Results for 'Forecasting'

317 found
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  1.  29
    Forecasting with Imprecise Probabilities.Teddy Seidenfeld, Mark J. Schervish & Joseph B. Kadane - unknown
    We review de Finetti’s two coherence criteria for determinate probabilities: coherence1defined in terms of previsions for a set of events that are undominated by the status quo – previsions immune to a sure-loss – and coherence2 defined in terms of forecasts for events undominated in Brier score by a rival forecast. We propose a criterion of IP-coherence2 based on a generalization of Brier score for IP-forecasts that uses 1-sided, lower and upper, probability forecasts. However, whereas Brier score is a strictly (...)
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  2.  20
    Forecasting and Ethical Decision Making: What Matters?Cheryl Stenmark - 2013 - Ethics and Behavior 23 (6):445-462.
    This study examined how the number and types of consequences considered are related to forecasting and ethical decision making. Undergraduate participants took on the role of the key actor in several ethical problems and were asked to forecast potential outcomes and make a decision about each problem. Performance pressure was manipulated by ostensibly making rewards contingent on good problem-solving performance. The results indicated that forecast quality was associated with decision ethicality, and the identification of the critical consequences of the (...)
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  3.  49
    Affective Forecasting and Its Implications for Medical Ethics.Rosamond Rhodes & James Strain - 2008 - Cambridge Quarterly of Healthcare Ethics 17 (1):54-65.
    Through a number of studies recently published in the psychology literature, T.D. Wilson, D.T. Gilbert, and others have demonstrated that our judgments about what our future mental states will be are contaminated by various distortions. Their studies distinguish a variety of different distortions, but they refer to them all with the generic term “affective forecasting.” The findings of their studies on normal volunteers are remarkably robust and, therefore, demonstrate that we are all vulnerable to the distortions of affective (...). a. (shrink)
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  4.  22
    Forecasting Crude Oil Consumption in China Using a Grey Prediction Model with an Optimal Fractional-Order Accumulating Operator.Huiming Duan, Guang Rong Lei & Kailiang Shao - 2018 - Complexity 2018:1-12.
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  5.  45
    Forecasting in Light of Big Data.Hykel Hosni & Angelo Vulpiani - 2018 - Philosophy and Technology 31 (4):557-569.
    Predicting the future state of a system has always been a natural motivation for science and practical applications. Such a topic, beyond its obvious technical and societal relevance, is also interesting from a conceptual point of view. This owes to the fact that forecasting lends itself to two equally radical, yet opposite methodologies. A reductionist one, based on first principles, and the naïve-inductivist one, based only on data. This latter view has recently gained some attention in response to the (...)
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  6.  4
    Temperature Forecasting Via Convolutional Recurrent Neural Networks Based on Time-Series Data.Zao Zhang & Yuan Dong - 2020 - Complexity 2020:1-8.
    Today, artificial intelligence and deep neural networks have been successfully used in many applications that have fundamentally changed people’s lives in many areas. However, very limited research has been done in the meteorology area, where meteorological forecasts still rely on simulations via extensive computing resources. In this paper, we propose an approach to using the neural network to forecast the future temperature according to the past temperature values. Specifically, we design a convolutional recurrent neural network model that is composed of (...)
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  7.  9
    Affective Forecasting and Self-Rated Symptoms of Depression, Anxiety, and Hypomania: Evidence for a Dysphoric Forecasting Bias.Michael Hoerger, Stuart W. Quirk, Benjamin P. Chapman & Paul R. Duberstein - 2012 - Cognition and Emotion 26 (6):1098-1106.
  8.  9
    Forecasting the Acquisition of University Spin-Outs: An RBF Neural Network Approach.Weiwei Liu, Zhile Yang & Kexin Bi - 2017 - Complexity:1-8.
    University spin-outs, creating businesses from university intellectual property, are a relatively common phenomena. As a knowledge transfer channel, the spin-out business model is attracting extensive attention. In this paper, the impacts of six equities on the acquisition of USOs, including founders, university, banks, business angels, venture capitals, and other equity, are comprehensively analyzed based on theoretical and empirical studies. Firstly, the average distribution of spin-out equity at formation is calculated based on the sample data of 350 UK USOs. According to (...)
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  9.  13
    Forecasting the Short-Term Traffic Flow in the Intelligent Transportation System Based on an Inertia Nonhomogenous Discrete Gray Model.Huiming Duan, Xinping Xiao & Lingling Pei - 2017 - Complexity:1-16.
