
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  19.  95
    The Vulnerable World Hypothesis.Nick Bostrom - manuscript
    Scientific and technological progress might change people’s capabilities or incentives in ways that would destabilize civilization. For example, advances in DIY biohacking tools might make it easy for anybody with basic training in biology to kill millions; novel military technologies could trigger arms races in which whoever strikes first has a decisive advantage; or some economically advantageous process may be invented that produces disastrous negative global externalities that are hard to regulate. This paper introduces the concept of a vulnerable world: (...)
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  20. Bioeconomics, Biopolitics and Bioethics: Evolutionary Semantics of Evolutionary Risk (Anthropological Essay).V. T. Cheshko - 2016 - Bioeconomics and Ecobiopolitic (1 (2)).
    Attempt of trans-disciplinary analysis of the evolutionary value of bioethics is realized. Currently, there are High Tech schemes for management and control of genetic, socio-cultural and mental evolution of Homo sapiens (NBIC, High Hume, etc.). The biological, socio-cultural and technological factors are included in the fabric of modern theories and technologies of social and political control and manipulation. However, the basic philosophical and ideological systems of modern civilization formed mainly in the 17–18 centuries and are experiencing ever-increasing and destabilizing (...)-taking pressure from the scientific theories and technological realities. The sequence of diagnostic signs of a new era once again split into technological and natural sciences’ from one hand, and humanitarian and anthropological sciences’, from other. The natural sciences series corresponds to a system of technological risks be solved using algorithms established safety procedures. The socio-humanitarian series presented anthropological risk. Global bioethics phenomenon is regarded as systemic socio-cultural adaptation for technology-driven human evolution. The conceptual model for meta-structure of stable evolutionary strategy of Homo sapiens (SESH) is proposes. In accordance to model, SESH composed of genetic, socio-cultural and techno-rationalist modules, and global bioethics as a tool to minimize existential evolutionary risk. An existence of objectively descriptive and value-teleological evolutionary trajectory parameters of humanity in the modern technological and civilizational context (1), and the genesis of global bioethics as a system social adaptation to ensure self-identity (2) are postulated. -/- . (shrink)
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  21.  67
    COEVOLUTIONARY SEMANTICS OF TECHNOLOGICAL CIVILIZATION GENESIS AND EVOLUTIONARY RISK (BETWEEN THE BIOAESTHETICS AND BIOPOLITICS).V. T. Cheshko & O. N. Kuz - 2016 - Anthropological Dimensions of Philosophical Studies (10):43-55.
    Purpose (metatask) of the present work is to attempt to give a glance at the problem of existential and anthropo- logical risk caused by the contemporary man-made civilization from the perspective of comparison and confronta- tion of aesthetics, the substrate of which is emotional and metaphorical interpretation of individual subjective values and politics feeding by objectively rational interests of social groups. In both cases there is some semantic gap pre- sent between the represented social reality and its representation (...)
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  22.  73
    The Prolegomens to Theory of Human Stable Evolutionarciety at Age of Controlled Evolution Techny Strategy as Ideology of Risk Soologies.V. T. Cheshko - 2016 - In Teodor N. Țîrdea (ed.), // Strategia supravietuirii din perspectiva bioeticii, filosofiei și medicinei. Culegere de articole științifice. Vol. 22–. pp. 134-139.
    Stable adaptive strategy of Homo sapiens (SESH) is a superposition of three different adaptive data arrays: biological, socio-cultural and technological modules, based on three independent processes of generation and replication of an adaptive information – genetic, socio-cultural and symbolic transmissions (inheritance). Third component SESH focused equally to the adaptive transformation of the environment and carrier of SESH. With the advent of High Hume technology, risk has reached the existential significance level. The existential level of technical risk (...)
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  23.  33
    The Problem of Superintelligence: Political, Not Technological.Wolfhart Totschnig - forthcoming - AI and Society:1-14.
    The thinkers who have reflected on the problem of a coming superintelligence have generally seen the issue as a technological problem, a problem of how to control what the superintelligence will do. I argue that this approach is probably mistaken because it is based on questionable assumptions about the behavior of intelligent agents and, moreover, potentially counterproductive because it might, in the end, bring about the existential catastrophe that it is meant to prevent. I contend that the problem posed (...)
