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Leonid Grinin [96]Leonid E. Grinin [2]
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Leonid Grinin
National Research University Higher School of Economics
  1.  21
    Macrohistory and Globalization.Leonid Grinin - 2012 - Uchitel Publishing House.
    The present monograph considers some macrohistorical trends along with the aspects of globalization. Macrohistory is history on the large scale that tells the story of the entire world or of some major dimensions of historical process. For the present study three aspects of macrohistory have been chosen. These are technological and political aspects, as well as the one of historical personality. Taken together they give a definite picture of unfolding historical process which is described from the beginning of human society (...)
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  2. Will the Global Crisis Lead to Global Transformations? 2. The Coming Epoch of New Coalitions.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2010 - Journal of Globalization Studies 1 (2):166-183.
    This article presents possible answers, and their respective probabilities, to the question, ‘What are the consequences of the present global crisis in the proximate future of the World System?’ It also attempts to describe the basic characteristics of the forthcoming ‘Epoch of New Coalitions’ and to forecast certain future conditions. Among the problems analyzed in this paper are the following: What does the weakening of the economic role of the USA as the World System centre mean? Will there be a (...)
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  3.  81
    Введение. Юбилей Н. Д. Кондратьева в свете современных проблем мировой экономики.Leonid Grinin, Andrey Korotayev, Dmitri Bondarenko & R. Grinberg - 2018 - In Leonid Grinin, Andrey Korotayev & V. M. Bondarenko (eds.), Кондратьевские волны: к 125-летию со дня рождения Н. Д. Кондратьева: ежегодник. pp. 5-14.
    Есть исследователи, проблематика работ и теории которых остаются актуальными длительное время и после их смерти. К числу таких, несом- ненно, относится и Николай Дмитриевич Кондратьев – замечательный российский экономист, один из тех, чье имя довольно широко известно и за рубежом. И актуальность его идей тем более важно отметить в ознаме-нование 125-летнего юбилея Н. Д. Кондратьева, который мы отпраздновали в прошлом 2017 году. Именно этой теме – связи творчества Кондратьева и проблем современной экономики и экономической науки – и посвящены многие статьи (...)
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  4. The Cybernetic Revolution and Historical Process.Leonid Grinin & Anton Grinin - 2015 - Social Evolution and History 14 (1):125-184.
    The article analyzes the technological shifts which took place in the second half of the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries and predict the main shifts in the next half a century. On the basis of the analysis of the latest achievements in medicine, bio- and nanotechnologies, robotics, ICT and other technological directions and also on the basis of the opportunities provided by the theory of production revolutions the authors present a detailed analysis of the latest production revolution which is denoted (...)
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  5. Economic Cycles, Crises, and the Global Periphery.Leonid Grinin, Arno Tausch & Andrey Korotayev (eds.) - 2016 - Switzerland: Springer International Publishing Switzerland.
    This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifi cally the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfi lms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this (...)
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  6. Дефляция как болезнь современных развитых стран.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2015 - In Анализ и моделирование мировой и страновой динамики: методология и базовые модели. Moscow,Russia: Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 241-270.
    В последние два-три года среди многочислен- ных проблем в отношении европейской и американской экономики все чаще стала упоминаться опасность дефляции. При этом в каче- стве примера рассматривается японская экономика, которая уже два десятилетия страдает от дефляции, несмотря на огромные раз- меры финансовых вливаний и усилия правительства разогнать ин- фляцию. В западных экономиках инфляция также низкая, времена- ми нулевая, переходящая в дефляцию. В целом есть основания счи- тать, что страны Европы заболевают «японской болезнью», а также что эта «болезнь» может прогрессировать либо (...)
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  7. State and Socio-Political Crises in the Process of Modernization.Leonid Grinin - 2013 - Social Evolution and History 12 (2):35-76.
    This article starts with a brief analysis of the causes of state collapse as states undergo the process of political evolution. Next, I describe and analyze the mechanisms of social-political crises arising in the process of modernization. Such crises are a consequence of the inability of many traditional institutions and ideologies to keep up with changes in technology, communication, system of education, medical sphere, and with the demographic change. This analysis suggests that an accelerated development can cause a system crisis (...)