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  10.  86
    Strategies in Forecasting Outcomes in Ethical Decision-Making: Identifying and Analyzing the Causes of the Problem.Michael D. Mumford, Chase E. Thiel, Jared J. Caughron, Xiaoqian Wang, Alison L. Antes & Cheryl K. Stenmark - 2010 - Ethics and Behavior 20 (2):110-127.
    This study examined the role of key causal analysis strategies in forecasting and ethical decision-making. Undergraduate participants took on the role of the key actor in several ethical problems and were asked to identify and analyze the causes, forecast potential outcomes, and make a decision about each problem. Time pressure and analytic mindset were manipulated while participants worked through these problems. The results indicated that forecast quality was associated with decision ethicality, and the identification of the critical causes of (...)
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  11.  33
    Probabilistic Forecasting: Why Model Imperfection is a Poison Pill.Roman Frigg, Seamus Bradley, Reason L. Machete & Leonard A. Smith - 2013 - In .
    This volume is a serious attempt to open up the subject of European philosophy of science to real thought, and provide the structural basis for the interdisciplinary development of its specialist fields, but also to provoke reflection on the idea of ‘European philosophy of science’. This efforts should foster a contemporaneous reflection on what might be meant by philosophy of science in Europe and European philosophy of science, and how in fact awareness of it could assist philosophers interpret and motivate (...)
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  12.  6
    Forecasting Financial Crashes: Revisit to Log-Periodic Power Law.Bingcun Dai, Fan Zhang, Domenico Tarzia & Kwangwon Ahn - 2018 - Complexity 2018:1-12.
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  13.  94
    Affective Forecasting: Why Can't People Predict Their Emotions?Peter Ayton, Alice Pott & Najat Elwakili - 2007 - Thinking and Reasoning 13 (1):62 – 80.
    Two studies explore the frequently reported finding that affective forecasts are too extreme. In the first study, driving test candidates forecast the emotional consequences of failing. Test failers overestimated the duration of their disappointment. Greater previous experience of this emotional event did not lead to any greater accuracy of the forecasts, suggesting that learning about one's own emotions is difficult. Failers' self-assessed chances of passing were lower a week after the test than immediately prior to the test; this difference correlated (...)
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  14.  37
    Empathic Forecasting: How Do We Predict Other People's Feelings?Monique Mh Pollmann & Catrin Finkenauer - 2009 - Cognition and Emotion 23 (5):978-1001.
  15.  9
    Consistent Forecasting Vs. Anchoring of Market Stories: Two Cultures of Modeling and Model Use in a Bank.Leon Wansleben - 2014 - Science in Context 27 (4):605-630.
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  16.  43
    Social Vision: Functional Forecasting and the Integration of Compound Social Cues.Reginald B. Adams & Kestutis Kveraga - 2015 - Review of Philosophy and Psychology 6 (4):591-610.
    For decades the study of social perception was largely compartmentalized by type of social cue: race, gender, emotion, eye gaze, body language, facial expression etc. This was partly due to good scientific practice, and partly due to assumptions that each type of social cue was functionally distinct from others. Herein, we present a functional forecast approach to understanding compound social cue processing that emphasizes the importance of shared social affordances across various cues. We review the traditional theories of emotion and (...)
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  17.  15
    On Forecasting Validity and Finessing Reliability.J. Barnard Gilmore - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (1):148-149.
  18.  16
    Day-Ahead Price Forecasting Based on Hybrid Prediction Model.Javad Olamaee, Mohsen Mohammadi, Alireza Noruzi & Seyed Mohammad Hassan Hosseini - 2016 - Complexity 21 (S2):156-164.
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  19.  5
    Defensive Forecasting: How to Use Similarity to Make Forecasts That Pass Statistical Tests.Glenn Shafer - 2008 - In Giacomo Della Riccia, Didier Dubois & Hans-Joachim Lenz (eds.), Preferences and Similarities. Springer. pp. 215--247.
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  20.  34
    Forecasting Modelling by Means of the KPM Method.Vladimir Faifr, Fedor Gál, Martin Potuček & Miloš Zeman - 1984 - World Futures 20 (1):105-133.
