99 found
Order:
Disambiguations
Leonid Grinin [97]Leonid E. Grinin [2]
See also
Leonid Grinin
National Research University Higher School of Economics
  1. Forthcoming Kondratieff Wave, Cybernetic Revolution, and Global Ageing.Leonid Grinin, Anton Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2017 - Technological Forecasting and Social Change 115:52-68.
    In the present article we analyze the relationships between K-waves and major technological breakthroughs in history and offer forecasts about features of the sixth Kondratieff wave. We use for our analysis the basic ideas of long cycles' theory and related theories (theories of the leading sector, technological styles etc.) as well as the ideas of our own theory of production principles and production revolutions. The latest of production revolution is the Cybernetic Revolution that, from our point of view, started in (...)
    Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  2. Global History and Future World Order.Leonid Grinin, Ilya Il'in & Alexey Andreev - 2016 - Globalistics and Globalization Studies:93-110.
    The present article analyzes the world order in the past, present and future as well as the main factors, foundations and ideas underlying the maintaining and change of the international and global order. The first two sections investigate the evolution of the world order starting from the ancient times up to the late twentieth century. The third section analyzes the origin and decline of the world order based on the American hegemony. The authors reveal the contradictions of the current unipolar (...)
    Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  3.  29
    Модернизация и социально-политические кризисы.Leonid Grinin - 2018 - In Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev (eds.), Кондратьевские волны: к 125-летию со дня рождения Н. Д. Кондратьева: ежегодник. Volgograd: Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 86-115.
    Тема государства и государственности – одна из важнейших в социальных науках. В этом плане можно считать неслучайным рост интереса к такому аспекту, как национальное или государ-ственное строительство в молодых государствах, а также к про-блеме так называемых несостоявшихся или недееспособных госу-дарств (failed states). Эти вопросы важно рассматривать не толь-ко в современном аспекте, но также в исторической ретроспективе и в широком, мир-системном масштабе. В настоящей статье данные проблемы рассматриваются в различных аспектах, масштабах и ракурсах.
    Direct download (2 more)  
    Translate
     
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  4.  28
    Global Population Ageing, the Sixth Kondratieff Wave, and the Global Financial System.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2016 - Journal of Globalization Studies 7 (2):11-31.
    Concerns about population ageing apply to both developed and many developing countries and it has turned into a global issue. In the forthcoming decades the population ageing is likely to become one of the most important processes determining the future society characteristics and the direction of technological development. The present paper analyzes some aspects of the population ageing and its important consequences for particular societies and the whole world. Basing on this analysis, we can draw a conclusion that the future (...)
    Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography   1 citation  
  5.  44
    Akamatsu Waves.Leonid Grinin, Arno Tausch & Andrey Korotayev - 2017 - Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics:1-16.
    In 1937, the Japanese economist Kaname Akamatsu discovered specific links between the rise and decline of the global peripheries. Akamatsu’s theory of development describes certain mechanisms whose working results in the narrowing of the gap between the level of development of the economy of developing and developed countries, and, thus, in the re-structuring of the relationships between the global core and the global periphery. Akamatsu developed his model on the basis of his analysis of the economic development of Japan before (...)
    Direct download  
    Translate
     
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  6.  21
    Русская революция и ее влияние на изменение исторического процесса.Leonid Grinin - 2018 - Философия И Общество (2):5-24.
    Революционные события 1917–1920 гг. в России не только потрясли мир в момент их совершения, но и существенно, даже круто изменили его, причем это влияние в течение десятилетий возрастало. Социали-стическая революция в России вызвала мощный резонанс в мире, стала новым направлением развития. Речь идет не только о силе примера, о повторении события в других обществах. Ее воздействие и шире, и глубже. Она существенно изменила систему мирового порядка в ХХ в. В статье рассмотрен аспект данного влияния на трансформацию миро-вого порядка в разные (...)
    Direct download (2 more)  
    Translate
     