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  24.  30
    Existential Transcendence in Late Modernity: Edgework and Hermeneutic Reflexivity. [REVIEW]Stephen Lyng - 2012 - Human Studies 35 (3):401-414.
    Increasing attention to existentialist thought by criminologists and other social scientists in recent decades has created an opportunity to envision new possibilities in critical theoretic inquiry that extend well beyond the classical formulations of this tradition. In this essay, I draw on existentialist ideas to outline a critical perspective rooted in recent developments associated with Ulrich Beck's notion of "risk society" and the related theory of reflexive modernization. I argue that, though the detraditionalization consequences of reflexive modernization give greater (...)
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  25.  50
    EVOLUTIONARY RISK OF HIGH HUME TECHNOLOGIES. Article 2. THE GENESIS AND MECHANISMS OF EVOLUTIONARY RISK.V. T. Cheshko, L. V. Ivanitskaya & V. I. Glazko - 2015 - Integrative Anthropology (1):4-15.
    Sources of evolutionary risk for stable strategy of adaptive Homo sapiens are an imbalance of: (1) the intra-genomic co-evolution (intragenomic conflicts); (2) the gene-cultural co-evolution; (3) inter-cultural co-evolution; (4) techno-humanitarian balance; (5) inter-technological conflicts (technological traps). At least phenomenologically the components of the evolutionary risk are reversible, but in the aggregate they are in potentio irreversible destructive ones for biosocial, and cultural self-identity of Homo sapiens. When the actual evolution is the subject of a rationalist control and/or manipulation, (...)
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  26.  4
    Coevolutionary Semantics of Technological Civilization Genesis and Evolutionary Risk.V. T. Cheshko & O. M. Kuz - 2016 - Anthropological Measurements of Philosophical Research 10:43-55.
    Purpose of the present work is to attempt to give a glance at the problem of existential and anthropological risk caused by the contemporary man-made civilization from the perspective of comparison and confrontation of aesthetics, the substrate of which is emotional and metaphorical interpretation of individual subjective values and politics feeding by objectively rational interests of social groups. In both cases there is some semantic gap present between the represented social reality and its representation in perception of works (...)
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  27.  9
    The Black Hole Challenge: Precaution, Existential Risks and the Problem of Knowledge Gaps.Christian Munthe - forthcoming - Ethics, Policy and Environment:1-12.
    ABSTRACTSo-called ‘existential risks’ present virtually unlimited reasons for probing them and responses to them further. The ensuing normative pull to respond to such risks thus seems to present us with reasons to abandon all other projects and commit all time, efforts and resources to the management of each existential risk scenario. Advocates of the urgency of attending to existential risk use arguments that seem to lead to this paradoxical result, while they often hold out a (...)
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  28.  12
    The Unabomber’s Ethics.Ole Martin Moen - 2019 - Bioethics 33 (2):223-229.
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  29. Classification of Global Catastrophic Risks Connected with Artificial Intelligence.Alexey Turchin & Denkenberger David - 2018 - AI and Society.
    A classification of the global catastrophic risks of AI is presented, along with a comprehensive list of previously identified risks. This classification allows the identification of several new risks. We show that at each level of AI’s intelligence power, separate types of possible catastrophes dominate. Our classification demonstrates that the field of AI risks is diverse, and includes many scenarios beyond the commonly discussed cases of a paperclip maximizer or robot-caused unemployment. Global catastrophic failure could happen at various levels of (...)
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  30.  24
    Offsetting the Harms of Extinction.Michael Da Silva - 2015 - Law, Ethics and Philosophy 3:8-29.
    Many people assume that the extinction of humanity would be a bad thing. This article scrutinizes this apparent badness and demonstrates that on most plausible consequentialist frameworks, the extinction of humanity is not necessarily bad. The best accounts of the badness of the extinction of humanity focus on the loss of potential utility, but this loss can be offset if it is the result of sufficiently large gains by the present generation. Plausible means of calculating the goodness of outcomes accordingly (...)
