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Jean Baratgin
Université Paris 8 (Alumnus)
  1. Uncertainty and the de Finetti Tables.Jean Baratgin, David E. Over & Guy Politzer - 2013 - Thinking and Reasoning 19 (3-4):308-328.
    The new paradigm in the psychology of reasoning adopts a Bayesian, or prob- abilistic, model for studying human reasoning. Contrary to the traditional binary approach based on truth functional logic, with its binary values of truth and falsity, a third value that represents uncertainty can be introduced in the new paradigm. A variety of three-valued truth table systems are available in the formal literature, including one proposed by de Finetti. We examine the descriptive adequacy of these systems for natural language (...)
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  2. Betting on Conditionals.Jean Baratgin, David E. Over & Guy Politzer - 2010 - Thinking and Reasoning 16 (3):172-197.
    A study is reported testing two hypotheses about a close parallel relation between indicative conditionals, if A then B , and conditional bets, I bet you that if A then B . The first is that both the indicative conditional and the conditional bet are related to the conditional probability, P(B|A). The second is that de Finetti's three-valued truth table has psychological reality for both types of conditional— true , false , or void for indicative conditionals and win , lose (...)
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  3.  11
    Bayesian Reasoning with Ifs and Ands and Ors.Nicole Cruz, Jean Baratgin, Mike Oaksford & David E. Over - 2015 - Frontiers in Psychology 6.
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  4. Updating: A Psychologically Basic Situation of Probability Revision.Jean Baratgin & Guy Politzer - 2010 - Thinking and Reasoning 16 (4):253-287.
    The Bayesian model has been used in psychology as the standard reference for the study of probability revision. In the first part of this paper we show that this traditional choice restricts the scope of the experimental investigation of revision to a stable universe. This is the case of a situation that, technically, is known as focusing. We argue that it is essential for a better understanding of human probability revision to consider another situation called updating (Katsuno & Mendelzon, 1992), (...)
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  5.  25
    Deductive Schemas with Uncertain Premises Using Qualitative Probability Expressions.Guy Politzer & Jean Baratgin - 2016 - Thinking and Reasoning 22 (1):78-98.
    ABSTRACTThe new paradigm in the psychology of reasoning redirects the investigation of deduction conceptually and methodologically because the premises and the conclusion of the inferences are assumed to be uncertain. A probabilistic counterpart of the concept of logical validity and a method to assess whether individuals comply with it must be defined. Conceptually, we used de Finetti's coherence as a normative framework to assess individuals' performance. Methodologically, we presented inference schemas whose premises had various levels of probability that contained non-numerical (...)
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  6.  33
    The New Paradigm and Mental Models.Jean Baratgin, Igor Douven, Jonathan StB. T. Evans, Mike Oaksford, David Over & Guy Politzer - 2015 - Trends in Cognitive Sciences 19 (10):547-548.
  7. Betting on Conditionals.Guy Politzer, David P. Over & Jean Baratgin - 2010 - Thinking and Reasoning 16 (3):172-197.
    A study is reported testing two hypotheses about a close parallel relation between indicative conditionals, if A then B, and conditional bets, I bet you that if A then B. The first is that both the indicative conditional and the conditional bet are related to the conditional probability, P(B|A). The second is that de Finetti's three-valued truth table has psychological reality for both types of conditional – true, false, or void for indicative conditionals and win, lose or void for conditional (...)
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  8.  23
    The Psychology of Uncertainty and Three-Valued Truth Tables.Jean Baratgin, Guy Politzer, David E. Over & Tatsuji Takahashi - 2018 - Frontiers in Psychology 9.
    Psychological research on people’s understanding of natural language connectives has traditionally used truth table tasks, in which participants evaluate the truth or falsity of a compound sentence given the truth or falsity of its components in the framework of propositional logic. One perplexing result concerned the indicative conditional if A then C which was often evaluated as true when A and C are true, false when A is true and C is false but irrelevant“ (devoid of value) when A is (...)
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  9.  91
    Is the Mind Bayesian? The Case for Agnosticism.Jean Baratgin & Guy Politzer - 2006 - Mind and Society 5 (1):1-38.
    This paper aims to make explicit the methodological conditions that should be satisfied for the Bayesian model to be used as a normative model of human probability judgment. After noticing the lack of a clear definition of Bayesianism in the psychological literature and the lack of justification for using it, a classic definition of subjective Bayesianism is recalled, based on the following three criteria: an epistemic criterion, a static coherence criterion and a dynamic coherence criterion. Then it is shown that (...)