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  7.  42
    Economic Development, Sociopolitical Destabilization and Inequality.Leonid Grinin, Andrey Korotayev, Kira Meshcherina, Stanislav Bilyuga & Alisa Shishkina - 2017 - Russian Sociological Review 16 (3):9-35.
    In the 1960s Mancur Olson and Samuel Huntington suggested that the positive correlation between per capita income and the level of sociopolitical destabilization that they detected for low and middle income countries might be partly accounted for by the growth of the inequality associated with the economic and technological development in these countries. The empirical tests we perform generally support this hypothesis, but they also identify certain limits for such an explanation. Our tests reveal for low and middle income countries (...)
    Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  8.  58
    Дефляция как болезнь современных развитых стран.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2015 - In Анализ и моделирование мировой и страновой динамики: методология и базовые модели. Moscow,Russia: Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 241-270.
    В последние два-три года среди многочислен- ных проблем в отношении европейской и американской экономики все чаще стала упоминаться опасность дефляции. При этом в каче- стве примера рассматривается японская экономика, которая уже два десятилетия страдает от дефляции, несмотря на огромные раз- меры финансовых вливаний и усилия правительства разогнать ин- фляцию. В западных экономиках инфляция также низкая, времена- ми нулевая, переходящая в дефляцию. В целом есть основания счи- тать, что страны Европы заболевают «японской болезнью», а также что эта «болезнь» может прогрессировать либо (...)
    Direct download  
    Translate
     
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  9.  40
    World Order in the Past, Present, and Future.Leonid Grinin, Alexey Andreev & Ilya Illin - 2016 - Social EvolutionandHistory 15 (1):58-84.
    The present article analyzes the world order in the past, present and future as well as the main factors, foundations and ideas underlying the maintaining and change of the international and global order. The first two sections investigate the evolution of the world order starting from the ancient times up to the late twentieth century. The third section analyzes the origin and decline of the world order based on the American hegemony. The authors reveal the contradictions of the current unipolar (...)
    Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  10.  37
    The Sixth Kondratieff Wave and the Cybernetic Revolution.Leonid Grinin & Anton Grinin - 2016 - Globalistics and Globalization Studies:337-355.
    In the present paper, on the basis of the theory of production principles and production revolutions, we reveal the interrelation between K-waves and major technological breakthroughs in history and make forecasts about features of the sixth Kondratieff wave in the light of the Cybernetic Revolution that, from our point of view, started in the 1950s. We assume that the sixth K-wave in the 2030s and 2040s will merge with the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution (which we call a phase (...)
    Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  11.  34
    Global Technological Perspectives in the Light of Cybernetic Revolution and Theory of Long Cycles.Leonid Grinin & Anton Grinin - 2015 - Journal of Globalization Studies 6 (2):119-142.
    In the present paper, on the basis of the theory of production principles and production revolutions, we reveal the interrelation between K-waves and major technological breakthroughs in history and make some predictions about features of the sixth Kondratieff wave in the light of the Cybernetic Revolution which, we think, started in the 1950s. We assume that the sixth K-wave in the 2030s and 2040s will merge with the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution (which we call the phase of self-regulating (...)
    Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography   1 citation  
  12. Will the Global Crisis Lead to Global Transformations? 2. The Coming Epoch of New Coalitions.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2010 - Journal of Globalization Studies 1 (2):166-183.
    This article presents possible answers, and their respective probabilities, to the question, ‘What are the consequences of the present global crisis in the proximate future of the World System?’ It also attempts to describe the basic characteristics of the forthcoming ‘Epoch of New Coalitions’ and to forecast certain future conditions. Among the problems analyzed in this paper are the following: What does the weakening of the economic role of the USA as the World System centre mean? Will there be a (...)
    Direct download (2 more)  
    Translate
     