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  31.  75
    Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards.Nick Bostrom - 2002 - Journal of Evolution and Technology 9 (1).
    Because of accelerating technological progress, humankind may be rapidly approaching a critical phase in its career. In addition to well-known threats such as nuclear holocaust, the propects of radically transforming technologies like nanotech systems and machine intelligence present us with unprecedented opportunities and risks. Our future, and whether we will have a future at all, may well be determined by how we deal with these challenges. In the case of radically transforming technologies, a better understanding of the transition dynamics from (...)
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  32.  28
    Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards.Nick Bostrom - unknown
    Because of accelerating technological progress, humankind may be rapidly approaching a critical phase in its career. In addition to well-known threats such as nuclear holocaust, the propects of radically transforming technologies like nanotech systems and machine intelligence present us with unprecedented opportunities and risks. Our future, and whether we will have a future at all, may well be determined by how we deal with these challenges. In the case of radically transforming technologies, a better understanding of the transition dynamics from (...)
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  33.  19
    Education, Risk and Ethics.Marianna Papastephanou - 2006 - Ethics and Education 1 (1):47-63.
    While the notion of risk remains under-theorised in moral philosophy, risk aversion and moralist self-protection appear as dominant cultural tendencies saturating educational orientation and practice. Philosophy of education has responded to the educational emphasis on risk management by exposing the unavoidable and positive presence of risk in any endeavour to learn and teach. Taking such responses into account, I discuss how the theoretical connection of risk and education could be radicalised through an ethical approach combined (...)
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  34.  2
    Coevolutionary Semantics of Technological Civilization Genesis and Evolutionary Risk.V. T. Cheshko & O. M. Kuz - 2016 - Antropologìčnì Vimìri Fìlosofsʹkih Doslìdžen' 10:43-55.
    Purpose of the present work is to attempt to give a glance at the problem of existential and anthropological risk caused by the contemporary man-made civilization from the perspective of comparison and confrontation of aesthetics, the substrate of which is emotional and metaphorical interpretation of individual subjective values and politics feeding by objectively rational interests of social groups. In both cases there is some semantic gap present between the represented social reality and its representation in perception of works (...)
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  35.  2
    The Risk of Being: What It Means to Be Good and Bad.Michael Gelven - 1997 - Pennsylvania State University Press.
    The Risk of Being attempts to forge a new language and a new way of reasoning about what it is like to be good and bad by focusing on existential phenomena that reveal what it means to be good and bad.
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  36.  30
    Between the Horns: A Dilemma in the Interpretation of the Running of the Bulls - Part 2: The Evasion.Jesus Ilundain-Agurruza - 2008 - Sport, Ethics and Philosophy 2 (1):18 – 38.
    This second part of the essay deals with the horns of the dilemma at the conceptual level and ?on the street?. The first part ended with that quandary where a deep understanding was precluded no matter which way one turned, whether an inadequate comprehension based on individual and partial notions, a perplexing pluralist path or a relinquishment of the hermeneutic enterprise altogether. The philosophical solution of existential overtones presently put forward deftly avoids the sharp ends of the predicament by (...)
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  37.  62
    Kierkegaard and the Internet: Existential Reflections on Education and Community. [REVIEW]Brian T. Prosser & Andrew Ward - 2000 - Ethics and Information Technology 2 (3):167-180.
    If the rhetorical and economic investment of educators, policy makersand the popular press in the United States is any indication, thenunbridled enthusiasm for the introduction of computer mediatedcommunication (CMC) into the educational process is wide-spread.In large part this enthusiasm is rooted in the hope that throughthe use of Internet-based CMC we may create an expanded communityof learners and educators not principally bounded by physicalgeography. The purpose of this paper is to reflect critically uponwhether students and teachers are truly linked together (...)
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  38.  12
    Violence and Morality: The Concession of Loss in a Ghanaian Fishing Village.Hans Lucht - 2010 - Journal of Religious Ethics 38 (3):468-477.
