Pluralistic ignorance is a socio-psychological phenomenon that involves a systematic discrepancy between people’s private beliefs and public behavior in certain social contexts. Recently, pluralistic ignorance has gained increased attention in formal and social epistemology. But to get clear on what precisely a formal and social epistemological account of pluralistic ignorance should look like, we need answers to at least the following two questions: What exactly is the phenomenon of pluralistic ignorance? And can the phenomenon arise among perfectly rational agents? In (...) this paper, we propose answers to both these questions. First, we characterize different versions of pluralistic ignorance and define the version that we claim most adequately captures the examples cited as paradigmatic cases of pluralistic ignorance in the literature. In doing so, we will stress certain key epistemic and social interactive aspects of the phenomenon. Second, given our characterization of pluralistic ignorance, we argue that the phenomenon can indeed arise in groups of perfectly rational agents. This, in turn, ensures that the tools of formal epistemology can be fully utilized to reason about pluralistic ignorance. (shrink)
This paper introduces a general logical framework for reasoning about diffusion processes within social networks. The new “Logic for Diffusion in Social Networks” is a dynamic extension of standard hybrid logic, allowing to model complex phenomena involving several properties of agents. We provide a complete axiomatization and a terminating and complete tableau system for this logic and show how to apply the framework to diffusion phenomena documented in social networks analysis.
Our beliefs and opinions are shaped by others, making our social networks crucial in determining what we believe to be true. Sometimes this is for the good because our peers help us form a more accurate opinion. Sometimes it is for the worse because we are led astray. In this context, we address via agent-based computer simulations the extent to which patterns of connectivity within our social networks affect the likelihood that initially undecided agents in a network converge on a (...) true opinion following group deliberation. The model incorporates a fine-grained and realistic representation of belief and trust, and it allows agents to consult outside information sources. We study a wide range of network structures and provide a detailed statistical analysis concerning the exact contribution of various network metrics to collective competence. Our results highlight and explain the collective risks involved in an overly networked or partitioned society. Specifically, we find that 96% of the variation in collective competence across networks can be attributed to differences in amount of connectivity and clustering, which are negatively correlated with collective competence. A study of bandwagon or “group think” effects indicates that both connectivity and clustering increase the probability that the network, wholly or partly, locks into a false opinion. Our work is interestingly related to Gerhard Schurz’s work on meta-induction and can be seen as broadly addressing a practical limitation of his approach. (shrink)
The paper discusses ten philosophical problems in deontic logic: how to formally represent norms, when a set of norms may be termed ‘coherent’, how to deal with normative conﬂicts, how contraryto-duty obligations can be appropriately modeled, how dyadic deontic operators may be redeﬁned to relate to sets of norms instead of preference relations between possible worlds, how various concepts of permission can be accommodated, how meaning postulates and counts-as conditionals can be taken into account, and how sets of norms may (...) be revised and merged. The problems are discussed from the viewpoint of input/output logic as developed by van der Torre & Makinson. We argue that norms, not ideality, should take the central position in deontic semantics, and that a semantics that represents norms, as input/output logic does, provides helpful tools for analyzing, clarifying and solving the problems of deontic logic. (shrink)
If stem cell-based therapies are developed, we will likely confront a difficult problem of justice: for biological reasons alone, the new therapies might benefit only a limited range of patients. In fact, they might benefit primarily white Americans, thereby exacerbating long-standing differences in health and health care.
When a conflict of duties arises, a resolution is often sought by use of an ordering of priority or importance. This paper examines how such a conflict resolution works, compares mechanisms that have been proposed in the literature, and gives preference to one developed by Brewka and Nebel. I distinguish between two cases – that some conflicts may remain unresolved, and that a priority ordering can be determined that resolves all – and provide semantics and axiomatic systems for accordingly defined (...) dyadic deontic operators. (shrink)
In many social contexts, social influence seems to be inescapable: the behavior of others influences us to modify ours, and vice-versa. However, social psychology is full of examples of phenomena where individuals experience a discrepancy between their public behavior and their private opinion. This raises two central questions. First, how does an individual reason about the behavior of others and their private opinions in situations of social influence? And second, what are the laws of the resulting information dynamics? In this (...) paper, we address these questions by introducing a formal framework for representing reasoning about an individual’s private opinions and public behavior under the dynamics of social influence in social networks. Moreover, we dig deeper into the involved information dynamics by modeling how individuals can learn about each other based on this reasoning. This compels us to introduce a new formal notion of reflective social influence. Finally, we initialize the work on proof theory and automated reasoning for our framework by introducing a sound and complete tableaux system for a fragment of our logic. Furthermore, this constitutes the first tableau system for the “Facebook logic” of J. Seligman, F. Liu, and P. Girard. (shrink)