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography   4 citations  
  13.  33
    The MANBRIC-Technologies in the Forthcoming Technological Revolution.Leonid Grinin, Anton Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2017 - Industry 4.0 - Entrepreneurship and Structural Change in the New Digital Landscape: What is Coming on Along with the Fourth Industrial Revolution:243-261.
    In this chapter, we analyze the relationship between Kondratieff waves and major technological revolutions on the basis of the theory of production principles and production revolutions, and offer some forecasts about the features of the Sixth Kondratieff Wave/the Fourth Industrial Revolution. We show that the technological breakthrough of the Sixth Kondratieff Wave may be interpreted as both the Fourth Industrial Revolution and as the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution. We assume that the sixth K-wave in the 2030s and 2040s (...)
    Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  14.  32
    Revolution and Democracy: Sociopolitical Systems in the Context of Modernisation.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2016 - Cejiss 3:110-130.
    The stability of socio-political systems and the risks of destabilisation in the process of political transformation are among the most important issues of social development; the transition to democracy may pose a serious threat to the stability of a respective socio-political system. This article studies the issue of democratisation. It highlights the high economic and social costs of a rapid transition to democracy for countries unprepared for it—democracy resulting from revolutions or similar large-scale events. The authors believe that in a (...)
    Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  15.  54
    State and Socio-Political Crises in the Process of Modernization.Leonid Grinin - 2013 - Social Evolution and History 12 (2):35-76.
    This article starts with a brief analysis of the causes of state collapse as states undergo the process of political evolution. Next, I describe and analyze the mechanisms of social-political crises arising in the process of modernization. Such crises are a consequence of the inability of many traditional institutions and ideologies to keep up with changes in technology, communication, system of education, medical sphere, and with the demographic change. This analysis suggests that an accelerated development can cause a system crisis (...)
    Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  16.  27
    World Order Transformation and Sociopolitical Destabilization.Leonid Grinin, Andrey Korotayev, Leonid Issaev, Alisa Shishkina, Evgeny Ivanov & Kira Meshcherina - 2017 - Basic Research Program: Working Papers.
    The present working paper analyzes the world order in the past, present and future as well as the main factors, foundations and ideas underlying the maintaining and change of the international and global order. The first two sections investigate the evolution of the world order starting from the ancient times up to the late twentieth century. The third section analyzes the origin and decline of the world order based on the American hegemony. The authors reveal contradictions of the current unipolar (...)
    Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  17.  34
    Глобальное Старение Населения, Шестой Технологический Уклад И Мировая Финансовая Система.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2015 - In Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev (eds.), История и математика: футурологические и методологические аспекты. Volgograd,Russia: Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 31-56.
    Процесс старения населения захватил не только развитые страны, но и многие развивающиеся, превратившись в глобальный. Представляется, что он будет одним из самых важных процессов в ближайшие десятилетия, определяющим облик общества буду-щего и направление развития технологий. В статье дается анализ некоторых параметров процесса старения населения, показаны его важные следствия для общества и мира в целом. На основании этого анализа делается вывод о том, что грядущий технологиче-ский переворот (обозначаемый авторами как завершающая фаза кибернетической революции) и предполагаемый шестой техноло-гический уклад, связанный с наступающей (...)
    Direct download  
    Translate
     