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  8. Social Macroevolution: Growth of the World System Integrity and a System of Phase Transitions.Andrey Korotayev & Leonid Grinin - 2009 - World Futures 65 (7):477-506.
    There are very significant conceptual links between theories of social macroevolution and theories of the World System development. It is shown that the growth of the World System complexity and integrity can be traced through a system of phase transitions of macroevolution. The first set of phase transition is connected with the agrarian, industrial, and information-scientific revolutions (that are interpreted as changes of “production principles”). The second set consists of phase transitions within one production principle. These phase transitions are analyzed (...)
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  9. World Order in the Past, Present, and Future.Leonid Grinin, Alexey Andreev & Ilya Illin - 2016 - Social EvolutionandHistory 15 (1):58-84.
    The present article analyzes the world order in the past, present and future as well as the main factors, foundations and ideas underlying the maintaining and change of the international and global order. The first two sections investigate the evolution of the world order starting from the ancient times up to the late twentieth century. The third section analyzes the origin and decline of the world order based on the American hegemony. The authors reveal the contradictions of the current unipolar (...)
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  10.  87
    Which Global Transformations Would the Global Crisis Lead To?Leonid Grinin - 2015 - This Globalizing World 1:42-66.
    This article analyzes the global causes of the contemporary crisis and the possibilities to eliminate the most acute problems that have generated this crisis. It analyzes both the negative role of the world financial flows and their important positive functions including the ‘insurance’ of social guaranties at the global scale. In connection with the outcome of the crisis it analyzes the conditions of possible transformations of the world system and the possibility of various global scripts of its near future. It (...)
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  11.  54
    A Mathematical Model of Juglar Cycles and the Current Global Crisis.Leonid Grinin, Andrey Korotayev & Sergey Malkov - 2010 - In Leonid Grinin, Peter Herrmann, Andrey Korotayev & Arno Tausch (eds.), History & Mathematics: Processes and Models of Global Dynamics.
    The article presents a verbal and mathematical model of medium-term business cycles (with a characteristic period of 7–11 years) known as Juglar cycles. The model takes into account a number of approaches to the analysis of such cycles; in the meantime it also takes into account some of the authors' own generalizations and additions that are important for understanding the internal logic of the cycle, its variability and its peculiarities in the present-time conditions. The authors argue that the most important (...)
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  12.  56
    Does “Arab Spring” Mean The Beginning Of World System Reconfiguration?Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2012 - World Futures 68 (7):471 - 505.
    In a previous article, ?The Coming Epoch of New Coalitions: Possible Scenarios of the Near Future? (Grinin and Korotayev 2011), it was preliminarily demonstrated that the turbulent events of late 2010 and 2011 in the Arab World may well be regarded as a start of the global reconfiguration. The subsequent events have confirmed this supposition. That is why in the present article we develop this important theme. The article offers a thorough analysis of the internal conditions of Arab countries on (...)
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  13.  36
    Globalization Shuffles Cards of the World Pack: In Which Direction is the Global Economic-Political Balance Shifting?Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2014 - World Futures 70 (8):515-545.
    The article offers forecasts of the geopolitical and geo-economic development of the world in the forthcoming decades. One of the main accusations directed toward globalization is that it deepens the gap between the developed and developing countries dooming them to eternal backwardness. The article demonstrates that the actual situation is very different. It is shown that this is due to the globalization that the developing countries are generally growing much faster than the developed states, the World System core starts weakening (...)
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  14.  94
    Cybernetic Revolution and Forthcoming Technological Transformations (The Development of the Leading Technologies in the Light of the Theory of Production Revolutions).Leonid Grinin & Anton Grinin - 2015 - In Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev (eds.), Evolution: From Big Bang to Nanorobots. Volgograd,Russia: Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 251-330.
    The article analyzes the technological shifts which took place in the second half of the 20th and early 21st centuries and forecasts the main shifts in the next half a century. On the basis of the analysis of the latest achievements in inno-vative technological directions and also on the basis of the opportunities pro-vided by the theory of production revolutions the authors present a detailed analysis of the latest production revolution which is denoted as ‘Сybernetic’. The authors give some forecasts (...)