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  21.  17
    Age Differences in Affective Forecasting and Experienced Emotion Surrounding the 2008 US Presidential Election.Susanne Scheibe, Rui Mata & Laura L. Carstensen - 2011 - Cognition and Emotion 25 (6):1029-1044.
  22.  22
    Affect Regulation and Affective Forecasting.George Loewenstein - 2007 - In James J. Gross (ed.), Handbook of Emotion Regulation. Guilford Press. pp. 180--203.
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  23.  12
    Emotional Forecasting of Happiness.Hege Kristin Ringnes, Gry Stålsett, Harald Hegstad & Lars Johan Danbolt - forthcoming - New Content is Available for Archive for the Psychology of Religion.
    _ Source: _Page Count 32 The aim of this study was to explore which group-based emotion regulation goals and strategies are offered in the group culture of Jehovah’s Witnesses. Based on interviews with 29 group-active JW s in Norway, a thematic analysis was conducted in which an overall pattern of cognition taking precedence over emotions was found. Due to end-time expectations and a long-term goal of eternal life in Paradise, future emotions were prioritized. The emotion regulation strategies identified among JW (...)
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  24.  44
    Emotional Forecasting of Happiness.Hege Kristin Ringnes, Gry Stålsett, Harald Hegstad & Lars Johan Danbolt - 2017 - Archive for the Psychology of Religion 39 (3):312-343.
    _ Source: _Page Count 32 The aim of this study was to explore which group-based emotion regulation goals and strategies are offered in the group culture of Jehovah’s Witnesses. Based on interviews with 29 group-active JW s in Norway, a thematic analysis was conducted in which an overall pattern of cognition taking precedence over emotions was found. Due to end-time expectations and a long-term goal of eternal life in Paradise, future emotions were prioritized. The emotion regulation strategies identified among JW (...)
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  25.  9
    Realistic Affective Forecasting: The Role of Personality.Michael Hoerger, Ben Chapman & Paul Duberstein - 2016 - Cognition and Emotion 30 (7).
  26.  57
    Improving Case-Based Ethics Training with Codes of Conduct and Forecasting Content.Lauren N. Harkrider, Chase E. Thiel, Zhanna Bagdasarov, Michael D. Mumford, James F. Johnson, Shane Connelly & Lynn D. Devenport - 2012 - Ethics and Behavior 22 (4):258 - 280.
    Although case-based training is popular for ethics education, little is known about how specific case content influences training effectiveness. Therefore, the effects of (a) codes of ethical conduct and (b) forecasting content were investigated. Results revealed richer cases, including both codes and forecasting content, led to increased knowledge acquisition, greater sensemaking strategy use, and better decision ethicality. With richer cases, a specific pattern emerged. Specifically, content describing codes alone was more effective when combined with short-term forecasts, whereas content (...)
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  27.  20
    Emotional Forecasting of Happiness.Ringnes Hege Kristin, Gry Stålsett, Harald Hegstad & Lars Johan Danboltd - 2017 - Archive for the Psychology of Religion 39 (3):312-343.
    _ Source: _Volume 39, Issue 3, pp 312 - 343 The aim of this study was to explore which group-based emotion regulation goals and strategies are offered in the group culture of Jehovah’s Witnesses. Based on interviews with 29 group-active JW s in Norway, a thematic analysis was conducted in which an overall pattern of cognition taking precedence over emotions was found. Due to end-time expectations and a long-term goal of eternal life in Paradise, future emotions were prioritized. The emotion (...)
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  28.  22
    Forecasting, Prediction and Precision: A Commentary.Jamie Morgan - 2012 - Economic Thought 1 (2).
    Forecasting involves an underlying conceptualization of probability. It is this that gives sense to the notion of precision in number that makes us think of economic forecasting as more than simply complicated guesswork. We think of it as well-founded statement, a science and not an art of numbers. However, this understanding is at odds with the nature of social reality and the attributes of the forecaster. We should think differently about how we both anticipate and make the future (...)
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  29. Forecasting Different Types of Droughts Simultaneously Using Multivariate Standardized Precipitation Index (MSPI), MLP Neural Network, and Imperialistic Competitive Algorithm.Pouya Aghelpour & Vahid Varshavian - 2021 - Complexity 2021:1-16.
    Precipitation deficit causes meteorological drought, and its continuation appears as other different types of droughts including hydrological, agricultural, economic, and social droughts. Multivariate Standardized Precipitation Index can show the drought status from the perspective of different drought types simultaneously. Forecasting multivariate droughts can provide good information about the future status of a region and will be applicable for the planners of different water divisions. In this study, the MLP model and its hybrid form with the Imperialistic Competitive Algorithm have (...)
