Results for 'Interpretation of Probability'

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  1. Salmon and Van Fraassen on the Existence of Unobservable Entities: A Matter of Interpretation of Probability[REVIEW]Federica Russo - 2006 - Foundations of Science 11 (3):221-247.
    A careful analysis of Salmon’s Theoretical Realism and van Fraassen’s Constructive Empiricism shows that both share a common origin: the requirement of literal construal of theories inherited by the Standard View. However, despite this common starting point, Salmon and van Fraassen strongly disagree on the existence of unobservable entities. I argue that their different ontological commitment towards the existence of unobservables traces back to their different views on the interpretation of probability via different conceptions of induction. In fact, (...)
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  2.  33
    A Frequentist Interpretation of Probability for Model-Based Inductive Inference.Aris Spanos - 2013 - Synthese 190 (9):1555-1585.
    The main objective of the paper is to propose a frequentist interpretation of probability in the context of model-based induction, anchored on the Strong Law of Large Numbers (SLLN) and justifiable on empirical grounds. It is argued that the prevailing views in philosophy of science concerning induction and the frequentist interpretation of probability are unduly influenced by enumerative induction, and the von Mises rendering, both of which are at odds with frequentist model-based induction that dominates current (...)
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  3. The Concept of Probability in Physics: An Analytic Version of von Mises’ Interpretation.Louis Vervoort - manuscript
    In the following we will investigate whether von Mises’ frequency interpretation of probability can be modified to make it philosophically acceptable. We will reject certain elements of von Mises’ theory, but retain others. In the interpretation we propose we do not use von Mises’ often criticized ‘infinite collectives’ but we retain two essential claims of his interpretation, stating that probability can only be defined for events that can be repeated in similar conditions, and that exhibit (...)
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  4.  5
    What is Logical About the Logical Interpretation of Probability?Torfehnezhad Parzhad - 2016 - Abstracta 9 (1).
    My goal, in this paper, is to critically assess the categorization of “interpretations of probability” as it appears in the literature. In some sources only Carnap’s treatment of probability is understood to be the best example of “logical” probability. This is surprisingly narrow and I will here suggest otherwise. In fact, I believe that certain forms of Baysianism should also be included in the logical camp.
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  5.  36
    The Propensity Interpretation of Fitness and the Propensity Interpretation of Probability.Isabelle Drouet & Francesca Merlin - 2015 - Erkenntnis 80 (3):457-468.
    The paper provides a new critical perspective on the propensity interpretation of fitness, by investigating its relationship to the propensity interpretation of probability. Two main conclusions are drawn. First, the claim that fitness is a propensity cannot be understood properly: fitness is not a propensity in the sense prescribed by the propensity interpretation of probability. Second, this interpretation of probability is inessential for explanations proposed by the PIF in evolutionary biology. Consequently, interpreting the (...)
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  6.  35
    Relative Frequency and Probability in the Everett Interpretation of Heisenberg-Picture Quantum Mechanics.Mark A. Rubin - 2003 - Foundations of Physics 33 (3):379-405.
    The existence of probability in the sense of the frequency interpretation, i.e., probability as “long term relative frequency,” is shown to follow from the dynamics and the interpretational rules of Everett quantum mechanics in the Heisenberg picture. This proof is free of the difficulties encountered in applying to the Everett interpretation previous results regarding relative frequency and probability in quantum mechanics. The ontology of the Everett interpretation in the Heisenberg picture is also discussed.
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  7.  52
    An Interpretation of Probability in the Law of Evidence Based on Pro-Et-Contra Argumentation.Lennart Åqvist - 2007 - Artificial Intelligence and Law 15 (4):391-410.
    The purpose of this paper is to improve on the logical and measure-theoretic foundations for the notion of probability in the law of evidence, which were given in my contributions Åqvist [ (1990) Logical analysis of epistemic modality: an explication of the Bolding–Ekelöf degrees of evidential strength. In: Klami HT (ed) Rätt och Sanning (Law and Truth. A symposium on legal proof-theory in Uppsala May 1989). Iustus Förlag, Uppsala, pp 43–54; (1992) Towards a logical theory of legal evidence: semantic (...)
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  8.  49
    Time and the Propensity Interpretation of Probability.Niall Shanks - 1993 - Journal for General Philosophy of Science / Zeitschrift für Allgemeine Wissenschaftstheorie 24 (2):293 - 302.
