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  1.  52
    Keynesian Uncertainty and the Weight of Arguments.Jochen Runde - 1990 - Economics and Philosophy 6 (2):275.
    In Chapter 12 of the General Theory, on “The State of Long-Term Expectation,” Keynes writes: “It would be foolish, in forming our expectations, to attach great weight to matters which are very uncertain”. In a footnote to this sentence, Keynes points out that by “very uncertain” he does not mean the same as “very improbable” and refers to the chapter on “The Weight of Arguments” in his earlier Treatise on Probability. The purpose of this article, in the first place, is (...)
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  2.  55
    Keynes After Ramsey: In Defence of a Treatise on Probability.Jochen Runde - 1994 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 25 (1):97-121.
    Ramsey's critique of Keynes's ‘logical’ approach to probability is widely regarded as decisive, and his own ‘subjective’ approach and SEU framework are now familiar tools in economics. This paper challenges the standard view of Ramsey's critique and assesses the SEU model from a Keynesian viewpoint on probability. It consists of a summary of the two theories and an evaluation of Ramsey's criticisms and alternative. The two main conclusions are that although Keynes yields to Ramsey on the question of the existence (...)
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  3.  31
    Dissecting the Black Swan.Jochen Runde - 2009 - Critical Review 21 (4):491-505.
    ABSTRACT What constitutes a Black Swan? And under what conditions may a Black Swan be expected to arise? As Nassim Taleb describes it, a Black Swan is an event that displays three key properties, the two most important of which are that: (1) it is not even imagined as a possibility prior to its occurrence; and (2) it is in some way significant in its impact. It follows that whether or not an event counts as a Black Swan depends on (...)
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  4.  7
    Dissecting The Black Swan.Jochen Runde - 2009 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 21 (4):491-505.
    What constitutes a Black Swan? And under what conditions may a Black Swan be expected to arise? As Nassim Taleb describes it, a Black Swan is an event that displays three key properties, the two most important of which are that: it is not even imagined as a possibility prior to its occurrence; and it is in some way significant in its impact. It follows that whether or not an event counts as a Black Swan depends on the subjective imaginings (...)
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  5. Keynesian Uncertainty and Liquidity Preference.Jochen Runde - 1994 - Cambridge Journal of Economics 18:129--144.
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  6.  15
    Filling in the Background.Jochen Runde - 2002 - Journal of Economic Methodology 9 (1):11-30.
    Commonsense rational choice explanations exploit a form of intentional causation, an idealized version of which underpins the formal rational modelling of modern economic theory. Following John Searle, it is argued that the deliberations and activities of economic actors do not bottom out in intentional states, but in various nonintentional or 'Background' capacities and dispositions. It is shown why the formal version of rational choice theory employed in economics does not have the resources to address such capacities and dispositions, and that (...)
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  7. 21 Information, Knowledge and Modelling Economic Agency.Philip Faulkner & Jochen Runde - 2004 - In John Bryan Davis & Alain Marciano (eds.), The Elgar Companion to Economics and Philosophy. Edward Elgar. pp. 423.
  8.  13
    Paul Davidson and the Austrians: Reply to Davidson.Jochen Runde - 1993 - Ethic@ 7 (2-3):381-397.
    Paul Davidson's critique of O'Driscoll and Rizzo is based on an “official” philosophical position that turns on an opposition between knowledge and ignorance and a corresponding opposition between ergodic and nonergodic processes. But Davidson's substantive analysis reveals a very different “unofficial” position, based on “sensible expectations” and a realist ontology of enduring social structures. While O'Driscoll and Rizzo have the edge on Davidson in terms of their characterization of agents’ beliefs, their ontology of event regularities is ultimately the same, and (...)
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  9.  44
    Chances and Choices.Jochen Runde - 1995 - The Monist 78 (3):330-351.
    A recurring theme in discussions about the uncertainties of belief is their connection with the uncertainties of chance. Economists, broadly speaking, fall into two groups on this issue. One holds that beliefs can only be taken to correspond to point probabilities in situations that approximate games of chance. The other holds that beliefs should be treated as point probabilities, entering economics via decision theory and emerging as the parameters of consistent choice. I shall call these the traditional view and the (...)
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  10.  6
    No Title Available: Reviews.Jochen Runde - 1995 - Economics and Philosophy 11 (2):379-385.
  11.  14
    Paradigms and Conventions, Choi Young Back. The University of Michigan Press, 1994, Ix + 175 Pages. [REVIEW]Jochen Runde - 1995 - Economics and Philosophy 11 (2):379.
  12.  7
    Special Issue on Rationality and Methodology.Jochen Runde & Paul Anand - 1997 - Journal of Economic Methodology 4 (1):1-21.
  13.  3
    Chances and Choices: Some Notes on Probability and Belief in Economic Theory.Jochen Runde - 1995 - The Monist 78 (3):330-351.
    Examines ontological presuppositions that inform traditional and Bayesian positions on the uncertainties of belief in economic theory. D. Knight and J.M. Keynes’ views on the risks and uncertainties in economics; Reasons for the popularity of the Bayesian view in modern economic theory.
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  14. Rationality and Methodology: Symposium.Paul Anand & Jochen Runde - 1997 - Journal of Economic Methodology 4 (1).