We have investigated the effects of organic content and maturation on the elastic properties of source rock shales, mainly through integration of a well-log database from the Central North Sea and associated geochemical data. Our aim is to improve the understanding of how seismic properties change in source rock shales due to geologic variations and how these might manifest on seismic data in deeper, undrilled parts of basins in the area. The Tau and Draupne Formations in immature to early mature (...) stages exhibit variation mainly related to compaction and total organic carbon content. We assess the link between depth, acoustic impedance, and TOC in this setting, and we express it as an empirical relation for TOC prediction. In addition, where S-wave information is available, we combine two seismic properties and infer rock-physics trends for semiquantitative prediction of TOC from [Formula: see text] and AI. Furthermore, data from one reference well penetrating mature source rock in the southern Viking Graben indicate that a notable hydrocarbon effect can be observed as an addition to the inherently low kerogen-related velocity and density. Published Kimmeridge shale ultrasonic measurements from 3.85 to 4.02 km depth closely coincide with well-log measurements in the mature shale, indicating that upscaled log data are reasonably capturing variations in the actual rock properties. Amplitude variation with offset inversion attributes should in theory be interpreted successively in terms of compaction, TOC, and maturation with associated generation of hydrocarbons. Our compaction-consistent decomposition of these effects can be of aid in such interpretations. (shrink)
In this paper, we investigate the social herding phenomenon known as informational cascades, in which sequential inter-agent communication might lead to epistemic failures at group level, despite availability of information that should be sufficient to track the truth. We model an example of a cascade, and check the correctness of the individual reasoning of each agent involved, using two alternative logical settings: an existing probabilistic dynamic epistemic logic, and our own novel logic for counting evidence. Based on this analysis, we (...) conclude that cascades are not only likely to occur but are sometimes unavoidable by "rational" means: in some situations, the group’s inability to track the truth is the direct consequence of each agent’s rational attempt at individual truth-tracking. Moreover, our analysis shows that this is even so when rationality includes unbounded higher-order reasoning powers, as well as when it includes simpler, non-Bayesian forms of heuristic reasoning. (shrink)
We propose a new dynamic hybrid logic to reason about social networks and their dynamics building on the work of “Logic in the Community” by Seligman, Liu and Girard. Our framework distinguishes between the purely private sphere of agents, namely their mental states, and the public sphere of their observable behavior, i.e., what they seem to believe. We then show how such a distinction allows our framework to model many social phenomena, by presenting the case of pluralistic ignorance as an (...) example and discussing some of its dynamic properties. (shrink)
The discovery of Skrugard in 2011 was a significant milestone for hydrocarbon exploration in the Barents Sea. The result was a positive confirmation of the play model, prospect evaluation, and the seismic hydrocarbon indicators in the area. In addition, the well result was encouraging for the CSEM interpretation and analysis that had been performed. Prior to drilling the 7220/8-1 well, EM resistivity images of the subsurface across the prospect had been obtained along with estimates of hydrocarbon saturation at the well (...) position. The resistivity distribution was derived from extensive analysis of the multiclient CSEM data from 2008. The analysis was based on joint interpretation of seismic structures and optimal resistivity models from the CSEM data. The seismic structure was furthermore used to constrain the resistivity anomaly to the Skrugard reservoir. Scenario testing was then done to assess potential alternative models that could explain the CSEM data in addition to extract the most likely reservoir resistivity. Estimates of hydrocarbon saturation followed from using petrophysical parameters from nearby wells and knowledge of the area, combined with the most likely resistivity model from CSEM. Our results from the prewell study were compared to the postwell resistivity logs, for horizontal and vertical resistivity. We found a very good match between the estimated CSEM resistivities at the well location and the corresponding well resistivities. Thus, our results confirmed the ability of CSEM to predict hydrocarbon saturation. In addition, the work demonstrated limitations in the CSEM data analysis tools as well as sensitivity to acquisition parameters and measurement accuracy. The work has led to more CSEM data acquisition in the area and continued effort in development of our tools for data acquisition and analysis. (shrink)
Throughout the last decade, there has been an increased interest in various forms of dynamic epistemic logics to model the flow of information and the effect this flow has on knowledge in multi-agent systems. This enterprise, however, has mostly been applicationally and semantically driven. This results in a limited amount of proof theory for dynamic epistemic logics. In this paper, we try to compensate for a part of this by presenting terminating tableau systems for full dynamic epistemic logic with action (...) models and for a hybrid public announcement logic. The tableau systems are extensions of already existing tableau systems, in addition to which we have used the reduction axioms of dynamic epistemic logic to define rules for the dynamic part of the logics. Termination is shown using methods introduced by Braüner, Bolander, and Blackburn. (shrink)
Restrictions on research on therapeutic cloning are questionable as they inhibit the development of a technique which holds promise for succesful application of pluripotent stem cells in clinical treatment of severe diseases. It is argued in this article that the ethical concerns are less problematic using therapeutic cloning compared with using fertilised eggs as the source for stem cells. The moral status of an enucleated egg cell transplanted with a somatic cell nucleus is found to be more clearly not equivalent (...) to that of a human being. Based on ethical considerations alone, research into therapeutic cloning should be encouraged in order to develop therapeutic applications of stem cells. (shrink)
In what follows, I offer some friendly amendments to Potter’s psychotherapeutic model—‘the hinge narrative’ (HN)—designed to help bipolar patients cultivate self-trust. My primary contribution is to suggest an alliance between narrative theory and feminist phenomenological theories of embodiment. I argue that these projects are mutually supporting in both the metaphysical and therapeutic project of constituting a rich moral self, that is, a self who has self-trust and thereby satisfying relationships with others. I also register a slight disagreement with Potter concerning (...) the effect that bipolar illness has on agency. Potter claims that with conventional narratives patients have difficulty perceiving .. (shrink)
In a series of articles, P. Vranas recently proposed a new imperative logic. The strong and weak inferences of this logic are motivated by an appeal to a strong and weak ‘support by reasons’ that transfers from the premisses of an argument to its conclusion. They also combine nonmonotonic and monotonic reasoning patterns. I show that for any moral agent, Vranas’s proposal can be simplified enormously.