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  15.  53
    The Coming Epoch of New Coalitions: Possible Scenarios of the Near Future.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2011 - World Futures 67 (8):531 - 563.
    This article analyzes some important aspects of socioeconomic and political development of the world in the near future. The future always stems from the present. The first part of the article is devoted to the study of some crucial events of the present, which could be regarded as precursors of forthcoming fundamental changes. In particular, it is shown that the turbulent events of late 2010 and 2011 in the Arab World may well be regarded as a start of the global (...)
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  16. Globalization And The Shifting Of Global Economic-Political Balance.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2014 - In Endre Kiss & Arisztotelész Kiadó (eds.), The Dialectics of Modernity - Recognizing Globalization. Studies on the Theoretical Perspectives of Globalization. Budapest: Publisherhouse Arostotelész. pp. 184-207.
    The article offers forecasts of the geopolitical and geo-economic development of the world in the forthcoming decades. One of the main accusations directed toward globalization is that it deepens the gap between the developed and developing countries dooming them to eternal backwardness. The article demonstrates that the actual situation is very different. It is shown that this is due to the globalization that the developing countries are generally growing much faster than the developed states, the World System core starts weakening (...)
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  17. Global Technological Perspectives in the Light of Cybernetic Revolution and Theory of Long Cycles.Leonid Grinin & Anton Grinin - 2015 - Journal of Globalization Studies 6 (2):119-142.
    In the present paper, on the basis of the theory of production principles and production revolutions, we reveal the interrelation between K-waves and major technological breakthroughs in history and make some predictions about features of the sixth Kondratieff wave in the light of the Cybernetic Revolution which, we think, started in the 1950s. We assume that the sixth K-wave in the 2030s and 2040s will merge with the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution (which we call the phase of self-regulating (...)
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  18. Interaction Between Kondratieff Waves and Juglar Cycles.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2014 - In Kondratieff Waves. Juglar – Kuznets – Kondratieff. Volgograd, Russia: Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 25-95.
    Some important correlations between medium-term economic cycles (7–11 years) known as Juglar cycles and long (40–60 years) Kondratieff cycles are presented in this paper. The research into the history of this issue shows that this aspect is insufficiently studied. Meanwhile, in our opinion, it can significantly clarify both the reasons of alternation of upswing and downswing phases in K-waves and the reasons of relative stability of the length of these waves. It also can provide the certain means for forecasting. The (...)
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  19.  94
    The Sixth Kondratieff Wave and the Cybernetic Revolution.Leonid Grinin & Anton Grinin - 2016 - Globalistics and Globalization Studies:337-355.
    In the present paper, on the basis of the theory of production principles and production revolutions, we reveal the interrelation between K-waves and major technological breakthroughs in history and make forecasts about features of the sixth Kondratieff wave in the light of the Cybernetic Revolution that, from our point of view, started in the 1950s. We assume that the sixth K-wave in the 2030s and 2040s will merge with the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution (which we call a phase (...)
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  20. Will the Explosive Growth of China Continue?Leonid Grinin, Sergey Tsirel & Andrey Korotayev - 2015 - Technological Forecasting and Social Change 95:394-308.
    The role of China in the world economy is constantly growing. In particular we observe that it plays more and more important role in the support of theworld economic growth (as well as high prices of certain very important commodities). In the meantime the perspectives of the Chinese economy (as well as possible fates of the Chinese society) remain unclear, whereas respective forecasts look rather contradictory. That is why the search for new aspects and modes of analysis of possible development (...)
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  21.  20
    Production Revolutions and Periodization of History: A Comparative and Theoretic-Mathematical Approach.Leonid Grinin - 2007 - Social Evolution and History 6 (2).
    There is no doubt that periodization is a rather effective method of data ordering and analysis, but it deals with exceptionally complex types of processual and temporal phenomena and thus it simplifies historical reality. Many scholars emphasize the great importance of periodization for the study of history. In fact, any periodization suffers from one-sidedness and certain deviations from reality. However, the number and significance of such deviations can be radically diminished as the effectiveness of periodization is directly connected with its (...)