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  10.  30
    Rationality, the Bayesian Standpoint, and the Monty-Hall Problem.Jean Baratgin - 2015 - Frontiers in Psychology 6.
  11.  24
    Understanding Conditionals in the East: A Replication Study of Politzer Et Al. With Easterners.Hiroko Nakamura, Jing Shao, Jean Baratgin, David E. Over, Tatsuji Takahashi & Hiroshi Yama - 2018 - Frontiers in Psychology 9.
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  12. Sleeping Beauty and the Absent-Minded Driver.Jean Baratgin & Bernard Walliser - 2010 - Theory and Decision 69 (3):489-496.
    The Sleeping Beauty problem is presented in a formalized framework which summarizes the underlying probability structure. The two rival solutions proposed by Elga and Lewis differ by a single parameter concerning her prior probability. They can be supported by considering, respectively, that Sleeping Beauty is “fuzzy-minded” and “blank-minded”, the first interpretation being more natural than the second. The traditional absent -minded driver problem is reinterpreted in this framework and sustains Elga’s solution.
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  13.  16
    Corrigendum: Bayesian Reasoning with Ifs and Ands and Ors.Nicole Cruz, Jean Baratgin, Mike Oaksford & David E. Over - 2015 - Frontiers in Psychology 6.
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  14.  15
    The Psychology of Dynamic Probability Judgment: Order Effect, Normative Theories, and Experimental Methodology.Jean Baratgin & Guy Politzer - 2007 - Mind and Society 6 (1):53-66.
    The Bayesian model is used in psychology as the reference for the study of dynamic probability judgment. The main limit induced by this model is that it confines the study of revision of degrees of belief to the sole situations of revision in which the universe is static (revising situations). However, it may happen that individuals have to revise their degrees of belief when the message they learn specifies a change of direction in the universe, which is considered as changing (...)
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  15. The Psychology of Indicative Conditionals and Conditional Bets.Jean Baratgin, G. Politzer & D. P. Over - unknown
    There is a new Bayesian, or probabilistic, paradigm in the psychology of reasoning, with new psychological accounts of the indicative conditional of natural language. In psychological experiments in this new paradigm, people judge that the probability of the indicative conditional, P(if A then C), is the conditional probability of C given A, P(C | A). In other experiments, participants respond with what has been called the 'de- fective' truth table: they judge that if A then C is true when A (...)
     
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  16.  8
    Cooperation in Online Conversations: The Response Times as a Window Into the Cognition of Language Processing.Baptiste Jacquet, Jean Baratgin & Frank Jamet - 2019 - Frontiers in Psychology 10.
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  17.  24
    Dual Frames for Causal Induction: The Normative and the Heuristic.Ikuko Hattori, Masasi Hattori, David E. Over, Tatsuji Takahashi & Jean Baratgin - 2017 - Thinking and Reasoning 23 (3):292-317.
    Causal induction in the real world often has to be quick and efficient as well as accurate. We propose that people use two different frames to achieve these goals. The A-frame consists of heuristic processes that presuppose rarity and can detect causally relevant factors quickly. The B-frame consists of analytic processes that can be highly accurate in detecting actual causes. Our dual frame theory implies that several factors affect whether people use the A-frame or the B-frame in causal induction: among (...)
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  18. Base Rate Neglect: A Focus on the Methodology of the Engineer-Lawyer Paradigm.Jean Baratgin - 2002 - In Serge P. Shohov (ed.), Advances in Psychology Research. Nova Science Publishers. pp. 183--198.
     
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  19.  14
    Cycles of Maximin and Utilitarian Policies Under the Veil of Ignorance.Darya V. Filatova, Sacha Bourgeois-Gironde, Jean Baratgin, Frank Jamet & Jing Shao - 2016 - Mind and Society 15 (1):105-116.
    A conceptual and mathematical model of a social community behavior in a choice situation under a veil of ignorance, where two alternative policies—Rawlsian maximin and Harsanyian utilitarianism—can be implemented through the aggregation of individual preferences over these two policies, is constructed and investigated. We first incorporate in our conceptual model psychological features such as risk-aversion and prosocial preferences that likely underlie choices of welfare policies. We secondly develop and select the mathematical model presented it by means of an autonomous system (...)
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