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  18.  42
    Globalization and the World System Evolution.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2013 - Evolution: Development Within Different Paradigms 6 (11):30-68.
    The formation of the Afroeurasian world-system was one of the crucial points of social evolution, starting from which the social evolution rate and effective-ness increased dramatically. In the present article we analyze processes and scales of global integration in historical perspective, starting with the Agrarian Revolution. We connect the main phases of historical globalization with the processes of development of the Afroeurasian world-system. In the framework of the Afroeurasian world-system the integration began a few thousand years Before the Common Era. (...)
    Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  19.  42
    Urbanization and Political Development of the World System.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2013 - Entelequia 15:197-255.
    Section 1 of this article presents a mathematical analysis of the longterm global urbanization dynamics and demonstrates that it could be described as a series of phase transitions between attraction basins. This makes it possible to suggest new approaches to the analysis of global social macroevolution. Section 2 presents a threestage model of the macroevolution of the World System statehood (early – developed – mature state) that, we believe, describes the main features of political macroevolution better than the twostage model (...)
    Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  20.  32
    Modeling of Biological and Social Phases of Big History.Leonid Grinin, Andrey V. Korotayev & Alexander V. Markov - 2015 - In Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev (eds.), Evolution: From Big Bang to Nanorobots. Volgograd,Russia: Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 111-150.
    In the first part of this article we survey general similarities and differences between biological and social macroevolution. In the second (and main) part, we consider a concrete mathematical model capable of describing important features of both biological and social macroevolution. In mathematical models of historical macrodynamics, a hyperbolic pattern of world population growth arises from non-linear, second-order positive feedback between demographic growth and technological development. Based on diverse paleontological data and an analogy with macrosociological models, we suggest that the (...)
    Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  21.  32
    The Cybernetic Revolution and Historical Process.Leonid Grinin & Anton Grinin - 2015 - Social Evolution and History 14 (1):125-184.
    The article analyzes the technological shifts which took place in the second half of the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries and predict the main shifts in the next half a century. On the basis of the analysis of the latest achievements in medicine, bio- and nanotechnologies, robotics, ICT and other technological directions and also on the basis of the opportunities provided by the theory of production revolutions the authors present a detailed analysis of the latest production revolution which is denoted (...)
    No categories
    Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  22.  32
    Will the Explosive Growth of China Continue?Leonid Grinin, Sergey Tsirel & Andrey Korotayev - 2015 - Technological Forecasting and Social Change 95:394-308.
    The role of China in the world economy is constantly growing. In particular we observe that it plays more and more important role in the support of theworld economic growth (as well as high prices of certain very important commodities). In the meantime the perspectives of the Chinese economy (as well as possible fates of the Chinese society) remain unclear, whereas respective forecasts look rather contradictory. That is why the search for new aspects and modes of analysis of possible development (...)
    Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  23.  40
    On Similarities Between Biological and Social Evolutionary Mechanisms: Mathematical Modeling.Leonid Grinin - 2013 - Cliodynamics: The Journal of Theoretical and Mathematical History 4:185-228.
    In the first part of this article we survey general similarities and differences between biological and social macroevolution. In the second (and main) part, we consider a concrete mathematical model capable of describing important features of both biological and social macroevolution. In mathematical models of historical macrodynamics, a hyperbolic pattern of world population growth arises from non-linear, second-order positive feedback between demographic growth and technological development. This is more or less identical with the working of the collective learning mechanism. Based (...)
    Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  24.  23
    Cyclical Dynamics in Economics and Politics in the Past and in the Future.Leonid Grinin, Tessaleno C. Devezas & Andrey V. Korotayev - 2014 - In Kondratieff Waves. Juglar – Kuznets – Kondratieff. Volgograd,Russia: Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 5-24.
    Nikolay Kondratieff is known primarily for his theory of long cycles. However, it is worth recalling that he was among the first who started to investigate the nature of different economic cycles and their systematic interaction. Actually the primary classification of cycles into short, medium and long belongs to Kondratieff.
    Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  25.  16
    Cybernetic Revolution and Forthcoming Technological Transformations (The Development of the Leading Technologies in the Light of the Theory of Production Revolutions).Leonid Grinin & Anton Grinin - 2015 - In Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev (eds.), Evolution: From Big Bang to Nanorobots. Volgograd,Russia: Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 251-330.
    The article analyzes the technological shifts which took place in the second half of the 20th and early 21st centuries and forecasts the main shifts in the next half a century. On the basis of the analysis of the latest achievements in inno-vative technological directions and also on the basis of the opportunities pro-vided by the theory of production revolutions the authors present a detailed analysis of the latest production revolution which is denoted as ‘Сybernetic’. The authors give some forecasts (...)
    Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography   1 citation  
  26.  31
    Исторические и геополитические причины социально-политического кризиса на Украине.Leonid Grinin - 2015 - История И Современность 2:3-44.
    Проблема социально-политического кризиса на Украине комплексная. Для анализа современного кризиса необходимо использовать различные методы и теории. В настоящей статье для определения исторических и геоисторических причин современного кризиса активно использованы ис-торико-генетический и историко-сравнительный методы. Многие на первый взгляд труднообъяснимые и откровенно негативные особенности внешней и внутренней политики современной Украины в значительной степени связаны с геополитическими и историческими особенностями формирования государства, менталитета и традициями социально-политической психологии. Очевидно также, что многие отрицательно воздействующие на стабильность государства геополитические и гео-культурные факторы прошлого не утратили своего (...)
    Direct download  
    Translate
     