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  30.  20
    Forecasting Reservoir Performance by Mapping Seismic Emissions.Charles Sicking, Jan Vermilye & Ashley Yaner - 2017 - Interpretation: SEG 5 (4):T451-T459.
    Streaming depth imaging is a modified version of Kirchhoff migration that images the intensity and distribution of weak seismic waves emitted from rocks at depth. These images reveal the locations of the fractures and fracture networks in the reservoir. SDI allows for more informed forecasts for drilling, hydraulic fracturing, and reservoir management than is provided by traditional microearthquake mapping methods. Using passive data from surface and near-surface geophone grids, SDI integrates the seismic emissions over time to form the fracture activity (...)
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  31.  2
    Forecasting Using Information and Entropy Based on Belief Functions.Woraphon Yamaka & Songsak Sriboonchitta - 2020 - Complexity 2020:1-16.
    This paper introduces an entropy-based belief function to the forecasting problem. While the likelihood-based belief function needs to know the distribution of the objective function for the prediction, the entropy-based belief function does not. This is because the observed data likelihood is somewhat complex in practice. We, thus, replace the likelihood function with the entropy. That is, we propose an approach in which a belief function is built from the entropy function. As an illustration, the proposed method is compared (...)
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  32.  14
    Methodological Issues in Forecasting: Insights From the Egregious Business Forecast Errors of Late 1930.Robert S. Goldfarb, H. O. Stekler & Joel David - 2005 - Journal of Economic Methodology 12 (4):517-542.
    This paper examines some economic forecasts made in late 1930 that were intended to predict economic activity in the United States in order to shed light on several methodological issues. We document that these forecasts were extremely optimistic, predicting that the recession in the US would soon end, and that 1931 would show a recovery. These forecasts displayed egregious errors, because 1931 witnessed the largest negative growth rate for the US economy in any year in the twentieth century. A specific (...)
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  33. Scientific Forecasting and Human Needs: Trends, Methods, and Message: Proceedings of a Symposium Held in Tbilisi, Ussr, 6-11 December 1981. [REVIEW]Augusto Forti (ed.) - 1984 - Pergamon Press.
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  34.  6
    Forecasting CDS Term Structure Based on Nelson–Siegel Model and Machine Learning.Won Joong Kim, Gunho Jung & Sun-Yong Choi - 2020 - Complexity 2020:1-23.
    In this study, we analyze the term structure of credit default swaps and predict future term structures using the Nelson–Siegel model, recurrent neural network, support vector regression, long short-term memory, and group method of data handling using CDS term structure data from 2008 to 2019. Furthermore, we evaluate the change in the forecasting performance of the models through a subperiod analysis. According to the empirical results, we confirm that the Nelson–Siegel model can be used to predict not only the (...)
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  35.  8
    Forecasting of the Influence of Financial Institutions Loan Portfolio Change for the Economic Sectors of the Country.Laura Pupelyte & Daiva Jureviciene - 2013 - Creative and Knowledge Society 3 (1):1-16.
    Purpose of the article is to predict the interrelationship between the change of financial institutions loan portfolio and activities of the main economic sectors in Lithuania. Coherence between financial intermediation and economic growth cause a great interest of economists during the late decade. Prevailed opinion that banking sector is the reflection of economic growth and expansion and that its role - to intermediate in the saving and investing needs, reallocating funds between economic activities, was replaced by sentiment that strong and (...)
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  36.  55
    Further Thoughts About Affective Forecasting Biases in Medicine: A Response to Nada Gligorov.Rosamond Rhodes & James J. Strain - 2009 - Cambridge Quarterly of Healthcare Ethics 18 (2):174.
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  37.  31
    Examining the Effects of Incremental Case Presentation and Forecasting Outcomes on Case-Based Ethics Instruction.Alexandra E. MacDougall, Lauren N. Harkrider, Zhanna Bagdasarov, James F. Johnson, Chase E. Thiel, Juandre Peacock, Michael D. Mumford, Lynn D. Devenport & Shane Connelly - 2014 - Ethics and Behavior 24 (2):126-150.