    The prime concern of this paper is with the nature of probability. It is argued that questions concerning the nature of probability are intimately linked to questions about the nature of time. The case study here concerns the single case propensity interpretation of probability. It is argued that while this interpretation of probability has a natural place in the quantum theory, the metaphysical picture of time to be found in relativity theory is incompatible with (...)
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  9.  67
    Toward a Mechanistic Interpretation of Probability.Marshall Abrams - unknown
    I sketch a new objective interpretation of probability, called "mechanistic probability", and more specifically what I call "far-flung frequency (FFF) mechanistic probability". FFF mechanistic probability is defined in terms of facts about the causal structure of devices and certain sets of collections of frequencies in the actual world. The relevant kind of causal structure is a generalization of what Strevens (2003) calls microconstancy. Though defined partly in terms of frequencies, FFF mechanistic probability avoids many (...)
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  10.  20
    The Significance of the Ergodic Decomposition of Stationary Measures for the Interpretation of Probability.Jan von Plato - 1982 - Synthese 53 (3):419 - 432.
    De Finetti's representation theorem is a special case of the ergodic decomposition of stationary probability measures. The problems of the interpretation of probabilities centred around de Finetti's theorem are extended to this more general situation. The ergodic decomposition theorem has a physical background in the ergodic theory of dynamical systems. Thereby the interpretations of probabilities in the cases of de Finetti's theorem and its generalization and in ergodic theory are systematically connected to each other.
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  11.  15
    An Alternative Interpretation of Probability Measures in Statistical Mechanics.C. D. McCoy - manuscript
    I offer an alternative interpretation of classical statistical mechanics and the role of probability in the theory. In my view the stochasticity of statistical mechanics is associated directly with the observables rather than microstates. This view requires taking seriously the idea that the physical state of a statistical mechanical system is a probability measure, thereby avoiding the unnecessary ontological presupposition that the system is composed of a large number of classical particles.
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  12.  35
    The Significance of the Ergodic Decomposition of Stationary Measures for the Interpretation of Probability.Jan Plato - 1982 - Synthese 53 (3):419-432.
    De Finetti's representation theorem is a special case of the ergodic decomposition of stationary probability measures. The problems of the interpretation of probabilities centred around de Finetti's theorem are extended to this more general situation. The ergodic decomposition theorem has a physical background in the ergodic theory of dynamical systems. Thereby the interpretations of probabilities in the cases of de Finetti's theorem and its generalization and in ergodic theory are systematically connected to each other.
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  13.  18
    Probability in the Many-Worlds Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics.Lev Vaidman - 2012 - In Yemima Ben-Menahem & Meir Hemmo (eds.), Probability in Physics. Springer. pp. 299--311.
    It is argued that, although in the Many-Worlds Interpretation of quantum mechanics there is no ``probability'' for an outcome of a quantum experiment in the usual sense, we can understand why we have an illusion of probability. The explanation involves: a). A ``sleeping pill'' gedanken experiment which makes correspondence between an illegitimate question: ``What is the probability of an outcome of a quantum measurement?'' with a legitimate question: ``What is the probability that ``I'' am in (...)
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  14.  18
    Semi-Classical Limit and Minimum Decoherence in the Conditional Probability Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics.Vincent Corbin & Neil J. Cornish - 2009 - Foundations of Physics 39 (5):474-485.
    The Conditional Probability Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics replaces the abstract notion of time used in standard Quantum Mechanics by the time that can be read off from a physical clock. The use of physical clocks leads to apparent non-unitary and decoherence. Here we show that a close approximation to standard Quantum Mechanics can be recovered from conditional Quantum Mechanics for semi-classical clocks, and we use these clocks to compute the minimum decoherence predicted by the Conditional Probability (...). (shrink)
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  15.  30
    The Smith-Walley Interpretation of Subjective Probability: An Appreciation.Carl G. Wagner - 2007 - Studia Logica 86 (2):343-350.
    The right interpretation of subjective probability is implicit in the theories of upper and lower odds, and upper and lower previsions, developed, respectively, by Cedric Smith (1961) and Peter Walley (1991). On this interpretation you are free to assign contingent events the probability 1 (and thus to employ conditionalization as a method of probability revision) without becoming vulnerable to a weak Dutch book.