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  22. Украинское государство как незавершенный политический проект: фрагментарное прошлое, кризисное настоящее, неясное будущее.Leonid Grinin - 2015 - In Leonid Grinin, Andrey Korotayev, L. Isayev & A. Shishkina (eds.), Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков: Украинский разлом. Volgograd,Russia: Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 84-126.
    Возникший глубокий кризис украинской государственности и идущая там, по сути, гражданская война вынуждают обратиться к причинам постоянных неудач формирования украинского государства. Многие на первый взгляд труднообъяснимые и откро-венно негативные особенности внешней и внутренней политики современной Украины в значительной степени связаны с геополитическими и историческими особенностями формирования государства, менталитета и традициями социально-политической психологии. Очевидно также, что многие отрицательно воздействующие на стабильность государства геополитические и геокультурные факторы прошлого не утратили своего значения до сих пор. Анализу этих факторов и их роли в разные (...)
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  23.  76
    Global Population Ageing, the Sixth Kondratieff Wave, and the Global Financial System.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2016 - Journal of Globalization Studies 7 (2):11-31.
    Concerns about population ageing apply to both developed and many developing countries and it has turned into a global issue. In the forthcoming decades the population ageing is likely to become one of the most important processes determining the future society characteristics and the direction of technological development. The present paper analyzes some aspects of the population ageing and its important consequences for particular societies and the whole world. Basing on this analysis, we can draw a conclusion that the future (...)
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  24. The Tiger and the Dragon. Development Models and Perspectives of India and China.Leonid Grinin - 2013 - Journal of Globalization Studies 4 (1):5-31.
    In the coming decades in the process of globalization the position of the USA and Europe will weaken, while the role of developing countries will increase. The role of the two largest emerging economies – China and India – will be of special significance. What future will these fast-growing giants face? The demographers agree that pretty soon India will lead the world in population and thus surpass China, while China will encounter serious ageing population problems. But economic and political scenarios (...)
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  25. Кибернетическая революция и шестой технологический уклад.Leonid Grinin & Anton Grinin - 2015 - Историческая Психология И Социология Истории 8 (1):172-197.
    В настоящей статье на базе теории принципов производства и производственных революций мы показываем взаимосвязь между К-волнами и крупнейшими технологическими переворотами в истории, а также делаем прогнозы об особенностях шестой К-волны в свете идущей с 1950-х годов кибернетической революции. Мы предполагаем, что шестая кондратьевская волна в 2030–2040-х годах сольется с завершающей фазой кибернетической революции (которую мы назвали фазой самоуправляемых систем). Этот период будет характеризоваться прорывом в медицинских технологиях, которые смогут объединить вокруг себя много других технологий и в целом составят комплекс МБНРИК-технологий (...)
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  26. The Pathways of Politogenesis and Models of the Early State Formation.Leonid Grinin - 2009 - Social Evolution and History 8 (1):92-132.
    This article considers concrete manifestations of the politogenesis multilinearity and the variation of its forms; it analyzes the main causes that determined the politogenetic pathway of a given society. The respective factors include the polity's size, its ecological and social environment. The politogenesis should be never reduced to the only one evolutionary pathway leading to the statehood. The early state formation was only one of many versions of development of complex late archaic social systems. The author designates various complex non-state (...)
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  27. A Trap at the Escape From the Trap? Some Demographic Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modernizing Social Systems.Leonid Grinin, Andrey V. Korotayev & Sergey Yu Malkov - 2014 - In History & Mathematics: Trends and Cycles. Volgograd, Russia: Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 201-267.
    The escape from the ‘Malthusian trap’ is shown to tend to generate in a rather systematic way quite serious political upheavals. Some demographic structural mechanisms that generate such upheavals have been analyzed, which has made it possible to develop a mathematical model of the respective processes. The forecast of political instability in Sub-Saharan African countries in 2015– 2050 produced on the basis of this model is presented.
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  28. Macroevolution of Technology.Leonid Grinin & Anton Grinin - 2013 - Evolution: Development Within Different Paradigms 6 (11):143-178.