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  27.  22
    The Processes of Systemic Integration in the World System.Leonid Grinin - 2017 - Journal of Globalization Studies 8 (1):97-118.
    The paper discusses some aspects of integration of different regions and societies in the course of historical globalization. Within historical globalization one can observe a close correlation between such important processes as technological transformations, urbanization, political integration, struggle for political hegemony, etc. In the paper we analyze these correlations to associate historical globalization with phases of expansion. Within the expansion process we point out seven levels from the local level through the planetary one. The most significant changes were associated with (...)
    Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  28.  21
    Interaction Between Kondratieff Waves and Juglar Cycles.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2014 - In Kondratieff Waves. Juglar – Kuznets – Kondratieff. Volgograd, Russia: Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 25-95.
    Some important correlations between medium-term economic cycles (7–11 years) known as Juglar cycles and long (40–60 years) Kondratieff cycles are presented in this paper. The research into the history of this issue shows that this aspect is insufficiently studied. Meanwhile, in our opinion, it can significantly clarify both the reasons of alternation of upswing and downswing phases in K-waves and the reasons of relative stability of the length of these waves. It also can provide the certain means for forecasting. The (...)
    Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  29.  29
    Globalization Shuffles Cards of the World Pack: In Which Direction is the Global Economic-Political Balance Shifting?Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2014 - World Futures 70 (8):515-545.
    The article offers forecasts of the geopolitical and geo-economic development of the world in the forthcoming decades. One of the main accusations directed toward globalization is that it deepens the gap between the developed and developing countries dooming them to eternal backwardness. The article demonstrates that the actual situation is very different. It is shown that this is due to the globalization that the developing countries are generally growing much faster than the developed states, the World System core starts weakening (...)
    Direct download (4 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography   2 citations  
  30.  35
    Macroevolution of Technology.Leonid Grinin & Anton Grinin - 2013 - Evolution: Development Within Different Paradigms 6 (11):143-178.
    What determines the transition of a society from one level of development to another? One of the most fundamental causes is the global technological transformations. Among all major technological breakthroughs in history the most important are the three production revolutions: 1) the Agrarian Revolution; 2) the Industrial Revolution and 3) the Scientific-Information Revolution which will transform into the Cybernetic one. The article introduces the Theory of Production Revolutions. This is a new explanatory paradigm which is of value when analyzing causes (...)
    Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  31.  20
    A Trap at the Escape From the Trap? Some Demographic Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modernizing Social Systems.Leonid Grinin, Andrey V. Korotayev & Sergey Yu Malkov - 2014 - In History & Mathematics: Trends and Cycles. Volgograd, Russia: Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 201-267.
    The escape from the ‘Malthusian trap’ is shown to tend to generate in a rather systematic way quite serious political upheavals. Some demographic structural mechanisms that generate such upheavals have been analyzed, which has made it possible to develop a mathematical model of the respective processes. The forecast of political instability in Sub-Saharan African countries in 2015– 2050 produced on the basis of this model is presented.
    Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  32.  27
    Cosmic Evolution and Universal Evolutionary Principles.Leonid Grinin - 2015 - In Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev (eds.), Evolution: From Big Bang to Nanorobots. Volgograd,Russia: Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 20-45.
    The present article attempts at combining Big History potential with the potential of Evolutionary Studies in order to achieve the following goals: 1) to apply the historical narrative principle to the description of the star-galaxy era of the cosmic phase of Big History; 2) to analyze both the cosmic history and similarities and differences between evolutionary laws, principles, and mechanisms at various levels and phases of Big History. As far as I know, nobody has approached this task in a systemic (...)
    Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  33.  11
    Globalization And The Shifting Of Global Economic-Political Balance.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2014 - In Endre Kiss & Arisztotelész Kiadó (eds.), The Dialectics of Modernity - Recognizing Globalization. Studies on the Theoretical Perspectives of Globalization. Budapest: Publisherhouse Arostotelész. pp. 184-207.
    The article offers forecasts of the geopolitical and geo-economic development of the world in the forthcoming decades. One of the main accusations directed toward globalization is that it deepens the gap between the developed and developing countries dooming them to eternal backwardness. The article demonstrates that the actual situation is very different. It is shown that this is due to the globalization that the developing countries are generally growing much faster than the developed states, the World System core starts weakening (...)
    Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography   1 citation  
  34.  15
    Macrohistory and Globalization.Leonid Grinin - 2012 - Uchitel Publishing House.
    The present monograph considers some macrohistorical trends along with the aspects of globalization. Macrohistory is history on the large scale that tells the story of the entire world or of some major dimensions of historical process. For the present study three aspects of macrohistory have been chosen. These are technological and political aspects, as well as the one of historical personality. Taken together they give a definite picture of unfolding historical process which is described from the beginning of human society (...)
    Direct download  
    Translate
     