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  16. A Probability Logical Interpretation of Fallacies.Niki Pfeifer - 2008 - In G. Kreuzbauer, N. Gratzl & E. Hiebl (eds.), Rhetorische Wissenschaft: Rede Und Argumentation in Theorie Und Praxis. Lit. pp. 225--244.
    This chapter presents a probability logical approach to fallacies. A special interpretation of (subjective) probability is used, which is based on coherence. Coherence provides not only a foundation of probability theory, but also a normative standard of reference for distinguishing fallacious from non-fallacious arguments. The violation of coherence is sufficient for an argument to be fallacious. The inherent uncertainty of everyday life argumentation is captured by attaching degrees of belief to the premises. Probability logic analyzes (...)
     
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  17.  9
    “Memory of Water” Without Water: Modeling of Benveniste’s Experiments with a Personalist Interpretation of Probability.Francis Beauvais - 2016 - Axiomathes 26 (3):329-345.
    Benveniste’s experiments were at the origin of a scientific controversy that has never been satisfactorily resolved. Hypotheses based on modifications of water structure that were proposed to explain these experiments were generally considered as quite improbable. In the present paper, we show that Benveniste’s experiments violated the law of total probability, one of the pillars of classical probability theory. Although this could suggest that quantum logic was at work, the decoherence process is however at first sight an obstacle (...)
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  18. The Emergence and Interpretation of Probability in Bohmian Mechanics.Craig Callender - 2007 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 38 (2):351-370.
    A persistent question about the deBroglie–Bohm interpretation of quantum mechanics concerns the understanding of Born’s rule in the theory. Where do the quantum mechanical probabilities come from? How are they to be interpreted? These are the problems of emergence and interpretation. In more than 50 years no consensus regarding the answers has been achieved. Indeed, mirroring the foundational disputes in statistical mechanics, the answers to each question are surprisingly diverse. This paper is an opinionated survey of this literature. (...)
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  19.  27
    The Propensity Interpretation of Probability: A Re-Evaluation.Joseph Berkovitz - 2015 - Erkenntnis 80 (3):629-711.
    Single-case and long-run propensity theories are among the main objective interpretations of probability. There have been various objections to these theories, e.g. that it is difficult to explain why propensities should satisfy the probability axioms and, worse, that propensities are at odds with these axioms, that the explication of propensities is circular and accordingly not informative, and that single-case propensities are metaphysical and accordingly non-scientific. We consider various propensity theories of probability and their prospects in light of (...)
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  20. A Propensity Interpretation of Probability.Karl Popper - 2010 - In Antony Eagle (ed.), Philosophy of Probability: Contemporary Readings. Routledge.
  21. Counting Steps: A Finitist Interpretation of Objective Probability in Physics.Amit Hagar & Giuseppe Sergioli - 2015 - Epistemologia 37 (2):262-275.
    We propose a new interpretation of objective deterministic chances in statistical physics based on physical computational complexity. This notion applies to a single physical system (be it an experimental set--up in the lab, or a subsystem of the universe), and quantifies (1) the difficulty to realize a physical state given another, (2) the 'distance' (in terms of physical resources) from a physical state to another, and (3) the size of the set of time--complexity functions that are compatible with the (...)
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  22. The Propensity Interpretation of Probability.Karl R. Popper - 1959 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 10 (37):25-42.
  23.  35
    On the Interpretation of Intuitive Probability: A Reply to Jonathan Cohen.Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky - 1979 - Cognition 7 (December):409-11.
  24.  3
    The Emergence and Interpretation of Probability in Bohmian Mechanics.Craig Callender - 2007 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 38 (2):351-370.
  25. The Emergence and Interpretation of Probability in Bohmian Mechanics.Craig Callender - 2006 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 38 (2):351-370.
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  26. Suppes's Criticism of the Propensity Interpretation of Probability and Quantum Mechanics.Karl Popper - 1974 - In P. A. Schlipp (ed.), The Philosophy of Karl Popper (Book Ii). Open Court. pp. 1125-1139.
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  27. Popper's Propensities: An Ontological Interpretation of Probability in Imre Lakatos and Theories of Scientific Change.D. Sfendoni-Mentzou - 1989 - Boston Studies in the Philosophy of Science 111:441-455.