    What determines the transition of a society from one level of development to another? One of the most fundamental causes is the global technological transformations. Among all major technological breakthroughs in history the most important are the three production revolutions: 1) the Agrarian Revolution; 2) the Industrial Revolution and 3) the Scientific-Information Revolution which will transform into the Cybernetic one. The article introduces the Theory of Production Revolutions. This is a new explanatory paradigm which is of value when analyzing causes (...)
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  29.  76
    Kondratieff Waves in the Global Studies Perspective.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2014 - In Leonid Grinin, Ilya V. Ilyin & Andrey V. Korotayev (eds.), Globalistics and Globalization Studies. Volgograd: Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 65-98.
    The analysis of long economic cycles allows us to understand long-term worldsystem dynamics, to develop forecasts, to explain crises of the past, as well as the current global economic crisis. The article offers a historical sketch of research on K-waves; it analyzes the nature of Kondratieff waves that are considered as a special form of cyclical dynamics that emerged in the industrial period of the World System history. It offers a historical and theoretical analysis of K-wave dynamics in the World (...)
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  30.  39
    Aromorphoses in Biological and Social Evolution: Some General Rules for Biological and Social Forms of Macroevolution.Leonid Grinin, Alexander Markov, Markov & Andrey Korotayev - 2009 - Social Evolution and History 8 (2).
    The comparison between biological and social macroevolution is a very important (though insufficiently studied) subject whose analysis renders new significant possibilities to comprehend the processes, trends, mechanisms, and peculiarities of each of the two types of macroevolution. Of course, there are a few rather important (and very understandable) differences between them; however, it appears possible to identify a number of fundamental similarities. One may single out at least three fundamental sets of factors determining those similarities. First of all, those similarities (...)
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  31.  45
    The Tiger and the Dragon.Leonid Grinin - 2014 - In Leonid Grinin, Ilya V. Ilyin & Andrey V. Korotayev (eds.), Globalistics and Globalization Studies. Volgograd: Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 184-208.
    In the coming decades in the process of globalization the position of the USA and Europe will weaken, while the role of developing countries will increase. The role of the two largest emerging economies – China and India – will be of special significance. What future will these fast-growing giants face? The demographers agree that pretty soon India will lead the world in population and thus surpass China, while China will encounter serious population ageing. But economic and political scenarios of (...)
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  32.  14
    The Early State and Its Analogues: A Comparative Analysis.Leonid E. Grinin - 2004 - In Leonid Grinin, Robert Carneiro, Dmitri Bondarenko, Nikolay Kradin & Andrey Korotayev (eds.), The Early State, its Alternatives and Analogues. ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House. pp. 88--136.
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  33. Контуры нового мирового порядка.Leonid Grinin - 2015 - Философия И Общество 3 (4):7-33.
    Мировой порядок как система определенных идей и правил, господ-ствующих в международной политике, стал формироваться в Европе начиная с XVI в., окончательно утвердившись в XIX столетии. Однако этот порядок держится обычно в пределах трех-четырех десятилетий, а затем под влиянием изменившихся обстоятельств и нового баланса сил меняется. В настоящее время мы как раз переживаем период смены ми-рового порядка и начала формирования новой его системы. В статье анализируется начало ослабления мирового порядка, основанного на американской гегемонии, рассматриваются характерные черты и методы, которые используют США (...)
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  34.  46
    Transformation of Sovereignty and Globalization.Leonid Grinin - 2008 - In Leonid Grinin, Dmitry Beliaev & Andrey Korotayev (eds.), Hierarchy and Power in the History of Civilisations: Political Aspects of Modernity. Librocom.
    . In our opinion, the processes of changing of sovereignty nowadays are among those of much significance. Presumably, if such processes (of course with much fluctuation) gain strength it will surely affect all spheres of life, including change of ideology and social psychology (the moment which is still underestimated by many analysts). Generally speaking, notwithstanding an avalanche of works devoted to the transformation of sovereignty, some topical aspects of the problem mentioned appear to have been disregarded. The present article is (...)
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  35. Origins of Globalization in the Framework of the Afroeurasian World-System History.Leonid Grinin & Andrey V. Korotayev - 2014 - Journal of Globalization Studies 5 (1):32-64.