This paper introduces a logic to reason about a well-known model of opinion dynamics in socialnetworks initially developed by Morris DeGroot as well as Keith Lehrer and Carl Wagner. The proposed logic is an extension of Lukasiewicz' famous fuzzy logic with additional equational expressivity, modal operators, machinery from hybrid logic, and dynamic modalities. The model of opinion dynamics in social networks is simple enough to be easily grasped, but still complex enough to have interesting mathematical properties and applications. Thus, developing (...) a logic to reason about this particular model serves as a paradigmatic example of how logic can be useful in social network analysis. (shrink)
Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) is a tortured concept. In this paper, we reframe CSR into a number of discrete Corporate Social Responsibilities (CSR’s), each of which can have a positive or negative social impact, and each of which has an endogenous managerially driven component, and an exogenous stakeholder driven component. Using an industry-level sample drawn from the KLD data base, we test the impact of hypothesized drivers of CSR on various CSR’s.
There is a sense in which antidepressants are feminist drugs, liberating and empowering …A lot of things have been said about Prozac.1 We have been instructed both to "listen" and to "talk back" to Prozac (Kramer 1993; Breggin 1994), Prozac has been called a wonder drug (Schumer 1989; Cowley 1990), it has been described as capable of dramatically changing selves and dramatically changing our conception of what a self is (Kramer 1993), it has been accused of dulling our artistic drive (...) (Berlin 2008), of diminishing our authenticity (Elliott 2000) and has been called a modern-day Soma, à la Brave New World (Weisberger 1995, 72; PCBE 2003, 258). It has also been called a "feminist drug." It is this last claim that we .. (shrink)
``Pluralistic ignorance'' is a phenomenon mainly studied in social psychology. Viewed as an epistemic phenomenon, one way to define it is as a situation where ``no one believes, but everyone believes that everyone else believes''. In this paper various versions of pluralistic ignorance are formalized using epistemic/doxastic logic. The motive is twofold. Firstly, the formalizations are used to show that the various versions of pluralistic ignorance are all consistent, thus there is nothing in the phenomenon that necessarily goes against logic. (...) Secondly, pluralistic ignorance, is on many occasions, assumed to be fragile. In this paper, however, it is shown that pluralistic ignorance need not be fragile to announcements of the agents' beliefs. Hence, to dissolve pluralistic ignorance in general, something more than announcements of the subjective views of the agents is needed. Finally, suggestions to further research are outlined. (shrink)
We present a logic which we call Hybrid Duration Calculus. HDC is obtained by adding the following hybrid logical machinery to the Restricted Duration Calculus : nominals, satisfaction operators, down-arrow binder, and the global modality. RDC is known to be decidable, and in this paper we show that decidability is retained when adding the hybrid logical machinery. Decidability of HDC is shown by reducing the satisfiability problem to satisfiability of Monadic Second-Order Theory of Order. We illustrate the increased expressive power (...) obtained in hybridizing RDC by showing that HDC, in contrast to RDC, can express all of the 13 possible relations between intervals. (shrink)
In this paper the machinery of Hybrid Logic and the logic of public announcements are merged. In order to bring the two logics together properly the underlying hybrid logic has been changed such that nominals only partially denote states. The hybrid logic contains nominals, satisfaction operators, the downarrow binder as well as the global modality. Following this, an axiom system for the Hybrid Public Announcement Logic is presented and using reduction axioms general completeness is proved. The general completeness allows for (...) an easy way of adding distributed knowledge. Furthermore, it turns out that distributed knowledge is definable using satisfaction operators and the downarrow binder. (shrink)
In this paper a first-order version of hybrid logic is presented. The language is obtained by adding nominals, satisfaction operators and the down-arrow binder to classical first-order modal logic. The satisfaction operators are applied to both formulas and terms. Moreover adding the universal modality is discussed. This first-order hybrid language is interpreted over varying domains and a sound and complete, fully internalized tableau system for this logic is given.