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography   2 citations  
  35.  32
    The Tiger and the Dragon. Development Models and Perspectives of India and China.Leonid Grinin - 2013 - Journal of Globalization Studies 4 (1):5-31.
    In the coming decades in the process of globalization the position of the USA and Europe will weaken, while the role of developing countries will increase. The role of the two largest emerging economies – China and India – will be of special significance. What future will these fast-growing giants face? The demographers agree that pretty soon India will lead the world in population and thus surpass China, while China will encounter serious ageing population problems. But economic and political scenarios (...)
    Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  36.  25
    Globalization, Revolutions, and Democracy.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2015 - In Leonid Grinin, Ilya Ilyin, Peter Herrmann & Andrey V. Korotayev (eds.), Globalistics and Globalization Studies: Big History & Global History. Volgograd,Russia: Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 87-109.
    This article studies the issue of democratization of countries within globalization context, it points to the unreasonably high economic and social costs of a rapid transition to democracy as a result of revolutions or of similar large-scale events for the countries unprepared for it. The authors believe that in a number of cases the authoritarian regimes turn out to be more effective in economic and social terms in comparison with emerging democracies especially of the revolutionary type, which are often incapable (...)
    Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  37.  9
    Введение. Юбилей Н. Д. Кондратьева в свете современных проблем мировой экономики.Leonid Grinin, Andrey Korotayev, Dmitri Bondarenko & R. Grinberg - 2018 - In Leonid Grinin, Andrey Korotayev & V. M. Bondarenko (eds.), Кондратьевские волны: к 125-летию со дня рождения Н. Д. Кондратьева: ежегодник. pp. 5-14.
    Есть исследователи, проблематика работ и теории которых остаются актуальными длительное время и после их смерти. К числу таких, несом- ненно, относится и Николай Дмитриевич Кондратьев – замечательный российский экономист, один из тех, чье имя довольно широко известно и за рубежом. И актуальность его идей тем более важно отметить в ознаме-нование 125-летнего юбилея Н. Д. Кондратьева, который мы отпраздновали в прошлом 2017 году. Именно этой теме – связи творчества Кондратьева и проблем современной экономики и экономической науки – и посвящены многие статьи (...)
    Direct download  
    Translate
     
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  38.  9
    Первый технологический уклад.Leonid Grinin - 2018 - In Leonid Grinin, Andrey Korotayev & V. M. Bondarenko (eds.), Кондратьевские волны: к 125-летию со дня рождения Н. Д. Кондратьева: ежегодник. Volgograd: Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 296–298.
    Основой первого технологического уклада стали прорывные инновации в текстильной промышленности. В 1730 г. Джоном Кеем был изобретен челночный ткацкий станок. В результате ткачество стало значительно опережать по объемам прядение. Наиболее быстрый процесс механизации прядения (а позже и других операций) начался в 1760–1770-е гг. Это было время изобретения Джеймсом Харгривсом прялки «Дженни» и Ричардом Аркрайтом – аппарата для механической фабрикации пряжи, используемого на его же фабриках. Но за этими успехами стоял труд немалого числа изобретателей предшествующих десятилетий (см.: Цейтлин 1940; Gri- nin, (...)
    Direct download (2 more)  
    Translate
     
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  39.  23
    Глобальное старение населения, шестой технологический уклад и мировая финансовая система.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2015 - In Leonid Grinin, Andrey Korotayev & V. Bondarenko (eds.), Кондратьевские волны: наследие и современность. Volgograd,Russia: Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 107-132.
    Процесс старения населения захватил не только развитые страны, но и многие развивающиеся, превратившись в глобальный. Представляется, что он будет одним из самых важных процессов в ближайшие десятилетия, определяющим облик общества буду-щего и направление развития технологий. В статье дается анализ некоторых параметров процесса старения населения, показыва-ются его важные следствия для общества и мира в целом. На ос-новании этого анализа делается вывод о том, что грядущий тех-нологический переворот (обозначаемый авторами как завершаю-щая фаза кибернетической революции) и предполагаемый шестой технологический уклад, связанный с наступающей (...)
    Direct download  
    Translate
     