    Case-based reasoning has long been used to facilitate instructional effectiveness. Although much remains to be known concerning the most beneficial way to present case material, recent literature suggests that simplifying case material is favorable. Accordingly, the current study manipulated two instructional techniques, incremental case presentation and forecasting outcomes, in a training environment in an attempt to better understand the utility of simplified versus complicated case presentation for learning. Findings suggest that pairing these two cognitively demanding techniques reduces satisfaction and (...)
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  38.  9
    The Epistemologies of Non-Forecasting Simulations, Part I: Industrial Dynamics and Management Pedagogy at MIT.William Thomas & Lambert Williams - 2009 - Science in Context 22 (2):245-270.
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  39.  3
    Affective Forecasting: A Selective Relationship with Working Memory for Emotion.Colleen C. Frank, Alexandru D. Iordan, Tara L. Ballouz, Joseph A. Mikels & Patricia A. Reuter-Lorenz - 2021 - Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 150 (1):67-82.
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  40. Individual Forecasting and Aggregate Outcomes: 'Rational Expectations' Examined.Roman Frydman & Edmund S. Phelps (eds.) - 1986 - Cambridge University Press.
    Growing out of a conference on Expectations Formation and Economic Disequilibrium held in New York City in 1981, the papers in this volume provide a complex view of market processes in which individual rationality is no guarantee of convergence to the 'correct' model and the equilibrium coordination of agents' plans. They reject the 'optimality' argument for the rational expectations hypothesis, opening the door to other hypotheses of optimal expectations of agents in the decentralized market economy.
     
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  41. Forecasting Workload and Airspace Configuration with Neural Networks and Tree Search Methods.David Gianazza - 2010 - Artificial Intelligence 174 (7-8):530-549.
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  42.  8
    A Forecasting Classic in Hindsight.Peder Roberts - 2018 - Isis 109 (1):133-136.
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  43. Forecasting with Imprecise/Indeterminate Probabilities [IP] – Some Preliminary Findings.Teddy Seidenfeld, Mark Schervish & Jay Kadane - unknown
    Part 1 Background on de Finetti’s twin criteria of coherence: Coherence1: 2-sided previsions free from dominance through a Book. Coherence2: Forecasts free from dominance under Brier (squared error) score. Part 2 IP theory based on a scoring rule.
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  44.  1
    Forecasting Falls: Icarus From Freud to Auden to 9/11.Pamela Thurschwell - 2008 - Oxford Literary Review 30 (2):201-234.
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  45.  6
    Forecasting Theory: Problems and Exemplars in the Twenty-First Century.Stanley R. Barrett - 1999 - In E. L. Cerroni-Long (ed.), Anthropological Theory in North America. Bergin & Garvey. pp. 255.
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  46.  8
    Forecasting Enrollments Based on High-Order Fuzzy Time Series.Shyi-Ming Chen - 2002 - In Robert Trappl (ed.), Cybernetics and Systems. Austrian Society for Cybernetics Studies. pp. 33--1.
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  47.  1
    Probabilistic Forecasting: Why Model Imperfection is a Poison Pill.Roman Frigg, Seamus Bradley, Reason L. Machete & Leonard A. Smith - 2013 - In Hanne Andersen, Dennis Dieks, Wenceslao Gonzalez, Thomas Ubel & Gregory Wheeler (eds.), New Challenges to Philosophy of Science. pp. 479-492.
    This volume is a serious attempt to open up the subject of European philosophy of science to real thought, and provide the structural basis for the interdisciplinary development of its specialist fields, but also to provoke reflection on the idea of ‘European philosophy of science’. This efforts should foster a contemporaneous reflection on what might be meant by philosophy of science in Europe and European philosophy of science, and how in fact awareness of it could assist philosophers interpret and motivate (...)
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  48. Forecasting the Business Cycle.Alfred Kähler - forthcoming - Social Research.
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  49.  4
    Forecasting the Weather: James Roger Fleming: Inventing Atmospheric Science: Bjerknes, Rossby, Wexler and the Foundation of Modern Meteorology. Cambridge, Massachusetts and London: MIT Press, 2016, 296 Pp, $31.00 HB, $22.00 E-Book.Cornelia Lüdecke - 2017 - Metascience 26 (2):323-324.
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  50.  44
    Forecasting Tournaments, Epistemic Humility and Attitude Depolarization.Barbara Mellers, Philip Tetlock & Hal R. Arkes - 2019 - Cognition 188:19-26.
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