     
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  28.  12
    Are People Programmed to Commit Fallacies? Further Thoughts About the Interpretation of Experimental Data on Probability Judgment.L. Jonathan Cohen - 1982 - Journal for the Theory of Social Behaviour 12 (3):251–274.
  29. Probability and the Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics.Arthur Fine - 1973 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 24 (1):1-37.
  30.  27
    Can There Be a Realist Single-Case Interpretation of Probability?Peter Milne - 1986 - Erkenntnis 25 (2):129 - 132.
  31.  34
    On the Interpretation of Probability Calculi Ernest Nagel.E. Beth - 1946 - Synthese 5 (1-2):92-95.
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  32. The Propensity Interpretation of the Calculus of Probability, and the Quantum Theory.Karl R. Popper - 1957 - In Stephan Körner (ed.), Observation and Interpretation. Butterworths. pp. 65--70.
  33.  8
    On the Interpretation of Probability Calculi Ernest Nagel.Ernest Nagel - 1946 - Synthese 5 (1/2):92 - 93.
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  34.  3
    Interpretation of Probability in Evolutionary Theory.Ryota Morimoto - 2009 - Kagaku Tetsugaku 42 (1):83-96.
  35. Statistical Mechanics and the Propensity Interpretation of Probability.Peter Clark - 2001 - In Jean Bricmont & Others (eds.), Chance in Physics: Foundations and Perspectives. Springer. pp. 271--81.
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  36.  29
    A Subjective Interpretation of Conditional Probability.Glenn Shafer - 1983 - Journal of Philosophical Logic 12 (4):453 - 466.
  37.  18
    Perelman's Interpretation of Reverse Probability Arguments as a Dialectical Mise En Abyme.Manfred Kraus - 2010 - Philosophy and Rhetoric 43 (4):362-382.
    Imagine the following situation: an act of violent assault has been committed. And there are only two possible suspects, of which one is a small and weak man and the other a big and strong man. The weak man will plead that he is not strong enough and therefore not likely to have committed the crime, which seems reasonable straight away. But there will also be a loophole for the strong man, as Aristotle tells us, who reports exactly that story (...)
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  38.  3
    Perelman’s Interpretation of Reverse Probability Arguments as a Dialectical Mise En Abyme.Manfred Kraus - 2010 - Philosophy and Rhetoric 43 (4):362.
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  39.  6
    Reflections on Zeilinger–Brukner Information Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics.Andrei Khrennikov - 2016 - Foundations of Physics 46 (7):836-844.
    In this short review I present my personal reflections on Zeilinger–Brukner information interpretation of quantum mechanics.In general, this interpretation is very attractive for me. However, its rigid coupling to the notion of irreducible quantum randomness is a very complicated issue which I plan to address in more detail. This note may be useful for general public interested in quantum foundations, especially because I try to analyze essentials of the information interpretation critically. This review is written in non-physicist (...)
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  40. Foundations of Probability.Rachael Briggs - forthcoming - Journal of Philosophical Logic:1-16.
    The foundations of probability are viewed through the lens of the subjectivist interpretation. This article surveys conditional probability, arguments for probabilism, probability dynamics, and the evidential and subjective interpretations of probability.
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  41.  7
    The Place of Probability in Hilbert’s Axiomatization of Physics, Ca. 1900–1928.Lukas M. Verburgt - 2016 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 53:28-44.
    Although it has become a common place to refer to the ׳sixth problem׳ of Hilbert׳s (1900) Paris lecture as the starting point for modern axiomatized probability theory, his own views on probability have received comparatively little explicit attention. The central aim of this paper is to provide a detailed account of this topic in light of the central observation that the development of Hilbert׳s project of the axiomatization of physics went hand-in-hand with a redefinition of the status of (...)
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  42. Philosophical Theories of Probability.Donald Gillies - 2000 - Routledge.
    This book presents a comprehensive and systematic account of the various philosophical theories of probability and explains how they are related. It covers the classical, logical, subjective, frequency, and propensity views of probability. Donald Gillies even provides a new theory of probability -the intersubjective-a development of the subjective theory. He argues for a pluralist view, where there can be more than one valid interpretation of probabiltiy, each appropriate in a different context. The relation of the various (...)
