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  1.  45
    A Mathematical Theory of Evidence.Glenn Shafer - 1976 - Princeton University Press.
    Degrees of belief; Dempster's rule of combination; Simple and separable support functions; The weights of evidence; Compatible frames of discernment; Support functions; The discernment of evidence; Quasi support functions; Consonance; Statistical evidence; The dual nature of probable reasoning.
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  2.  12
    Non-additive probabilities in the work of Bernoulli and Lambert.Glenn Shafer - 1978 - Archive for History of Exact Sciences 19 (4):309-370.
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  3.  55
    Constructive probability.Glenn Shafer - 1981 - Synthese 48 (1):1-60.
  4.  13
    The Art of Causal Conjecture.Glenn Shafer - 1996 - MIT Press.
    THE ART OF CAUSAL CONJECTURE Glenn Shafer Table of Contents Chapter 1. Introduction........................................................................................ ...........1 1.1. Probability Trees..........................................................................................3 1.2. Many Observers, Many Stances, Many Natures..........................................8 1.3. Causal Relations as Relations in Nature’s Tree...........................................9 1.4. Evidence............................................................................................ ...........13 1.5. Measuring the Average Effect of a Cause....................................................17 1.6. Causal Diagrams..........................................................................................20 1.7. Humean Events............................................................................................23 1.8. Three Levels of Causal Language................................................................27 1.9. An Outline of the Book................................................................................27 Chapter 2. Event Trees............................................................................................... .....31 2.1. Situations and Events...................................................................................32 2.2. The Ordering of Situations and Moivrean Events.......................................35 2.3. Cuts................................................................................................ ..............39 2.4. Humean Events............................................................................................43 2.5. (...)
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  5.  28
    Languages and Designs for Probability Judgment.Glenn Shafer & Amos Tversky - 1985 - Cognitive Science 9 (3):309-339.
    Theories of subjective probability are viewed as formal languages for analyzing evidence and expressing degrees of belief. This article focuses on two probability langauges, the Bayesian language and the language of belief functions (Shafer, 1976). We describe and compare the semantics (i.e., the meaning of the scale) and the syntax (i.e., the formal calculus) of these languages. We also investigate some of the designs for probability judgment afforded by the two languages.
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  6. Jeffrey's rule of conditioning.Glenn Shafer - 1981 - Philosophy of Science 48 (3):337-362.
    Richard Jeffrey's generalization of Bayes' rule of conditioning follows, within the theory of belief functions, from Dempster's rule of combination and the rule of minimal extension. Both Jeffrey's rule and the theory of belief functions can and should be construed constructively, rather than normatively or descriptively. The theory of belief functions gives a more thorough analysis of how beliefs might be constructed than Jeffrey's rule does. The inadequacy of Bayesian conditioning is much more general than Jeffrey's examples of uncertain perception (...)
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  7.  27
    What Does the Arrest and Release of Emile Borel and His Colleagues in 1941 Tell Us about the German Occupation of France?Laurent Mazliak & Glenn Shafer - 2011 - Science in Context 24 (4):587-623.
    ArgumentThe Germans occupying Paris arrested Emile Borel and three other members of the Académie des Sciences in October 1941 and released them about five weeks later. Drawing on German and French archives and other sources, we argue that these events illustrate the complexity of the motivations and tactics of the occupiers and the occupied. While Borel and his colleagues were genuine members of the Resistance, and those who arrested them were full participants in a brutal occupation, both sides respected a (...)
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  8.  6
    Implementing Dempster's rule for hierarchical evidence.Glenn Shafer & Roger Logan - 1987 - Artificial Intelligence 33 (3):271-298.
  9.  50
    A subjective interpretation of conditional probability.Glenn Shafer - 1983 - Journal of Philosophical Logic 12 (4):453 - 466.
  10.  17
    Two Theories of Probability.Glenn Shafer - 1978 - PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1978:441 - 465.
  11. A betting interpretation for probabilities and Dempster-Shafer degrees of belief.Glenn Shafer - 2010 - International Journal of Approximate Reasoning.
  12.  20
    A theory of probability should tutor our intuitions.Glenn Shafer - 1983 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 6 (3):508.
  13. Comments on Harman and Kulkarni's "Reliable Reasoning".Glenn Shafer - 2009 - Abstracta 5 (S3):10-17.
     
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  14.  9
    Defensive Forecasting: How to Use Similarity to Make Forecasts That Pass Statistical Tests.Glenn Shafer - 2008 - In Giacomo Della Riccia, Didier Dubois & Hans-Joachim Lenz (eds.), Preferences and Similarities. Springer. pp. 215--247.
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  15.  35
    Review essay.Glenn Shafer - 1995 - Synthese 104 (1):161-176.
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  16.  58
    The situation of causality.Glenn Shafer - 1995 - Foundations of Science 1 (4):543-563.
    Causality in the abstract is a grand theme. We take it up when we want to penetrate to the bottom of things to understand general laws that govern the working at the world of the deepest and most detailed level.In this essay, I argue for a more situated understanding of causality. To counter our desire for ever greater generality, I suggest that causal relations, even those that hold only on average, require context. To counter our desire for ever greater detail, (...)
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  17.  8
    Two Theories of Probability.Glenn Shafer - 1978 - PSA Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1978 (2):440-465.
    In a recent monograph, I advocated a new theory—the theory of belief functions—as an alternative to the Bayesian theory of epistemic probability. In this paper I compare the two theories in the context of a simple but authentic example of assessing evidence.The Bayesian theory is ostensibly the theory that assessment of evidence should proceed by conditioning additive probability distributions; this theory dates from the work of Bayes and Laplace in the second half of the eighteenth century. It is indisputably the (...)
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  18.  17
    I. J. Bienayme: Statistical Theory Anticipated By C. C. Heyde; E. Seneta. [REVIEW]Glenn Shafer - 1979 - Isis 70:329-329.