    The formation of the Afroeurasian world-system was one of the crucial points of social evolution, starting from which the social evolution rate and effectiveness increased dramatically. In the present article we analyze processes and scales of global integration in historical perspective, starting with the Agrarian Revolution. We connect the main phases of historical globalization with the processes of the development of the Afroeurasian world-system. In the framework of the Afroeurasian world-system the integration began a few thousand years BCE. In this (...)
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  36.  26
    Early State, Developed State, Mature State: The Statehood Evolutionary Sequence.Leonid Grinin - 2008 - Social Evolution and History 7 (1).
    In the theory of the early state it was fundamentally new and important from a methodological point of view to define the early state as a separate stage of evolution essentially different from the following stage, the one of the full-grown or mature state. ‘To reach the early state level is one thing, to develop into a full-blown, or mature state is quite another’ (Claessen and Skalník 1978b: 22). At the same time they (as well as a number of other (...)
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  37. Globalization and the World System Evolution.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2013 - Evolution: Development Within Different Paradigms 6 (11):30-68.
    The formation of the Afroeurasian world-system was one of the crucial points of social evolution, starting from which the social evolution rate and effective-ness increased dramatically. In the present article we analyze processes and scales of global integration in historical perspective, starting with the Agrarian Revolution. We connect the main phases of historical globalization with the processes of development of the Afroeurasian world-system. In the framework of the Afroeurasian world-system the integration began a few thousand years Before the Common Era. (...)
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  38.  72
    Новый мировой порядок и эпоха глобализации. Ст. 1. Американская гегемония: апогей и ослабление. Что дальше?Leonid Grinin - 2015 - Век Глобализации 2:2-17.
    В настоящей статье рассматривается, как формировался, разви-вался и начал ослабевать мировой порядок, основанный на американской гегемонии, анализируются истоки установления современного мирового порядка. Дается анализ характерных черт и методов, которые используют США для поддержания своих позиций в мире. Автор показывает также, каким образом глобализация стала более выгодной для развивающихся стран, а не для развитых, а также как постепенно формировалось убеждение в неизбежности ослабления лидерских позиций США. В статье дается характеристика современной ситуации в международных отношениях как обстановки, в которой началась реконфигурация Мир-Системы. (...)
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  39.  21
    The Early State, Its Alternatives and Analogues.Leonid Grinin, Robert Carneiro, Dmitri Bondarenko, Nikolay Kradin & Andrey Korotayev (eds.) - 2004 - ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House.
    Henri JM Claessen Was the State Inevitable? ● Leonid E. Grinin The Early State and Its Analogues: A Comparative Analysis ...
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  40.  40
    Early State and Democracy.Leonid Grinin - 2004 - In Leonid Grinin, Robert Carneiro, Dmitri Bondarenko, Nikolay Kradin & Andrey Korotayev (eds.), The Early State, Its Alternatives and Analogues. ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House. pp. 419--463.
    The present article is devoted to the problem which is debated actively to-day, namely whether Greek poleis and the Roman Republic were early states or they represented a specific type of stateless societies. In particular, Moshe Berent examines this problem by the example of Athens in his contribution to this volume. He arrives at the conclusion that Athens was a stateless society. However, I am of the opinion that this conclusion is wrong: and I believe that Athens and Rome were (...)
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  41.  68
    Introduction. Modeling and Measuring Cycles, Processes, and Trends.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2014 - In History & Mathematics: Trends and Cycles. Volgograd, Russia: Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 5-8.
    The present Yearbook (which is the fourth in the series) is subtitled Trends & Cycles. Already ancient historians (see, e.g., the second Chapter of Book VI of Polybius' Histories) described rather well the cyclical component of historical dynamics, whereas new interesting analyses of such dynamics also appeared in the Medieval and Early Modern periods (see, e.g., Ibn Khaldūn 1958 [1377], or Machiavelli 1996 [1531] 1). This is not surprising as the cyclical dynamics was dominant in the agrarian social systems. With (...)
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  42. Urbanization and Political Development of the World System.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2013 - Entelequia 15:197-255.