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  40.  22
    Which Global Transformations Would the Global Crisis Lead To?Leonid Grinin - 2015 - This Globalizing World 1:42-66.
    This article analyzes the global causes of the contemporary crisis and the possibilities to eliminate the most acute problems that have generated this crisis. It analyzes both the negative role of the world financial flows and their important positive functions including the ‘insurance’ of social guaranties at the global scale. In connection with the outcome of the crisis it analyzes the conditions of possible transformations of the world system and the possibility of various global scripts of its near future. It (...)
    Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  41.  20
    Introduction. Research Into Global Ageing and Its Consequences.Leonid Grinin, J. Goldstone & Andrey Koortayev - 2015 - In Leonid Grinin, Jack A. Goldstone & Andrey V. Korotayev (eds.), History & Mathematics: Political Demography and Global Ageing. Volgograd,Russia: Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 5-9.
    With the further growth of the world population and the further intensification of the processes of interaction between countries and increasing movements of the masses of people, the role of Political Demography becomes more and more important. Issues of global ageing, migration, low fertility in developed countries (or very high fertility in some African countries), high mortality in many developing states (including deaths from AIDS); rapid change in the ethnic composition in Europe and in several other regions and many other (...)
    Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  42.  19
    Once More About Aspects, Directions, General Patterns and Principles of Evolutionary Development.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2015 - In Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev (eds.), Evolution: From Big Bang to Nanorobots. Volgograd,Russia: Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 5-19.
    The present volume is the fourth issue of the Almanac series entitled ‘Evolu-tion’. Thus, one can maintain that our Almanac, which has actually turned into a Yearbook, has succeeded (see below). The title of the present volume is ‘From Big Bang to Nanorobots’. In this way we demonstrate that all phases of megaevolution and Big History are cov-ered in the articles of the present Yearbook. Several articles also present fore-casts about possible future developments. The main objective of our Yearbook as (...)
    Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  43.  18
    Украинское государство как незавершенный политический проект: фрагментарное прошлое, кризисное настоящее, неясное будущее.Leonid Grinin - 2015 - In Leonid Grinin, Andrey Korotayev, L. Isayev & A. Shishkina (eds.), Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков: Украинский разлом. Volgograd,Russia: Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 84-126.
    Возникший глубокий кризис украинской государственности и идущая там, по сути, гражданская война вынуждают обратиться к причинам постоянных неудач формирования украинского государства. Многие на первый взгляд труднообъяснимые и откро-венно негативные особенности внешней и внутренней политики современной Украины в значительной степени связаны с геополитическими и историческими особенностями формирования государства, менталитета и традициями социально-политической психологии. Очевидно также, что многие отрицательно воздействующие на стабильность государства геополитические и геокультурные факторы прошлого не утратили своего значения до сих пор. Анализу этих факторов и их роли в разные (...)
    Direct download  
    Translate
     
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  44.  17
    Кибернетическая революция и шестой технологический уклад.Leonid Grinin & Anton Grinin - 2015 - Историческая Психология И Социология Истории 8 (1):172-197.
    В настоящей статье на базе теории принципов производства и производственных революций мы показываем взаимосвязь между К-волнами и крупнейшими технологическими переворотами в истории, а также делаем прогнозы об особенностях шестой К-волны в свете идущей с 1950-х годов кибернетической революции. Мы предполагаем, что шестая кондратьевская волна в 2030–2040-х годах сольется с завершающей фазой кибернетической революции (которую мы назвали фазой самоуправляемых систем). Этот период будет характеризоваться прорывом в медицинских технологиях, которые смогут объединить вокруг себя много других технологий и в целом составят комплекс МБНРИК-технологий (...)
    Direct download  
    Translate
     