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  43.  6
    The Probability of Iterated Conditionals.Janneke Wijnbergen‐Huitink, Shira Elqayam & David E. Over - 2015 - Cognitive Science 39 (4):788-803.
    Iterated conditionals of the form If p, then if q, r are an important topic in philosophical logic. In recent years, psychologists have gained much knowledge about how people understand simple conditionals, but there are virtually no published psychological studies of iterated conditionals. This paper presents experimental evidence from a study comparing the iterated form, If p, then if q, r with the “imported,” noniterated form, If p and q, then r, using a probability evaluation task and a truth-table (...)
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  44.  46
    Mechanistic Probability.Marshall Abrams - 2012 - Synthese 187 (2):343-375.
    I describe a realist, ontologically objective interpretation of probability, "far-flung frequency (FFF) mechanistic probability". FFF mechanistic probability is defined in terms of facts about the causal structure of devices and certain sets of frequencies in the actual world. Though defined partly in terms of frequencies, FFF mechanistic probability avoids many drawbacks of well-known frequency theories and helps causally explain stable frequencies, which will usually be close to the values of mechanistic probabilities. I also argue that (...)
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  45.  61
    The Interference Problem for the Betting Interpretation of Degrees of Belief.Lina Eriksson & Wlodek Rabinowicz - 2013 - Synthese 190 (5):809-830.
    The paper’s target is the historically influential betting interpretation of subjective probabilities due to Ramsey and de Finetti. While there are several classical and well-known objections to this interpretation, the paper focuses on just one fundamental problem: There is a sense in which degrees of belief cannot be interpreted as betting rates. The reasons differ in different cases, but there’s one crucial feature that all these cases have in common: The agent’s degree of belief in a proposition A (...)
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  46.  3
    A Local Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics.Carlos Lopez - 2016 - Foundations of Physics 46 (4):484-504.
    A local interpretation of quantum mechanics is presented. Its main ingredients are: first, a label attached to one of the “virtual” paths in the path integral formalism, determining the output for measurement of position or momentum; second, a mathematical model for spin states, equivalent to the path integral formalism for point particles in space time, with the corresponding label. The mathematical machinery of orthodox quantum mechanics is maintained, in particular amplitudes of probability and Born’s rule; therefore, Bell’s type (...)
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    The Natural-Range Conception of Probability.Jacob Rosenthal - 2010 - In Gerhard Ernst & Andreas Hüttemann (eds.), Time, Chance and Reduction: Philosophical Aspects of Statistical Mechanics. Cambridge University Press. pp. 71--90.
    Objective interpretations of probability are usually discussed in two varieties: frequency and propensity accounts. But there is a third, neglected possibility, namely, probabilities as deriving from ranges in suitably structured initial state spaces. Roughly, the probability of an event is the proportion of initial states that lead to this event in the space of all possible initial states, provided that this proportion is approximately the same in any not too small interval of the initial state space. This idea (...)
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  48.  72
    On Schizophrenic Experiences of the Neutron or Why We Should Believe in the Many-Worlds Interpretation of Quantum Theory.Lev Vaidman - 1998 - International Studies in the Philosophy of Science 12 (3):245 – 261.
    This is a philosophical paper in favor of the many-worlds interpretation of quantum theory. The necessity of introducing many worlds is explained by analyzing a neutron interference experiment. The concept of the “measure of existence of a world” is introduced and some difficulties with the issue of probability in the framework of the MWI are resolved.
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  49.  9
    Truth, Possibility and Probability: New Logical Foundations of Probability and Statistical Inference Vol. 166.Rolando Chuaqui - 1991 - Access Online Via Elsevier.
    This unique book presents a new interpretation of probability, rooted in the traditional interpretation that was current in the 17th and 18th centuries.
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  50. The Transactional Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics.John G. Cramer - 1986 - Reviews of Modern Physics 58 (3):647-687.
    Copenhagen interpretation of quantum mechanics deals with these problems is reviewed. A new interpretation of the formalism of quantum mechanics, the transactional interpretation, is presented. The basic element of this interpretation is the transaction describing a quantum event as an exchange of advanced and retarded waves, as implied by the work of Wheeler and Feynman, Dirac, and others. The transactional interpretation is explicitly nonlocal and thereby consistent with recent tests of the Bell inequality, yet is (...)
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