    Section 1 of this article presents a mathematical analysis of the longterm global urbanization dynamics and demonstrates that it could be described as a series of phase transitions between attraction basins. This makes it possible to suggest new approaches to the analysis of global social macroevolution. Section 2 presents a threestage model of the macroevolution of the World System statehood (early – developed – mature state) that, we believe, describes the main features of political macroevolution better than the twostage model (...)
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  43. Hierarchy and Power in the History of Civilisations: Political Aspects of Modernity.Leonid Grinin, Dmitry Beliaev & Andrey Korotayev (eds.) - 2008 - Librocom.
    The human history has evidenced a great number of systems of hierarchy and power, various manifestations of power and hierarchy relations in different spheres of social life from politics to information networks, from culture to sexual life. A careful study of each particular case of such relations is very im-portant, especially within the context of contemporary multipolar and multicultural world. In the meantime it is very important to see both the general features, typical for all or most of the hierarchy (...)
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  44. Revolution and Democracy in the Context of the Globalization.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2014 - In Endre Kiss & Arisztotelész Kiadó (eds.), The Dialectics of Modernity - Recognizing Globalization. Studies on the Theoretical Perspectives of Globalization. Budapest: Publisherhouse Arostotelész. pp. 119-140.
    This article studies the issue of the democratization of countries within the globalization context, it points to the unreasonably high economic and social costs of a rapid transition to the democracy as a result of revolutions of the similar large-scale events for those countries that are unprepared for this.
     
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  45.  11
    Alternatives of Social Evolution.Dmitri M. Bondarenko, Leonid E. Grinin & Andrey V. Korotayev - 2004 - In Leonid Grinin, Robert Carneiro, Dmitri Bondarenko, Nikolay Kradin & Andrey Korotayev (eds.), The Early State, its Alternatives and Analogues. ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House. pp. 3--27.
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  46.  25
    Complex Chiefdom: Precursor of the State or Its Analogue?Leonid Grinin - 2011 - Social Evolution and History 10 (1):234–275.
    It is often noted in the academic literature that chiefdoms frequently prove to be troublesome for scholars because of the disagreement as to whether to categorize this or that polity as a complex chiefdom or as an early state. This is no wonder, because complex chiefdoms, early states, as well as different other types of sociopolitical systems (large confederations, large self-governed civil and temple communities etc.) turn out to be at the same evolutionary level. In the present article it is (...)
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  47. Анализ и моделирование мировой и страновой динамики: методология и базовые модели.Leonid Grinin (ed.) - 2015 - Uchitel Publishing House.
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  48. Эволюция. Мегаистория и глобальная эволюция.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev (eds.) - 2015 - Uchitel Publishing House.
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  49. Исторические и геополитические причины социально-политического кризиса на Украине.Leonid Grinin - 2015 - История И Современность 2:3-44.
    Проблема социально-политического кризиса на Украине комплексная. Для анализа современного кризиса необходимо использовать различные методы и теории. В настоящей статье для определения исторических и геоисторических причин современного кризиса активно использованы ис-торико-генетический и историко-сравнительный методы. Многие на первый взгляд труднообъяснимые и откровенно негативные особенности внешней и внутренней политики современной Украины в значительной степени связаны с геополитическими и историческими особенностями формирования государства, менталитета и традициями социально-политической психологии. Очевидно также, что многие отрицательно воздействующие на стабильность государства геополитические и гео-культурные факторы прошлого не утратили своего (...)
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  50. Глобальное старение населения, шестой технологический уклад и мировая финансовая система.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2015 - In Leonid Grinin, Andrey Korotayev & V. Bondarenko (eds.), Кондратьевские волны: наследие и современность. Volgograd,Russia: Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 107-132.
    Процесс старения населения захватил не только развитые страны, но и многие развивающиеся, превратившись в глобальный. Представляется, что он будет одним из самых важных процессов в ближайшие десятилетия, определяющим облик общества буду-щего и направление развития технологий. В статье дается анализ некоторых параметров процесса старения населения, показыва-ются его важные следствия для общества и мира в целом. На ос-новании этого анализа делается вывод о том, что грядущий тех-нологический переворот (обозначаемый авторами как завершаю-щая фаза кибернетической революции) и предполагаемый шестой технологический уклад, связанный с наступающей (...)
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