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  45.  17
    From Big Bang to Galactic Civilizations.Leonid Grinin, Barry Rodrigue & Andrey Korotayev - 2015 - In From Big Bang to Galactic Civilizations: A Big History Anthology. Delhi, India: Primus Books. pp. 1-18.
    Each scientific study emerges in its own particular time and marks a new step in the development of human thought.1 Big History materialized to satisfy the human need for a unified vision of our existence. It came together in the waning decades of the twentieth century, in part, as a reaction to the specialization of scholarship and education that had taken hold around the world. While this specialization had great results, it created barriers that stood in contrast to a growing (...)
    Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  46.  12
    Origins of Globalization in the Framework of the Afroeurasian World-System History.Leonid Grinin & Andrey V. Korotayev - 2014 - Journal of Globalization Studies 5 (1):32-64.
    The formation of the Afroeurasian world-system was one of the crucial points of social evolution, starting from which the social evolution rate and effectiveness increased dramatically. In the present article we analyze processes and scales of global integration in historical perspective, starting with the Agrarian Revolution. We connect the main phases of historical globalization with the processes of the development of the Afroeurasian world-system. In the framework of the Afroeurasian world-system the integration began a few thousand years BCE. In this (...)
    Direct download (2 more)  
    Translate
     
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  47.  41
    The Coming Epoch of New Coalitions: Possible Scenarios of the Near Future.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2011 - World Futures 67 (8):531 - 563.
    This article analyzes some important aspects of socioeconomic and political development of the world in the near future. The future always stems from the present. The first part of the article is devoted to the study of some crucial events of the present, which could be regarded as precursors of forthcoming fundamental changes. In particular, it is shown that the turbulent events of late 2010 and 2011 in the Arab World may well be regarded as a start of the global (...)
    Direct download (4 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography   2 citations  
  48. Hierarchy and Power in the History of Civilisations: Political Aspects of Modernity.Leonid Grinin, Dmitry Beliaev & Andrey Korotayev (eds.) - 2008 - Librocom.
    The human history has evidenced a great number of systems of hierarchy and power, various manifestations of power and hierarchy relations in different spheres of social life from politics to information networks, from culture to sexual life. A careful study of each particular case of such relations is very im-portant, especially within the context of contemporary multipolar and multicultural world. In the meantime it is very important to see both the general features, typical for all or most of the hierarchy (...)
    Translate
     
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography   2 citations  
  49.  47
    A Mathematical Model of Juglar Cycles and the Current Global Crisis.Leonid Grinin, Andrey Korotayev & Sergey Malkov - 2010 - In Leonid Grinin, Peter Herrmann, Andrey Korotayev & Arno Tausch (eds.), History & Mathematics: Processes and Models of Global Dynamics.
    The article presents a verbal and mathematical model of medium-term business cycles (with a characteristic period of 7–11 years) known as Juglar cycles. The model takes into account a number of approaches to the analysis of such cycles; in the meantime it also takes into account some of the authors' own generalizations and additions that are important for understanding the internal logic of the cycle, its variability and its peculiarities in the present-time conditions. The authors argue that the most important (...)
    Direct download  
    Translate
     
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography   2 citations  
  50.  15
    КИБЕРНЕТИЧЕСКАЯ РЕВОЛЮЦИЯ И ИСТОРИЧЕСКИЙ ПРОЦЕСС (ТЕХНОЛОГИИ БУДУЩЕГО В СВЕТЕ ТЕОРИИ ПРОИЗВОДСТВЕННЫХ РЕВОЛЮЦИЙ).Leonid Grinin & Anton Grinin - 2015 - Философия И Общество 1:17-47.
    В статье на базе анализа технологических изменений, которые про-изошли во второй половине XX и в начале XXI в., опираясь на возможно-сти теории производственных революций, подробно исследуется послед-няя производственная революция, которая названа кибернетической, и даются прогнозы о ее развитии в ближайшие пятьдесят лет. Показано, что основное направление этой революции будет заключаться в раз-витии разнообразных самоуправляемых систем, а первоначальный пере-ход к началу завершающей фазы кибернетической революции начнется в области медицины (в каких-то ее инновационных областях). В дальней-шем начнется конвергенция инновационных технологий, которые обра-зуют (...)
    Direct download  
    Translate
     
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
1 — 50 / 99