    When African migrants disappear on the Mediterranean going to Europe they often leave no trace—except for the occasional bodies that wash ashore on the beaches of southern Europe. In this essay, the urgent social and existential ramifications of migrant fatalities on the sea are explored. Drawing on ethnographic fieldwork in a small Ghanaian fishing village on the coast of the Gulf of Guinea, it is discussed how the bereaved struggle to make sense of these deaths to high-risk migration—how (...)
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  39.  4
    Beyond Support: Exploring Support as Existential Phenomenon in the Context of Young People and Mental Health.Mona Sommer & Tone Saevi - 2017 - Indo-Pacific Journal of Phenomenology 17 (2):1-11.
    Support in different modes, expressions and actions is at the core of the public welfare culture. In this paper, support is examined as an everyday interpersonal phenomenon with a variety of expressions in language and ways of relating, and its essential meaning is explored. The fulcrum for reflection is the lived experience shared by a young woman with mental health problems of her respective encounters with two professionals in mental health facilities. A phenomenological analysis of the contrasting accounts suggests that, (...)
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  40.  5
    Risk Taking in Adolescence.Orit Taubman-Ben-Ari - 2004 - In Jeff Greenberg, Sander L. Koole & Tom Pyszczynski (eds.), Handbook of Experimental Existential Psychology. Guilford Press.
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  41.  13
    Wittgenstein: “I Can’T Believe…or Rather Can’T Believe It Yet”.Brad Kallenberg - 2018 - International Journal for Philosophy of Religion 84 (2):161-183.
    Wittgenstein’s attitude toward Christian believing is more complicated that many philosophers have been led to believe. The hiccup in the received account began as a neglect of Wittgenstein’s subject-involving method in philosophy of religion. Wittgenstein’s method cannot be subsumed under the rubric of philosophy-as-[quasi-scientific]-explanation. Rather, Wittgenstein’s method was subject-involving in the sense that by his own methodology he put himself at existential risk. In 1931 he wrote that “[t]he movement of thought in my philosophizing should be discernible also (...)
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  42.  3
    Superintelligence: Fears, Promises and Potentials.Ben Goertzel - 2015 - Journal of Evolution and Technology 25 (2):55-87.
    Oxford philosopher Nick Bostrom; in his recent and celebrated book Superintelligence; argues that advanced AI poses a potentially major existential risk to humanity; and that advanced AI development should be heavily regulated and perhaps even restricted to a small set of government-approved researchers. Bostrom’s ideas and arguments are reviewed and explored in detail; and compared with the thinking of three other current thinkers on the nature and implications of AI: Eliezer Yudkowsky of the Machine Intelligence Research Institute ; (...)
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  43.  2
    Agential Risks: A Comprehensive Introduction.Phil Torres - 2016 - Journal of Evolution and Technology 26 (2):31-47.
    The greatest existential threats to humanity stem from increasingly powerful advanced technologies. Yet the “risk potential” of such tools can only be realized when coupled with a suitable agent who; through error or terror; could use the tool to bring about an existential catastrophe. While the existential risk literature has provided many accounts of how advanced technologies might be misused and abused to cause unprecedented harm; no scholar has yet explored the other half of the (...)
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  44.  34
    Dinosaurs, Dodos, Humans?Nick Bostrom - manuscript
    An existential risk is defined as one that threatens to annihilate Earth-originating intelligent life or permanently and drastically to curtail its potential. Since we are still here, we know that no existential disaster has ever occurred. But lacking experience with such disasters, it is also likely that we have not have evolved mechanisms, biologically or culturally, for managing existential risks.
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  45.  73
    Varieties of Risk.Philip A. Ebert, Martin Smith & Ian Durbach - forthcoming - Philosophy and Phenomenological Research.
    The notion of risk plays a central role in economics, finance, health, psychology, law and elsewhere, and is prevalent in managing challenges and resources in day-to-day life. In recent work, Duncan Pritchard (2015, 2016) has argued against the orthodox probabilistic conception of risk on which the risk of a hypothetical scenario is determined by how probable it is, and in favour of a modal conception on which the risk of a hypothetical scenario is determined by how (...)
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  46. A Virtue Ethical Account of Making Decisions About Risk.N. Athanassoulis & A. Ross - 2010 - Journal of Risk Research 13 (2):217.
    Abstract -/- Most discussions of risk are developed in broadly consequentialist terms, focusing on the outcomes of risks as such. This paper will provide an alternative account of risk from a virtue ethical perspective, shifting the focus to the decision to take the risk. Making ethical decisions about risk is, we will argue, not fundamentally about the actual chain of events that the decision sets in process, but about the reasonableness of the decision to take the (...)
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  47. Pharmaceutical Risk Communication: Sources of Uncertainty and Legal Tools of Uncertainty Management.Barbara Osimani - 2010 - Health Risk and Society 12 (5):453-69.
    Risk communication has been generally categorized as a warning act, which is performed in order to prevent or minimize risk. On the other side, risk analysis has also underscored the role played by information in reducing uncertainty about risk. In both approaches the safety aspects related to the protection of the right to health are on focus. However, it seems that there are cases where a risk cannot possibly be avoided or uncertainty reduced, this is (...)
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  48. Assessing Capability Instead of Achieved Functionings in Risk Analysis.Colleen Murphy & Paolo Gardoni - 2010 - Journal of Risk Research 13 (2):137-147.
    A capability approach has been proposed to risk analysis, where risk is conceptualized as the probability that capabilities are reduced. Capabilities refer to the genuine opportunities of individuals to achieve valuable doings and beings, such as being adequately nourished. Such doings and beings are called functionings. A current debate in risk analysis and other fields where a capability approach has been developed concerns whether capabilities or actual achieved functionings should be used. This paper argues that in (...) analysis the consequences of hazardous scenarios should be conceptualized in terms of capabilities, not achieved functionings. Furthermore, the paper proposes a method for assessing capabilities, which considers the levels of achieved functionings of other individuals with similar boundary conditions. The capability of an individual can then be captured statistically based on the variability of the achieved functionings over the considered population. (shrink)
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  49.  66
    Risk in a Simple Temporal Framework for Expected Utility Theory and for SKAT, the Stages of Knowledge Ahead Theory’, Risk and Decision Analysis, 2(1), 5-32. Selten Co-Author.Robin Pope & Reinhard Selten - 2010/2011 - Risk and Decision Analysis 2 (1).
    The paper re-expresses arguments against the normative validity of expected utility theory in Robin Pope (1983, 1991a, 1991b, 1985, 1995, 2000, 2001, 2005, 2006, 2007). These concern the neglect of the evolving stages of knowledge ahead (stages of what the future will bring). Such evolution is fundamental to an experience of risk, yet not consistently incorporated even in axiomatised temporal versions of expected utility. Its neglect entails a disregard of emotional and financial effects on well-being before a particular (...) is resolved. These arguments are complemented with an analysis of the essential uniqueness property in the context of temporal and atemporal expected utility theory and a proof of the absence of a limit property natural in an axiomatised approach to temporal expected utility theory. Problems of the time structure of risk are investigated in a simple temporal framework restricted to a subclass of temporal lotteries in the sense of David Kreps and Evan Porteus (1978). This subclass is narrow but wide enough to discuss basic issues. It will be shown that there are serious objections against the modification of expected utility theory axiomatised by Kreps and Porteus (1978, 1979). By contrast the umbrella theory proffered by Pope that she has now termed SKAT, the Stages of Knowledge Ahead Theory, offers an epistemically consistent framework within which to construct particular models to deal with particular decision situations. A model by Caplin and Leahy (2001) will also be discussed and contrasted with the modelling within SKAT (Pope, Leopold and Leitner 2007). (shrink)
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  50.  26
    Report From a Socratic Dialogue on the Concept of Risk.Erik Persson - 2005 - In Kristina Blennow (ed.), Uncertainty and Active Risk management in Agriculture and Forestry. Alnarp, Sweden: SLU. pp. 35-39.
    The term ’risk’ is used in a wide range of situations, but there is no real consensus of what it means. ‘Risk ‘is often stipulatively defined as “a probability for the occurrence of a negative event” or something similar. This formulation is however not very informative, and it fails to capture many of our intuitions about the concept or risk. One way of trying to find a common definition of a term within a group is to use (...)
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